Home Run Derby betting guide
Rob Nelson
ESPN INSIDER
The 2017 Home Run Derby features Giancarlo Stanton trying to defend his title, a pair of rookies stepping into the spotlight and everything in between.
Let's break down who will win each first-round matchup and take a look at the best overall betting values in picking a winner.
Odds are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
First-round matchups
MatzMatz
Gary Sanchez (+200) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (-240)
Stanton's defense of his title will begin against Sanchez in what appears to be a mismatch. Stanton has hit 94 career home runs at Marlins Park, 54 more than any other player. On the other hand, Sanchez has never played a game there. Thus far this season, Stanton has twice the amount of homers than Sanchez, who missed most of April with a biceps injury. The Marlin outfielder also comes in hot, with five home runs in his final five games before the break, while Sanchez has gone homerless in his past 12 games.
Despite the steep price of -240, it's hard to imagine Stanton not getting through to the next round.
The pick: Stanton (-240)
MatzMatz
Mike Moustakas (+120) vs. Miguel Sano (-140)
The next matchup is a battle of AL Central sluggers in Moustakas and Sano. Only four players have more homers than Moustakas this season, whose 25 are already a career high. He'll enter Monday night on a recent surge, as six of those home runs came in the final 10 games before the break. As for Sano, he certainly enjoys going against Moustakas. Sano's five home runs against the Royals this season are his most against any other team.
In what should be a competitive matchup, the value is on the underdog Moustakas, who has pulled 24 of his 25 home runs in 2017, giving reason that he should be able to avoid the big center field at Marlins Park by attacking right field instead.
The pick: Moustakas (+120)
MatzMatz
Justin Bour (+200) vs. Aaron Judge (-240)
Just like Stanton, Judge enters his matchup in the first round as a -240 favorite. That shouldn't be a surprise, as Judge is coming off a historically great first half of the season. His 30 home runs lead the majors and are already the most by a Yankee rookie in a season. The one disadvantage for Judge might be that only two players have hit more homers at Marlins Park since it opened in 2012 than Justin Bour. Meanwhile, Judge has never played a game at this ballpark.
One key rule that works in Judge's favor: Players will be awarded 30 seconds of bonus time for two 440-foot homers. Judge has five home runs of at least that distance this season, while Bour's longest of the year was 437 feet.
The pick: Judge (-240)
MatzMatz
Charlie Blackmon (+130) vs. Cody Bellinger (-150)
While he hasn't quite been quite as prolific as Judge, Bellinger is having a fantastic rookie year himself. His 25 home runs are tied for fifth in MLB this season, and he didn't make his debut until April 25. However, Bellinger has cooled down recently, with just one homer in his past 13 games. As for Blackmon, he hit four homers in his final 10 games before the break, including a 477-foot bomb on Sunday.
In what feels like a virtual toss-up, it's tough to take a slumping rookie at the price of -150. Look for the 31-year old Blackmon to take advantage of what might be his only shot at the Home Run Derby crown.
The pick: Blackmon (+130)
Overall winner
Odds To Win The 2017 Home Run Derby
So who will be the last one standing Monday night? It's hard to not go chalk and take the defending champion Stanton. After winning in 2016 as a 7-2 favorite, he is the lone participant in 2017 with Home Run Derby experience. There's also a reason Stanton is a bigger favorite this year than last. He is coming off a historic performance in the 2016 Derby when he hit a record 61 homers (19 more than anyone else in history), he has more than twice the amount of long balls than anyone in the history of Marlins Park, and he should be able to earn some 30-second bonuses (he leads MLB with seven 440-foot homers this season).
Look for Stanton -- who hit a record 20 home runs in the final round a year ago -- to outlast the competition in Miami and join Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as the only players to repeat as Home Run Derby champion.
The pick: Stanton (7-4)
Rob Nelson
ESPN INSIDER
The 2017 Home Run Derby features Giancarlo Stanton trying to defend his title, a pair of rookies stepping into the spotlight and everything in between.
Let's break down who will win each first-round matchup and take a look at the best overall betting values in picking a winner.
