Homedawg's 2008 Playoff Thread

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Dynasty
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Will keep all my playoff information and investment plays in this thread. Plan on making some future bets, along with plays on individual games. For now...


MILWAUKEE TO WIN SERIES (VS PHIL) +150 2.00/3.00
MILWAUKEE TO WIN WORLD SERIES +925 1.00/9.25

We have seen it before a team gets hot and they ride the momentum to the world series. I think the Brewers have a shot to be that team this year. They ended the season winning 6 of 7 and riding a huge wave of momentum into their divisional matchup against the Phillies. I think the pitching matchups fall right into Milwaukee's favor. Game 1 will see Yovani Gallardo recently off the DL vs. Philly's ace Cole Hamels. Game 1 you have to think Philly will have the advantage, but I wouldn't count Gallarado out. He has nasty stuff and is a pitcher who wants to have the ball. He will not be intimidated at all as was seen in his 1st outing since coming off the DL where he gave up 1 run and 3 hits over 70 pitches. For game 1 Gallarado will not be on a pitch count. Game 1 is virtually a must win at home for the Phils because in game 2 they will run up against the red hot .CC Sabathia. People will say how he has had poor post season performance's in the past, but I see him putting those doubters to bed. He is just too locked in right now to falter. Having CC available for games 2 and 5 both AT Philly are huge for the Brew Crew. I don't care where CC is pitching he will be favored, and most likely will not be head to head vs Hamels under any circumstance. Having CC pitching at Philadelphia will give Milw the opportunity to use Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush at home where they pitch must better. Suppan is known as a big game pitcher and proved such in his last outing beating the Cubs. Bush is also much better at home going 6-4 witha 3.60era. Either way you have to think Milw will have a very good chance of winning 1 if not 2 of these, and if they don't get the job done at home you have CC to fall back on in game 5.
Milwaukee is feeling good about themselves right now. My main concern, and it's a big one is their bullpen. However just as the Brewers caught fire so did their pen. Over their past 7 games they have a 1.91 ERA, and a 1.023 WHIP. Coincidence? I think not. The postseason success lies in their bullpen and having arms such as Seth McClung, and Manny Para in the pen the Brewers have more depth. Both have been pitching well lately, even Eric Gagne has picked it up recently. If they can keep this lightning in the bottle and continue to get late inning out this team matches up with anyone. Since Dale Sveum has taken over they have been playing small ball a lot more. They have been utilizing the hit and run, and bunting much more often. Even Ryan Braun was called on to lay one down. For the majority of the season the Brewers relied on the long ball, and we all know home runs come much less often against the increased quality of pitching you will see on a nightly basis. Philadelphia on the other hand it too reliant on the long ball. They hardly ever play small ball which can come back to bite them. Now that Milwaukee is in I can see them riding momentum just as last years Rockie's all the way to the world series where I will more likely than not hedge some back. Lets get there first.
 

Dynasty
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TAMPA TO WIN AL +245 2.00/4.90
TAMPA TO WIN WORLD SERIES +565 1.50/8.97

Who would have thought that this team more than almost any other is the most built for post season success? Well IMO they are. They have extremely good starting pitching with Shields, Kazmir, Garza, and Jackson to go along with a bullpen stock piled with arms. This team has had timely hitting all season and a great leader in Joe Madden. They don't lose at home, which should assure them getting out of the divisional series, and the arms to win on the road when it gets down to crunch time. The Red Sox have too many health issues to be considered a threat. With Beckett, Drew, and Lowell all not at full strength I don't see them getting by the Angels. As for a TB/LAA series I have to give a slight edge to Tampa because of the pitching advantage, although a slight one. This has been some what of a dream season. I am not big on destiny, but if I were to believe in it Tampa would fit into this category.
 

Dynasty
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GM 1 CHICAGO CUBS -157 -157 4.71/3.00

Pretty straight forward here. Dempster has been dominant at Wrigley, and I can't trust Lowe on the road. The Cubs have the bigger bats, and Lou will make sure they get game 1 to set the tone for the series.

GM 1 LAA -115 3.45/3.00

LAA gives the ball to their big game pitcher Big John Lackey. One of my favorite pitchers to back and getting this price at home against a banged up Boston team feels too easy. Drew hasn't looked to good, and either has Lowell. As for Lackey i'm not worried about his last outing where he was beat up pretty good. Even himself said there was a different feel to the game b/c he didn't know how long he was going to pitch. He said he will be ready for this start against Boston who they absolutely dominated in Boston throwing a complete game earlier in the season. Lester has become Boston's stopper, but his road number are no where near as gaudy as what he does in Fenway. Lackey is a big game pitcher. These are the games he shows up big and I expect no different here. They can't afford to lose game 1 with their ace on the mound knowing Josh Beckett will be waiting for them back in Boston.
 

