Just curious to see how people evaluate HFA in baseball? Home teams have historically won about 54% of the time, so that equates to about 18 cents. However, how many cents do you add if a very weak road team plays against one of the best home teams (say Minnesota at Tampa)? 40 cents, 50 cents, 70 cents?
Plus a book like WSEX cancels all bets if the listed starting pitchers don't go. This is probably true with most online books. I was in Vegas once and I bet Clemens. I walked away with the betting slip and came back in a minute to tell the bet taker I did not want the game if Clemens didn't start. He granted my request but said they usually won't do that.
It's more than 30 percent Waz.
Good pitching will for the most part shut down good hitting.
But your point about bullpens is valid, look what the Met 'pen did for Santana last season, cost him a 20 win season.
But when 'capping a baseball game, you always start with the starting pitchers first.
Alll sportsbooks now offer the option of "Scheduled Starters" so that if one or both SP does not go, the bet is No Action.
Conversely, you can select "ACTION" in which case if one or both of the SP does not go, the book will adjust the price to reflect the replacement(s) SP and pay or collect accordingly
I happened to see this in my baseball notes lately...FWIW.
Analyzing the home field advantage further, I noticed interesting correlations between a home team's winning percentage and the game number in a series.
Game 1: 54.2%
Game 2: 53.8%
Game 3: 53.5%
Game 4: 50.2%
The home field advantage decreases as the series progresses to the point that by Game 4 of the series, the home field advantage is nullified. Our records indicate that the oddsmakers have not appropriately adjusted for this Game 4 phenomenon and as a result, very successful systems exist for this.
Analyzing the home field advantage further, I noticed interesting correlations between a home team's winning percentage and the game number in a series.
Game 1: 54.2%
Game 2: 53.8%
Game 3: 53.5%
Game 4: 50.2%
The home field advantage decreases as the series progresses to the point that by Game 4 of the series, the home field advantage is nullified. Our records indicate that the oddsmakers have not appropriately adjusted for this Game 4 phenomenon and as a result, very successful systems exist for this.
