- Status
: Gotta love it. I loathheee Marquette. They should have been beaten by providence.
I told myself if ND had beat UConn I would fade vs Marq, if they lost I would bet them vs Marq. I will more then likely be joining you.
Tough loss on WVU as Pitt is just better. Knew when they were down it at halftime it was over as they suck in the 2nd half and hedged it.
Lately these small home favorites have lost, but I'm on the ND bandwagon too. They don't have the depth and size that UConn has.
Also looking at Oklahoma as they haven't gotten respect by Vegas all year.
Lately these small home favorites have lost, but I'm on the ND bandwagon too. They don't have the depth and size that UConn has.
Also looking at Oklahoma as they haven't gotten respect by Vegas all year.
shitty loss on wvu yesterday first big bet i lost in a long while. pitt played a perfect game and when that happens your gonna lose no matter what. o well teams play in 2 weeks. as for nd tonight i was going to bet them tonight once they lost against uconn saturday but im sick of getting burned on these worst teams barely favored at home situational bets, think ill just pass on it.
Oklahoma St + ?
I am going to make a play on Oklahoma St probably for 4 units? I could have got +3.5 a little bit ago, but held off and the line dropped to +2.5. I think I may be able to squeeze out another half point at absolute worst so going to hold off before playing, and officially posting it as a play. I will play however, and if I have to play at +2.5 it will be for 3 units. Anyways onto the game.
I think I have a few things working for Ok St here. First this is a rivalry game so without a doubt will be played with a lot of intensity. Stillwater is an extremely tough place to play. Ok St is always very good at home, and would like nothing more than to upset their arch rival. But is this even an upset at home? Not really imo. Fact is statistically Ok St is better in many areas of the game. The Cowboys have a lot of firepower with 5 double figure scorers, where Oklahoma relies on 2 scorers for the majority of their offense. Say 1 of those players (cough Griffin) has an off game, then what? Look at this firepower; James Anderson 18ppg, Obi Muonelo 15.6, Terrel Harris 14.3, Byron Eaton 13.6, Keaton Page 10.2. That is some serious scoring, and that is why Oklahoma St is 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring at 85.4 ppg, and are barely out of 1st place. In fact Ok St is tops on most offensive categories. Along with 2nd in scoring they are 2nd in free throw % , and they lead the Big 12 in 3 point %, and 2nd in the nation with a 41.5% . Their ability to shoot the 3 ball can easily negate Griffin's advantage down low. The 3 can chance the outlook of the game in many ways. Throw in the fact that OU has been struggling to guard the line (last 3 gms Texas AM 43.8%, Nebraska 40.8%, Baylor 35.4%), and the Sooners could be in trouble against their rival. Although OK St will be at a disadvantage down low they still have managed to out rebound 3 of their 4 Big 12 opponents. They have an athletic team, and will be able to compete on the glass with OU. Obviously Travis Ford wants his team playing at an uptempo pace. I think this could be a huge key to tonight's game. OU is very thin,and rely on their starters for major minutes. I have seen Griffin get easily winded from time to time. If Ok St can control the tempo like I think they can, and play at this high speed, they have the ability to fatigue Blake Griffin. He is a big guy, who plays hard, but it's near impossible to play 37 minutes a game at that size, at this speed, with the fans standing right on top of you. So to go along with their shooting, I think the speed of the game can also be used against Griffin. OU would much rather play a team that wants to grind it out so they can run their offense and feed Griffin the ball in the post. With Ok St pressing they have a chance of getting OU out of sink. Warren is a gunner, who takes some questionable shots. It will be very interesting to see how he composes himself, in a hostile environment, in an up and down type of game. Ok St has only lost once at home this year to Missouri. They expect to win at home, and tonight should be no different.
Oklahoma St 84
Oklahoma 80
I am going to make a play on Oklahoma St probably for 4 units? I could have got +3.5 a little bit ago, but held off and the line dropped to +2.5. I think I may be able to squeeze out another half point at absolute worst so going to hold off before playing, and officially posting it as a play. I will play however, and if I have to play at +2.5 it will be for 3 units. Anyways onto the game.
I think I have a few things working for Ok St here. First this is a rivalry game so without a doubt will be played with a lot of intensity. Stillwater is an extremely tough place to play. Ok St is always very good at home, and would like nothing more than to upset their arch rival. But is this even an upset at home? Not really imo. Fact is statistically Ok St is better in many areas of the game. The Cowboys have a lot of firepower with 5 double figure scorers, where Oklahoma relies on 2 scorers for the majority of their offense. Say 1 of those players (cough Griffin) has an off game, then what? Look at this firepower; James Anderson 18ppg, Obi Muonelo 15.6, Terrel Harris 14.3, Byron Eaton 13.6, Keaton Page 10.2. That is some serious scoring, and that is why Oklahoma St is 2nd in the Big 12 in scoring at 85.4 ppg, and are barely out of 1st place. In fact Ok St is tops on most offensive categories. Along with 2nd in scoring they are 2nd in free throw % , and they lead the Big 12 in 3 point %, and 2nd in the nation with a 41.5% . Their ability to shoot the 3 ball can easily negate Griffin's advantage down low. The 3 can chance the outlook of the game in many ways. Throw in the fact that OU has been struggling to guard the line (last 3 gms Texas AM 43.8%, Nebraska 40.8%, Baylor 35.4%), and the Sooners could be in trouble against their rival. Although OK St will be at a disadvantage down low they still have managed to out rebound 3 of their 4 Big 12 opponents. They have an athletic team, and will be able to compete on the glass with OU. Obviously Travis Ford wants his team playing at an uptempo pace. I think this could be a huge key to tonight's game. OU is very thin,and rely on their starters for major minutes. I have seen Griffin get easily winded from time to time. If Ok St can control the tempo like I think they can, and play at this high speed, they have the ability to fatigue Blake Griffin. He is a big guy, who plays hard, but it's near impossible to play 37 minutes a game at that size, at this speed, with the fans standing right on top of you. So to go along with their shooting, I think the speed of the game can also be used against Griffin. OU would much rather play a team that wants to grind it out so they can run their offense and feed Griffin the ball in the post. With Ok St pressing they have a chance of getting OU out of sink. Warren is a gunner, who takes some questionable shots. It will be very interesting to see how he composes himself, in a hostile environment, in an up and down type of game. Ok St has only lost once at home this year to Missouri. They expect to win at home, and tonight should be no different.
