Home Dogs Conference Play - Wed

[MagicBus]

<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 11"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CBRYAN%7E1.WHI%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" name="State"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" name="City"></o:smarttagtype><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" name="place"></o:smarttagtype><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <wunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <wontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" LatentStyleCount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id=ieooui></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} span.EmailStyle15 {mso-style-typeersonal; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; color:windowtext; font-weight:normal; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; text-underline:none; text-decoration:none; text-line-through:none;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> Dogs getting 1-5.5 pts. is the stronger play.....still testing the 6+ pts so tread lightly. Tread lightly on all plays as a matter of fact.



Tues. Results

1-5.5 pts ---- 2-0 10-7 YTD

6+ pts -- 1-0 7-7 YTD





Wed Plays:
1-5.5 pts:<o></o>
UNC-W @ William & Mary +4.5 <o></o>
St Bonny @ Fordham +5<o></o>
Northeastern @ Ga St +2.5<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o></o>6+ pts:<o></o>
<st1:state w:st="on">Mich</st1:state> @ <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ind</st1lace></st1:state> +7 <o></o>
G Mas @ townson + 6.5<o></o>
<st1:city w:st="on">Louisville</st1:city> @ <st1lace w:st="on">S Fla</st1lace> +10.5<o></o>
<st1:city w:st="on">Marquette</st1:city> @ <st1lace w:st="on">Rutgers</st1lace> +9.5

GL
<o></o>

 

[MagicBus]

Correction --- W&M @ UNCW +4.5 --- UNCW would be the play, not W&M

 

[Sublime22]

Not a big poster, but this is interesting. Have you looked at in those 10 wins, how many have won the game outright? It could be more profitable playing the ML, even if it cost you a couple of wins. 4 pt dog should get you about +160.

 

[MagicBus]

This was before last night.....

Home Dogs Within 1-5.5:<o></o>
Old Dominion @ Ga St +5 – Win (ML win also)<o></o>
VCU @ Delaware +5 – Win (ML win as well)<o></o>
Msu @ NW +4.5 – Loss – MSU ranked 12th<o></o>
Eky @ <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Tenn St</st1:address></st1:street> +2.5 – Win (ML win as well)<o></o>
CSF @ UC Irvine +2.5 – Win (ML win as well)<o></o>
USC @ <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Ore</st1lace></st1:state> +2.5 – Loss<o></o>
<st1:city w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Santa Clara</st1lace></st1:city> @ Harvard +1 – win (ML win)<o></o>
S Alabama @ <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Fla</st1lace></st1:state> atl +3 – Loss<o></o>
Mid <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Ten ST</st1:address></st1:street> @ <st1lace w:st="on">North Tex</st1lace> +2.5 – Loss<o></o>
Cleve St @ <st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Wright St</st1:address></st1:street> +3.5 – win (ML win as well)<o></o>
<st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Ill St @ Mizzou St</st1:address></st1:street> +1 – Loss<o></o>
ODU @ William & Mary +3.5 -- Loss
<u1></u1><st1:city w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Manhattan</st1lace></st1:city> @ Canisius +1.5 -- Loss (blew a 8 pt lead with 2 min to play)
Wisc GB @ Loyola Chicago +<st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">2.5 - Win
<u1></u1><st1:street u2:st="on"><st1:address u2:st="on">Morehead St</st1:address></st1:street></st1:address></st1:street> @ <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tenn.</st1lace></st1:state> ST +1 - Win (ML win)
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
<!--[endif]--><o></o>
Total YTD – 8-7 with 6 of those wins being ML<o></o>
<o> </o>
<o> </o>
<o></o>6 pts +<o></o> WVU @ Seton Hall +9.5 – Loss (against top 10 team)<o></o>
ND @ <st1:city w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">St Johns</st1lace></st1:city> +8.5 – win (ML win also)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">Western Carolina</st1lace> @ Furman + 6.5 – Loss<o></o>
Sd St @ AF +6.5 – Loss<o></o>
<st1:city w:st="on">Dayton</st1:city> @ <st1:city w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Toledo</st1lace></st1:city> +9 – Loss<o></o>
Syr @ <st1lace w:st="on">S FLa</st1lace> +7 – Win<o></o>
UCLA @ Ore St +15 – Loss<o></o>
<st1:street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Por St</st1:address></st1:street> @ Sac St +14.5 – Win<o></o>
Pitt @ rutgers +14 – Win<o></o>
ND @ Depaul +6.5 – Loss<o></o>
<st1:city w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Butler</st1lace></st1:city> @ Valpo +8.5 - Loss<o></o>
UCLA @ <st1:state w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on"><st1:state u2:st="on"><st1lace u2:st="on">Oregon</st1lace></st1:state></st1lace></st1:state> +10 – winner
<u1></u1>USC @ Ore St +11 – Winner (winner on ML as well)



Last night:
Penn St won on the ML
Bradley won the ML as well

Seton Hall was a 6.5 pt dog and lost in OT, but they didn't fall into the "stronger play" category getting between 1-5.5 pts
<o></o>

 

[MagicBus]

looks as if rather than taking the pts, you could get more value playing the Money lines....:think2:

 

[Sublime22]

Maybe something to look at, I'd guess it's pretty close either way. I don't know the exact percentage but the spread only plays a factor in less than 15% of games (I think). Looks like:

ATS:
10-7: 10-7.7= +2.3

ML;
8-9: 8 @ approx +140???=11.2-9= +2.2

Food for thought, thanks for posting; you may be onto something.

 

[homedawg]

looks as if rather than taking the pts, you could get more value playing the Money lines....:think2:

playing the ML will leave you broke. Take the points and be happy. You have to create some type of filters though. Betting straight home dogs won't work. If you tinker with filters you def will have a good chance at succeeding. I play a lot of home dogs, but pick and chose my spots. Just my .002, but trying adding home dogs that have a + rebounding margin, or at very worse -3 on the glass. Also if fg % def is under 44.5%. Not sure how many teams will fall under those credentials, but I am willing to bet that the ones that do hit at an insane %

against just my .02

 

[MRPOOPS]

any thoughts on RUTGERS plus 8.5 against MARQUETTE?

 

[MagicBus]

playing the ML will leave you broke. Take the points and be happy. You have to create some type of filters though. Betting straight home dogs won't work. If you tinker with filters you def will have a good chance at succeeding. I play a lot of home dogs, but pick and chose my spots. Just my .002, but trying adding home dogs that have a + rebounding margin, or at very worse -3 on the glass. Also if fg % def is under 44.5%. Not sure how many teams will fall under those credentials, but I am willing to bet that the ones that do hit at an insane %

against just my .02

Agreed. Tweak it and I am sure we could be on to something. I will see if I can hit some numbers on these games

any thoughts on RUTGERS plus 8.5 against MARQUETTE?

I like Rutgers anyhow. I wouldn't play it big though. Not that confident with it. There is a reason that home teams are giving up a good amt of pts so they could either get blown out, or show up. Coin toss as you can see with home dogs getting 6+ pts.