Louisville +2
Think I may be able to squeeze out another half point or so if I waited, but I don't want to take any chances as 2 points could be huge here. I think this is a very favorable matchup for the Cardinals. They have the guards that can keep up with Nova with their athleticism and quickness, but they have the size with their front court that can really exploit a small Villanova squad. You have to remember that these are still the exact same teams where Louisville was seen a legit final 4 contender, and Nova a middle of the pack Big East team. The Cards have suffered some very tough losses, including a home loss to Western kentucky, and a loss on neutral court to Minnesota. However since then they have been playing much better ball. Most importantly when it seemed all as lost, and Edgar Sosa had finally dug himself so far into Pitino's doghouse you wondered if he would ever see light again, he has exploded and really been the difference in Louisville's resurgence the past 2 games. After going scoreless and scoring 6 points against UAB, and then playing 12 minutes and 2 points in a loss against UNLV, Sosa has busted out and scored 18 and 12 points the last 2 games against Kentucky and So Florida. It may not seem like a lot, but Sosa is the type of player who must be feeling good to perform well. He is an extremely streaky player who can bury a team when he is down, but carry a team when he is on. I really think he has turned the corner and will be an important factor in Saturday's outcome against Nova. They are going to need his experience and ball handling against a guard oriented Nova squad. With Sosa coming in on a high note the Cards have an excellent shot at stealing the win. Between Sosa, Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles, and Andre McGee the Cards have the experience and the athletes to hold their own against Villanova's excellent back court. Now to where the game will be won; the front court. I just don't see how Villanova can match up with this Louisville front line. Between Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, and Samardo Samuels the Cards have 3 legit all league players. They should be able to control the glass against an under sized Wildcat team. Samuels is an absolute work horse down low and should have his way. Clark and Williams are both well rounded players, who athleitcism will be tough to match. When looking at teams similar to Nova's personnel they absolutely dominated the glass against UNLV +9, UAB +16, and Ole Miss +16. None of those teams have a dominant big man, and all play a similar 4 guard lineup such as Villanova. Louisville has been +12.3 on the glass the past 9 games and this should continue, and play a major role in deciding the outcome of the game. There is no denying the talent is there for Louisville it is just a matter of putting it all together. With Sosa's improved play, and Louisville responding with 2 big wins (Kentucky, @ So Fla), I think they have enough momentum to go into Philly and coming out with the win. This is a tough match up for Nova. Look for Louisville's guard to play well enough while their front court is the deciding factor.
