I've got some free time to post on this quiet Saturday morning after finally closing a real estate purchase yesterday and before heading to Wrigley in a few hours. I wanted to get this up now and share some thoughts while I had the time even though the derby isn't until Monday.
I'm sure based off my posting name that some of you have assumed my play will be on a Cub - you are correct. However, as I've stated in my threads involving Cubs games before, when it comes to money I do not let my heart interfere with my head and have identified spots to fade my boys in the past.
The player that I believe presents us with the most value in this contest is boy wonder himself, Kris Bryant.
There are a few reasons I believe we will have the opportunity to buy an inflated price on Kris here:
I think the new format works to our benefit in a couple aspects. First, in contests like these there seems to be a gravitational pull towards all the contestants having somewhat evenly-distributed odds. Especially with these new rules, most people don't know what to expect so you won't see "heavy" favorites.
That being said, I think the new format could work in Kris' favor from a logistics standpoint. He is listed as the #8 seed against Pujols who is labeled as #1. This is only because Pujols has 26 homers thus far in the regular season and Bryant is last of the group with 12. Realistically, everyone starts the night with 0 and these seedings mean absolutely nothing as they do not offer any competitive advantage. We might be granted a few extra cents here as a result of blind public perception thinking a lowest-over-highest-seed upset is less likely. Bryant is a streaky power hitter and hits in bunches so if he gets going it could be an exciting night.
These rounds will be timed, so having to execute swings at a healthy pace should play into Kris' court for several reasons. The first is age as he is only 23 and will be facing the 35 year old Pujols, oldest in the group. Kris has a clear stamina edge here. Additionally, Kris' swing is perhaps the strongest reason I'll be backing him in this derby. He hosts a natural uppercut swing that lofts balls high into the air which should play extremely well at the hitter's park in Cincy. He has the most NATURAL power of anyone not only in this group but in the game today. This is key. He will not need to exert himself as much as the others trying to hit the ball out of the park... he can effortlessly get the ball over the fence and that could be huge down the stretch in the later rounds. One last note, here: the clock will stop during homers so his long hang times won't play as a disadvantage.
Aside from having the physical tools to win, I love where his head is at. He has openly stated his desire to be in the derby and is excited and looking forward to it. He will take this seriously and come prepared. He is one of the smartest young prospects in the game and should be composed on Monday making the risk of him getting over-excited or experiencing a case of the jitters lower than expected.
His father will be pitching to him. He played professional ball himself and has been close to Kris every step of his journey. Kris said he knows exactly how to pitch him and they should have good chemistry out there... this is somewhat of a subtle aspect of the derby but could prove critical.
I could go on, but I think these thoughts are enough for now. We could very well be in a situation where he either loses in the very first round or wins it all given the tough starting matchup but if that scares people off and helps our price, I'll take it. I don't have a price to lock in yet but will post when I do. I might also take a look at matchup prices. I honestly think Bryant wins this thing around 25% of the time long-term which would break even at +300. I expect to see somewhere in the range of +550-600 and will be back when I do.
I'm sure based off my posting name that some of you have assumed my play will be on a Cub - you are correct. However, as I've stated in my threads involving Cubs games before, when it comes to money I do not let my heart interfere with my head and have identified spots to fade my boys in the past.
The player that I believe presents us with the most value in this contest is boy wonder himself, Kris Bryant.
There are a few reasons I believe we will have the opportunity to buy an inflated price on Kris here:
I think the new format works to our benefit in a couple aspects. First, in contests like these there seems to be a gravitational pull towards all the contestants having somewhat evenly-distributed odds. Especially with these new rules, most people don't know what to expect so you won't see "heavy" favorites.
That being said, I think the new format could work in Kris' favor from a logistics standpoint. He is listed as the #8 seed against Pujols who is labeled as #1. This is only because Pujols has 26 homers thus far in the regular season and Bryant is last of the group with 12. Realistically, everyone starts the night with 0 and these seedings mean absolutely nothing as they do not offer any competitive advantage. We might be granted a few extra cents here as a result of blind public perception thinking a lowest-over-highest-seed upset is less likely. Bryant is a streaky power hitter and hits in bunches so if he gets going it could be an exciting night.
These rounds will be timed, so having to execute swings at a healthy pace should play into Kris' court for several reasons. The first is age as he is only 23 and will be facing the 35 year old Pujols, oldest in the group. Kris has a clear stamina edge here. Additionally, Kris' swing is perhaps the strongest reason I'll be backing him in this derby. He hosts a natural uppercut swing that lofts balls high into the air which should play extremely well at the hitter's park in Cincy. He has the most NATURAL power of anyone not only in this group but in the game today. This is key. He will not need to exert himself as much as the others trying to hit the ball out of the park... he can effortlessly get the ball over the fence and that could be huge down the stretch in the later rounds. One last note, here: the clock will stop during homers so his long hang times won't play as a disadvantage.
Aside from having the physical tools to win, I love where his head is at. He has openly stated his desire to be in the derby and is excited and looking forward to it. He will take this seriously and come prepared. He is one of the smartest young prospects in the game and should be composed on Monday making the risk of him getting over-excited or experiencing a case of the jitters lower than expected.
His father will be pitching to him. He played professional ball himself and has been close to Kris every step of his journey. Kris said he knows exactly how to pitch him and they should have good chemistry out there... this is somewhat of a subtle aspect of the derby but could prove critical.
I could go on, but I think these thoughts are enough for now. We could very well be in a situation where he either loses in the very first round or wins it all given the tough starting matchup but if that scares people off and helps our price, I'll take it. I don't have a price to lock in yet but will post when I do. I might also take a look at matchup prices. I honestly think Bryant wins this thing around 25% of the time long-term which would break even at +300. I expect to see somewhere in the range of +550-600 and will be back when I do.
