Home Dogs Trends

[Slurve~Ball]

Just wanted to post these and revisit them throughout the season. Also comments/feedback welcome. Hoping this trend continues.

2014 Home Dog results:

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 21-7 ATS last year. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: BAL, DET and probably DAL.

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: STL, DET and probably DAL

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET

 

[buddygurt]

Baltimore isn't a home dog

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Just wanted to post these and revisit them throughout the season. Also comments/feedback welcome. Hoping this trend continues.

2014 Home Dog results:

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 21-7 ATS last year. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: BAL, DET and probably DAL.

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: STL, DET and probably DAL

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET

11-0 is a strong trend, but be careful......this is a new year.

The Ravens don't apply to your trend........

Good luck with all your plays Slurve & thanks for sharing.

 

[mudman]

BOL to you.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Baltimore isn't a home dog

whoops. should of had a coffee first. thanks.
scratch BAL

-EDIT-

2014 Home Dog results:

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 21-7 ATS last year. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET and probably DAL

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: STL, DET and probably DAL

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET

 

[Slurve~Ball]

BOL to you.

Cheers thanks. But I'm not blindly following these. Just want to keep track and see if the trend continues this year.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Notes on 2015 Home Dogs after first 2 weeks:

Home dogs 3+ points vs non-divisional visitors so far:
Week 1: 3-3 ATS, 3-3 SU
Week 2: 3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU
Total: 6-3 ATS, 6-3 SU

Only one game week 3: DET

 

[Biz]

Just wanted to post these and revisit them throughout the season. Also comments/feedback welcome. Hoping this trend continues.

2014 Home Dog results:

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 21-7 ATS last year. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: BAL, DET and probably DAL.

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: STL, DET and probably DAL

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET

#1: Last year was the first since 2006 that had a significant edge. Other years slightly over 50% or poor.
#2: Is this a subset of the first trend? Because there were many more situations than just 17 last year.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

#1: Last year was the first since 2006 that had a significant edge. Other years slightly over 50% or poor.
#2: Is this a subset of the first trend? Because there were many more situations than just 17 last year.

#2: Yes. My bad, didnt include "coming off b2b SU wins".
And that cancels STL for the 2nd one. The teams matching these criteria are dwindling. Sorry for any confusion.

-EDIT-


2014 Home Dog results:

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 21-7 ATS last year. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET and probably DAL

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET and probably DAL

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Mods: Any way I can get the thread title changed to read Home Dogs vs b2b SU winners?

 

[RDTrains]

One other question. You have home dogs vs non-divisional visitors and then later you indicate home dogs vs non conference visitors. Which is it?

 

[rolltide]

One other question. You have home dogs vs non-divisional visitors and then later you indicate home dogs vs non conference visitors. Which is it?

he meant non division but that 2014 is the only winning year of that trend since 2007

HD and NDIV and line >= 3 and o:streak > 1 and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
0	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	-	0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)	season = 2015
11	11-0-0 (14.50, 100.0%)	3.9	4-7-0 (0.45, 36.4%)	47.1	8-3-0 (10.64, 72.7%)	season = 2014
14	5-7-2 (-1.71, 41.7%)	5.5	8-6-0 (6.79, 57.1%)	44.9	4-10-0 (-7.21, 28.6%)	season = 2013
17	7-10-0 (-5.35, 41.2%)	4.5	10-6-1 (1.79, 62.5%)	45.6	4-13-0 (-9.82, 23.5%)	season = 2012
21	10-11-0 (-0.38, 47.6%)	5.9	11-10-0 (3.02, 52.4%)	45.6	8-13-0 (-6.29, 38.1%)	season = 2011
14	5-9-0 (-5.39, 35.7%)	4.6	11-3-0 (4.50, 78.6%)	43.9	3-11-0 (-10.00, 21.4%)	season = 2010
18	8-10-0 (-3.06, 44.4%)	7.5	9-9-0 (-1.00, 50.0%)	44.1	5-13-0 (-10.56, 27.8%)	season = 2009
17	7-10-0 (-0.15, 41.2%)	5.7	8-9-0 (0.00, 47.1%)	42.5	5-12-0 (-5.82, 29.4%)	season = 2008

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 21-7 ATS last year. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 4: CHI, TB, SF
2015 Week 3: DET (lost SU+ATS), DAL (lost SU+ATS) 0-2 ATS

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 4: CHI, SF
2015 Week 3: DET (lost SU+ATS), DAL (lost SU+ATS) 0-2 ATS

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 4: CHI
2015 Week 3: DET (lost SU+ATS) 0-1 ATS

--------------------------------------
Notes:
Home dogs 3+ points vs non-divisional visitors so far:
Week 1: 3-3 ATS, 3-3 SU
Week 2: 3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU
Week 3: 0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU
Total: 6-4 ATS, 6-4 SU

On tap for week 4: CHI and SF
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[TomandJerry]

Chicago and San Francisco ??? Kinda like them a little . Good job Slurve.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Chicago and San Francisco ??? Kinda like them a little . Good job Slurve.

