my records reflect the (-2.5's) up until now.. there are none tonight..
i did play a couple of alt runlines tonight (col/sea)..
i started this with these simple rules:
1. flat bet 100% of the time.
2. play every game on the board.
3. take all dogs, either on runline or moneyline. taking a slightly higher payback in a large number of games, meaning: ill play (-1.5) instead of (-1)..
pretty simple concept, will it work? remains to be seen...
333-408 (+49.26 units), is a very good starting point..
i did play a couple of alt runlines tonight (col/sea)..
i started this with these simple rules:
1. flat bet 100% of the time.
2. play every game on the board.
3. take all dogs, either on runline or moneyline. taking a slightly higher payback in a large number of games, meaning: ill play (-1.5) instead of (-1)..
pretty simple concept, will it work? remains to be seen...
333-408 (+49.26 units), is a very good starting point..
The way this system was presented to me had a flat bet on all games at whatever the first +100 or great price was on the board.
The discrepancies come in those games that perhaps open at -103 and close at +105 or vice versa... getting the line the same approximate time of day each day will also help keep the system mechanical in nature.
I'm curious as to how you determine when you take an alternate line on a home dog, as that seems to buck the trend signficantly and adds a capping dimension to a rather mechanical system.
The discrepancies come in those games that perhaps open at -103 and close at +105 or vice versa... getting the line the same approximate time of day each day will also help keep the system mechanical in nature.
I'm curious as to how you determine when you take an alternate line on a home dog, as that seems to buck the trend signficantly and adds a capping dimension to a rather mechanical system.
But if you truly stick to this system for 162 games a year, you'll turn a profit on it year after year. This is why baseball is the easiest sport to "handicap." Baseball is very mechanical in nature... But since this system was so easily devised, there are eventually going to have to be aspects added into it that are more of a "capping" nature... I, on the other hand, am trying to look for mechanical ways to tweak the system.
The biggest flaw holding this system back on a consistent basis seems to be, surprisingly, not the Yankees, Red Sox, and all of the other very good teams... it's when the mediocre teams throw these "public" pitchers... But that's from a small amount of data that I have... Take guys like... I don't know... Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Mark Prior, Barry Zito, to an extent, Kevin Millwood, and once upon a time Roy Halladay... Those are the guys killing this system, as their prices are incredibly deflated, forcing the mechanical player to play on -2.5 often times when they are facing lousy teams... These are losing propositions worth trying to weed out IMO. Just something I'm trying to work out for next season myself.
The biggest flaw holding this system back on a consistent basis seems to be, surprisingly, not the Yankees, Red Sox, and all of the other very good teams... it's when the mediocre teams throw these "public" pitchers... But that's from a small amount of data that I have... Take guys like... I don't know... Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Mark Prior, Barry Zito, to an extent, Kevin Millwood, and once upon a time Roy Halladay... Those are the guys killing this system, as their prices are incredibly deflated, forcing the mechanical player to play on -2.5 often times when they are facing lousy teams... These are losing propositions worth trying to weed out IMO. Just something I'm trying to work out for next season myself.
hope you have success in tweaking it, but in the tweaking--you may get other things involved..
i agree with you about baseball being a moneymaker and the nhl used to be as well..
im from the old school, still have 2 locals now and 3 once football gets here, i was looking for something to play mechanically on the computer..
been fortunate and able to build my bankroll really well, over the last 3-5 yrs..
i am also currently running some tests and wagering somewhat with series betting, however that involves too much of the martingale effect...
i know your a young guy and pretty good at computers, i am 38 and own my own business,,, develop something mechanically and give me a holler..
i agree with you about baseball being a moneymaker and the nhl used to be as well..
im from the old school, still have 2 locals now and 3 once football gets here, i was looking for something to play mechanically on the computer..
been fortunate and able to build my bankroll really well, over the last 3-5 yrs..
i am also currently running some tests and wagering somewhat with series betting, however that involves too much of the martingale effect...
i know your a young guy and pretty good at computers, i am 38 and own my own business,,, develop something mechanically and give me a holler..
Not that it matters but fter triple checking since the AS break the actual #'s are: 184 games -1 for the 5 inning no play on the 18th.
81 wins 102 losses.
That's IF you bet Col -104 tonight and not the alt rl.
After checking just the past 12 days i see quite a few games like that. Lay -105, -107 or give the 1.5 for the big +$ odds. Your decision matters. Also, i know where 16.65 of those 49.26 units come from. Pinnacle. Pinny is .05 better on every win than a 20 cent book like Oly. Big difference. Maybe i just stumbled onto why this is working for you SSI
You've made the right decisions on whether to lay the 1.5 or 2 or 2.5 and when to bet the -105 or lay the 1.5 alt rl. Perhaps that's the whole key. .
A.Use pinnacle.= profit
B.make the right decision to play -106 or lay 1.5.= profit.
C.Make the right decision to lay -1, or -2.5. = profit.
Anyways keep doing what works for you and GL.
Keep in mind that in order for this to work BOTH of these two things must be true.
#1.blindly betting every home dog on the ML = a profit.
#2.blindly betting every home fav -1.5 = a profit.
I think you said it yourself, it can't be that simple. And what ever happend to the old rule of betting MLB. Don't lay -1.5 on the home team. Maybe that should be, don't lay 1.5 on any home team you THINK will win by 2/+. LOL.
81 wins 102 losses.
That's IF you bet Col -104 tonight and not the alt rl.
After checking just the past 12 days i see quite a few games like that. Lay -105, -107 or give the 1.5 for the big +$ odds. Your decision matters. Also, i know where 16.65 of those 49.26 units come from. Pinnacle. Pinny is .05 better on every win than a 20 cent book like Oly. Big difference. Maybe i just stumbled onto why this is working for you SSI
You've made the right decisions on whether to lay the 1.5 or 2 or 2.5 and when to bet the -105 or lay the 1.5 alt rl. Perhaps that's the whole key. .
A.Use pinnacle.= profit
B.make the right decision to play -106 or lay 1.5.= profit.
C.Make the right decision to lay -1, or -2.5. = profit.
Anyways keep doing what works for you and GL.
Keep in mind that in order for this to work BOTH of these two things must be true.
#1.blindly betting every home dog on the ML = a profit.
#2.blindly betting every home fav -1.5 = a profit.
I think you said it yourself, it can't be that simple. And what ever happend to the old rule of betting MLB. Don't lay -1.5 on the home team. Maybe that should be, don't lay 1.5 on any home team you THINK will win by 2/+. LOL.
for tues night i have: 5-10 (-2.86 units). playing col on alt run line instead of the ML cost us a breakeven night at 6-9....
home teams winning by 1,,, do seem to be killing us.... balt/atl/col/hou all won by only 1 lasy night...
thx for the discussion guys.. i have it now at 338-418 (+46.40 units)... we can keep monitoring or playing it.....
home teams winning by 1,,, do seem to be killing us.... balt/atl/col/hou all won by only 1 lasy night...
thx for the discussion guys.. i have it now at 338-418 (+46.40 units)... we can keep monitoring or playing it.....
