Personally I think USF is the sucker bet.... USF has played two decent games after being average all season. They've played five decent teams and gone 1-4 in those games beating a tired and battered temple team that was the first half surprise team of the season. Now temple is beat up and stumbling just tying to limp to the finish line. I personally love that team and how they play too, but their schedule for a non power five was/is grueling..... Long story short, USF caught temple in a bad spot and beat them.... Does that make USF good??? No... They are average to below average... Their other wins are all against .500 or sub .500 teams.... Cincy offense is elite, and while they're defense may not be, Cincy needs these two games for a respectable bowl birth... Lots of very talented seniors on offense.... Go with your gut. Don't ask average or bad teams to cover for you, especially when the spread is less than a TD. I'm on Cincy pretty heavy, first half, and game... Probably second half too