Thanks, but it's nothing special right now. And as rolltide pointed out, the 11-0 last year was the first winning year in a while. 1-1 so far this year.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins in 2014 went 21-7 ATS. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET (lost SU+ATS), DAL (lost SU+ATS)
2015 Week 4: CHI (won SU+ATS), TB (lost SU+ATS) , SF (lost SU+ATS)
2015 Week 5: DAL, OAK
Total: 1-4 SU+ATS

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET (lost SU+ATS), DAL (lost SU+ATS)
2015 Week 4: CHI (won SU+ATS), SF (lost SU+ATS)
2015 Week 5: DAL
Total: 1-3 SU+ATS

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET (lost SU+ATS)
2015 Week 4: CHI (won SU+ATS)
2015 Week 5: DAL
Total: 1-1 SU+ATS

--------------------------------------
Notes:
Home dogs 3+ points vs non-divisional visitors so far:
Week 1: 3-3 ATS, 3-3 SU
Week 2: 3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU
Week 3: 0-1 ATS, 0-1 SU
Week 4: 1-1 ATS, 1-1 SU
Total: 7-5 ATS, 7-5 SU

On tap for week 5: DAL
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[Slurve~Ball]

Just playing road favs coming off b2b SU wins is doing well so far. 80% success rate. Small sample size though. This has to regress right?? It can't continue hitting 4 of 5?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

No, o don't think this 80% trend will continue, & its definitely a small sample size.

I hope you're not blindly betting this trend.

I took the Bears last week small with a local because the Raiders should never be a road fav to anyone, plus your trend liked it.

Use this trend as a tool in your arsenal & mix it with other stuff to cap the games.

The Raiders seem like a decent shot of covering, but don't like Dallas much........

Good luck with all your plays Slurve!

 

[Slurve~Ball]

No, o don't think this 80% trend will continue, & its definitely a small sample size.

I hope you're not blindly betting this trend.

I took the Bears last week small with a local because the Raiders should never be a road fav to anyone, plus your trend liked it.

Use this trend as a tool in your arsenal & mix it with other stuff to cap the games.

The Raiders seem like a decent shot of covering, but don't like Dallas much........

Good luck with all your plays Slurve!

Cheers TCG. But no, not blindly playing. Just want to keep track for now. See post #6. Might actually end up fading this later on.
Leaning NE this week. DAL has problems and NE probably not taking their foot off the gas this year. NE can come out mis-firing a bit after a bye, but not this year.
Not even using this trend to sway me.
Good Luck to you too.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Home dogs vs visitors coming off b2b SU wins in 2014 went 21-7 ATS. 15-13 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET (lost ATS+SU), DAL (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 4: CHI (won ATS+SU), TB (lost ATS+SU) , SF (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 5: DAL (lost ATS+SU), OAK (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 6: CLE, BUF, NWO (won ATS+SU)
Total: 2-6 ATS+SU

Home dogs vs non-divisional visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 15-2 ATS. 13-4 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET (lost ATS+SU), DAL (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 4: CHI (won ATS+SU), SF (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 5: DAL (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 6: CLE, BUF
Total: 1-4 ATS+SU

Home dogs getting +3 or more points vs non-conference visitors coming off b2b SU wins went 11-0!!! 9-2 SU.
2015 Week 3: DET (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 4: CHI (won ATS+SU)
2015 Week 5: DAL (lost ATS+SU)
2015 Week 6: xx
Total: 1-2 ATS+SU

--------------------------------------
Notes:
Home dogs 3+ points vs non-divisional visitors so far:
Week 1: 3-3 ATS+SU
Week 2: 3-0 ATS+SU
Week 3: 0-1 ATS+SU
Week 4: 1-1 ATS+SU
Week 5: 0-2 ATS+SU
Total : 7-7 ATS+SU

On tap for week 6: CLE, BUF, PIT, IND
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