Notre Dame +6.5
Pissed i just had about 20 minutes of typing in and accidently deleted. I had a big play on Lou over the weekend b/c i thought their guards would hold their own while their front court went to work. well their front court controlled the game, but their guard play left a lot to be desired, and almost cost them a game they had wrapped up. Here is the production the cards have got from their guards in the first 2 big east games;
Jerry Smith; 4pt, 3 ast vs sfu, 2,1 vs nova
Edgar Sosa; 7pt, 2 ast vs noa
Preston Knowles; 5pts, 0ast vs sfu, 0, 1 vs nova
Andrew McGee; 3pts, 0 ast vs sfu, 5, 1 vs nova
During the end of the game when it got really type the guards really seized up. Sosa looked like he was shitting himself, and threw one of the worst passes for a turnover i had ever seen. luckily nova doesn't have a big post presence and clark, williams, and samardo went to work. against ND they won't have that same luxury. ND will have just as good of guard play as nova, if not better. the difference will be in the front court. where nova didn't have anybody, the Irish has GODY. The conference and maybe national player of the year candidate is the type of inside presence that can give the cards problems. samardo is a beast, and an excellent player, but he is still young and learning how to play. as competition has picked up he has been more prone to foul trouble. in fact in all but 1 of his last 7 games samuels has picked up at least 4 fouls. he has also fouled out in 2 of those games. his youth was partciulary evident against Partirck patterson, and kentucky where he fouled out in just 13 mins of play, while patterson went off for 22 points and 15 boards. louisville has no choice but to dominate the paint if they want to win. their guard play is just not strong enough to overcome losing the battle in the paint. it will be up to samuels to check harangody, and at this point of his career i just don't think he can get it done. notre dame has been playing good ball as of late winning their last 2 games. they dominated georgetown last monday, and handled seton hall by 9 over the weekend. the irish also shoot the ball just as good as anyone, especially from 3 point range. mclarney shoots 46.7% from 3, jackson 41.7%, and ayers 44.8%. also if it comes down to a free throw shooting contest the irish will make you pay. mcalarney shoots 92%, harangody 80%, and ayers 70%. louisville has also shown they are very beatable at home. they got thumped by louisville earlier in the year, and recently lost to unlv who was playing without their best player wink adams. notre dame's balance should be the difference in this game. louisville just doesn't have the guard play to win against teams that can match them in the front court. i think the irish have a good chance of coming out with a win in this one