Oklahoma St 84
Oklahoma 80
Notre Dame -2.5
Glad I was able to get this in last night, and only lay the -2.5 ND has been taking a beating as of late for their losing streak, but if you look at who they have played you would realize there is no shame in these losses. There aren't many teams in the country that would have done much better. Losing at Louisville (a game they had won before losing in ot, at Syracuse, and at home against Uconn is nothing to be embarrassed about. Sure their loss at St John's they could have won, but the Johnnies aren't a bad team, and every game on the road is a battle. Fact is they still only have 1 loss at the Joyce Center is 40 something games, and still hold a strong home court advantage. MacLarney missed some shots the other night that he usually knocks down. If he makes those open looks that he usually hits then maybe the outcome is a little different? Regardless Uconn is one of the best teams in the country, and they were right there with them at the end of the game. Marquette on the other hand has many more flaws then the Huskies. Unlike against Uconn I think the Irish has a decided edge in the pain. EVen against Uconn and their monster frontline Gody still managed 24 and 15. I expect an even bigger game against the Golden Eagles, who really don't have anybody to throw at the big man that has any chance of slowing him down. ND should be able to do a much better job of cleaning the glass, and establishing an edge in the paint. Sure Marquette has excellent guards, and wings, but Kmac, and Jackson should do a good job of holding their own. The statistics seems to point towards ND as well. At home the Irish shoot the 3 at a 42.6% clip. and free throws at 77.5%. On the other hand Marquette shoots the 3 at 33.9%, and free throws at 66.4% on the road. That is a pretty big discrepancy and shows that the Irish have a distinct advantage at the Joyce Center. The 42.5% would be good for best 3 point % in the nation. Also in a close game free throws are critcial and shooting 10% higher should be a factor. Marquette easily could have lost at Providence, but their pg got hurt and the Friars shit themselves. They have lost at Tenn earlier in the year, and barely escaped on the road against a down NC ST team. The Irish are a much better team than their record shows. They are well balanced offensively, but just need to pick it up on the other end of the floor a little bit. I think the This is an experienced team who is going to show that their season isn't quite over yet.
ND 82
Marquette 71
Glad I was able to get this in last night, and only lay the -2.5 ND has been taking a beating as of late for their losing streak, but if you look at who they have played you would realize there is no shame in these losses. There aren't many teams in the country that would have done much better. Losing at Louisville (a game they had won before losing in ot, at Syracuse, and at home against Uconn is nothing to be embarrassed about. Sure their loss at St John's they could have won, but the Johnnies aren't a bad team, and every game on the road is a battle. Fact is they still only have 1 loss at the Joyce Center is 40 something games, and still hold a strong home court advantage. MacLarney missed some shots the other night that he usually knocks down. If he makes those open looks that he usually hits then maybe the outcome is a little different? Regardless Uconn is one of the best teams in the country, and they were right there with them at the end of the game. Marquette on the other hand has many more flaws then the Huskies. Unlike against Uconn I think the Irish has a decided edge in the pain. EVen against Uconn and their monster frontline Gody still managed 24 and 15. I expect an even bigger game against the Golden Eagles, who really don't have anybody to throw at the big man that has any chance of slowing him down. ND should be able to do a much better job of cleaning the glass, and establishing an edge in the paint. Sure Marquette has excellent guards, and wings, but Kmac, and Jackson should do a good job of holding their own. The statistics seems to point towards ND as well. At home the Irish shoot the 3 at a 42.6% clip. and free throws at 77.5%. On the other hand Marquette shoots the 3 at 33.9%, and free throws at 66.4% on the road. That is a pretty big discrepancy and shows that the Irish have a distinct advantage at the Joyce Center. The 42.5% would be good for best 3 point % in the nation. Also in a close game free throws are critcial and shooting 10% higher should be a factor. Marquette easily could have lost at Providence, but their pg got hurt and the Friars shit themselves. They have lost at Tenn earlier in the year, and barely escaped on the road against a down NC ST team. The Irish are a much better team than their record shows. They are well balanced offensively, but just need to pick it up on the other end of the floor a little bit. I think the This is an experienced team who is going to show that their season isn't quite over yet.
ND 82
Marquette 71
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