Odds are courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
First-round matchups
MatzMatz
Gary Sanchez (+200) vs. Giancarlo Stanton (-240)
Stanton's defense of his title will begin against Sanchez in what appears to be a mismatch. Stanton has hit 94 career home runs at Marlins Park, 54 more than any other player. On the other hand, Sanchez has never played a game there. Thus far this season, Stanton has twice the amount of homers than Sanchez, who missed most of April with a biceps injury. The Marlin outfielder also comes in hot, with five home runs in his final five games before the break, while Sanchez has gone homerless in his past 12 games.
Despite the steep price of -240, it's hard to imagine Stanton not getting through to the next round.
The pick: Stanton (-240)
MatzMatz
Mike Moustakas (+120) vs. Miguel Sano (-140)
The next matchup is a battle of AL Central sluggers in Moustakas and Sano. Only four players have more homers than Moustakas this season, whose 25 are already a career high. He'll enter Monday night on a recent surge, as six of those home runs came in the final 10 games before the break. As for Sano, he certainly enjoys going against Moustakas. Sano's five home runs against the Royals this season are his most against any other team.
In what should be a competitive matchup, the value is on the underdog Moustakas, who has pulled 24 of his 25 home runs in 2017, giving reason that he should be able to avoid the big center field at Marlins Park by attacking right field instead.
The pick: Moustakas (+120)
MatzMatz
Justin Bour (+200) vs. Aaron Judge (-240)
Just like Stanton, Judge enters his matchup in the first round as a -240 favorite. That shouldn't be a surprise, as Judge is coming off a historically great first half of the season. His 30 home runs lead the majors and are already the most by a Yankee rookie in a season. The one disadvantage for Judge might be that only two players have hit more homers at Marlins Park since it opened in 2012 than Justin Bour. Meanwhile, Judge has never played a game at this ballpark.
One key rule that works in Judge's favor: Players will be awarded 30 seconds of bonus time for two 440-foot homers. Judge has five home runs of at least that distance this season, while Bour's longest of the year was 437 feet.
The pick: Judge (-240)
MatzMatz
Charlie Blackmon (+130) vs. Cody Bellinger (-150)
While he hasn't quite been quite as prolific as Judge, Bellinger is having a fantastic rookie year himself. His 25 home runs are tied for fifth in MLB this season, and he didn't make his debut until April 25. However, Bellinger has cooled down recently, with just one homer in his past 13 games. As for Blackmon, he hit four homers in his final 10 games before the break, including a 477-foot bomb on Sunday.
In what feels like a virtual toss-up, it's tough to take a slumping rookie at the price of -150. Look for the 31-year old Blackmon to take advantage of what might be his only shot at the Home Run Derby crown.
The pick: Blackmon (+130)
Overall winner
Odds To Win The 2017 Home Run Derby
PLAYER, TEAM 2017 HR ODDS
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins 26 7-4
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees 30 9-5
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers 25 10-1
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals 25 12-1
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins 21 12-1
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies 20 12-1
Justin Bour, Miami Marlins 20 12-1
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees 13 12-1
Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins 26 7-4
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees 30 9-5
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers 25 10-1
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals 25 12-1
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins 21 12-1
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies 20 12-1
Justin Bour, Miami Marlins 20 12-1
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees 13 12-1
So who will be the last one standing Monday night? It's hard to not go chalk and take the defending champion Stanton. After winning in 2016 as a 7-2 favorite, he is the lone participant in 2017 with Home Run Derby experience. There's also a reason Stanton is a bigger favorite this year than last. He is coming off a historic performance in the 2016 Derby when he hit a record 61 homers (19 more than anyone else in history), he has more than twice the amount of long balls than anyone in the history of Marlins Park, and he should be able to earn some 30-second bonuses (he leads MLB with seven 440-foot homers this season).
Look for Stanton -- who hit a record 20 home runs in the final round a year ago -- to outlast the competition in Miami and join Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as the only players to repeat as Home Run Derby champion.
The pick: Stanton (7-4)