Dynasty
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Summary
milwaukee To Win Divisional Series Vs Phil +150 2.00/3.00
milwaukee To Win World Series +925 1.00/9.25
tampa To Win Al +245 2.00/4.90
tampa To Win World Series +565 1.50/8.97
gm 1 Chicago Cubs -157 4.71/3.00
gm 1 Laa -115 3.45/3.00
 

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g/l Homedawg. staying away from the future bets but I will take a look at the Angels and Cubs in game 1. Saved my bankroll for the playoff run as I started to slide a couple of week ago let's battle through these games and come out w/ some winners.
:toast:
 

do work son
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HD - I respect your opinion and think there's a very good chance Lackey and the Halos take game one, but whats your series outlook?
 

Dynasty
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g/l Homedawg. staying away from the future bets but I will take a look at the Angels and Cubs in game 1. Saved my bankroll for the playoff run as I started to slide a couple of week ago let's battle through these games and come out w/ some winners.
:toast:

ya i have always had trouble the last 2-3 weeks of the season. i didn't know if it was coincidence or if i was just making bad picks. i talked to some long time professional gamblers though and they said you should not bet the last 2 weeks of the season. it's to volatile. said to pick your spots and cash out for the season which I happily did. GL in the playoffs:toast:
 

do work son
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ya i have always had trouble the last 2-3 weeks of the season. i didn't know if it was coincidence or if i was just making bad picks. i talked to some long time professional gamblers though and they said you should not bet the last 2 weeks of the season. it's to volatile. said to pick your spots and cash out for the season which I happily did. GL in the playoffs:toast:

Unlike last year, I avoided the first and last 2 weeks of the season and made out quite well.

I avoided the first two weeks because you really don't know what until a couple of weeks into the season. For instance, it was clear a month into the season that the Tigers weren't going any place this year, yet I probably would have been riding them for the first week had I been making plays.

What'd your pro tell you about this technique?
 

Dynasty
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HD - I respect your opinion and think there's a very good chance Lackey and the Halos take game one, but whats your series outlook?

I think the Angels take this. I didn't want to lay the price, but I feel LAA advances. Boston has to many question marks this year. They are banged up, have serious bullpen deficiencies (other than Papelbon), will sorely miss Manny's post season bat, and do not have home field. Beckett has been a horse in his playoff career, but I have a feeling he is even more banged up than the Sox are leading on. It's bad enough he had his start pushed back to game 3, but even then you have to question how good he will be. Lowell looks like a shell of himself, and Drew just returned. Not sure how much you can expect out of them?
As for LAA they want to get some pay back from Boston after being knocked out of the playoffs by them a few times over the years. This year they will have home field advantage. They also have a decided advantage in the bullpen this year, and have added that big bat (Texieria) that they sorely missed for years. They are set up this year more than any other to make a run at the world series. LAA/TB should be a good series.

GL this postseason
 

Dynasty
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Unlike last year, I avoided the first and last 2 weeks of the season and made out quite well.

I avoided the first two weeks because you really don't know what until a couple of weeks into the season. For instance, it was clear a month into the season that the Tigers weren't going any place this year, yet I probably would have been riding them for the first week had I been making plays.

What'd your pro tell you about this technique?

actually earlier in the season I feel you have the most advantage. if you do your homework and are 1 step ahead before the numbers tighten up you should be able to come out on top during the early season. same can be said for football and basketball. numbers usually don't tighten up until week 3 or 4 in football and about a month or so in for hoops. that's why it's very important and extremely beneficial to do your homework and be prepared for the season. for example I have been putting work in for 3 weeks already for college hoops (which I feel is by far my best sport), and the NBA.
Def should ease back though during the end of the season as most games are meaningless and there are a lot of young players getting some looks.
 

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GM 1 CHICAGO CUBS -157 -157 4.71/3.00

Pretty straight forward here. Dempster has been dominant at Wrigley, and I can't trust Lowe on the road. The Cubs have the bigger bats, and Lou will make sure they get game 1 to set the tone for the series.

GM 1 LAA -115 3.45/3.00

LAA gives the ball to their big game pitcher Big John Lackey. One of my favorite pitchers to back and getting this price at home against a banged up Boston team feels too easy. Drew hasn't looked to good, and either has Lowell. As for Lackey i'm not worried about his last outing where he was beat up pretty good. Even himself said there was a different feel to the game b/c he didn't know how long he was going to pitch. He said he will be ready for this start against Boston who they absolutely dominated in Boston throwing a complete game earlier in the season. Lester has become Boston's stopper, but his road number are no where near as gaudy as what he does in Fenway. Lackey is a big game pitcher. These are the games he shows up big and I expect no different here. They can't afford to lose game 1 with their ace on the mound knowing Josh Beckett will be waiting for them back in Boston.


I'm on board. Love the analysis, Angels will take game 1
 

Dynasty
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Numbers just came out at another one of my books. Can't pass this up...

MILWAUKEE TO WIN WORLD SERIES +1100 .50/5.50
 

Dynasty
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pretty upset i didn't hold off 1 more day. Could have got Milwaukee to win the world series +1600 at Carib!!!
 

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