holiday monday in socal

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cabayero was right- took some time away to gear up for monday's great racing. here's an early look at hollywood- will have some stakes plays up tomorrow morning from other tracks. on to the track of the lakes and flowers....

race 1: shi shi doll. two year old maiden fillies go 5fs and of the ones who have run before, pval's horse free rent will be the toughest to beat- as she's almost certain to show more speed with the blinks on. however, i'm going to play shi shi doll from the suddenly hot corrales barn. i would say this one will be a price, but with the trainer's stats, we may be looking at second choice in the opener. no matter, i'm backing her to win anyway.

race 3: freedom's key. i gave this one out last time on may 10th and he ran a credible fourth at 17:1 after jumping the mirror image first time under the wire in his turf route. well, greely does the smart thing and puts the blinks on this guy and he should have absolutely no excuses in his third lifetime start. right proof is going to be a handful to hold off in third start off the bench, but freedom's key is going to be the better price and my gut is he puts it all together at 8/1 or so.

race 4: fly to the lake. i absolutely loved this horse last time and he looked like the winner at the top of the lane and just got plain outridden to the wire. now mike smith is gone and i get pval. that's a major rider upgrade and i'm on him again. the downside is the price- we figure to get 2/1 or so- anything less and this race is a pass.

race 5: hidden path. a corrales double? i'm hoping so. this is a said field and i'm betting on corrales to hustle this son of gold case away from the rail with the addition of blinkers. obviously, mr. frost will be tough (and likely odds on and many people's pick 6 single), but i'm looking for a way to get value in the exotics. at 20/1 or so, i'll put him all my multiple race bets.

race 7: minister's wildcat. call me an idiot, but i'm picking against jeff mullins. king robyn is a very nice sprinter, but this is a full field and i need some value. will i get it in minister's wildcat? not sure, but i'm certain the minister wil turn out to be a superstar when he puts it all together. if i can somehow get 4/1, i'm happy; otherwise, i'll be using excessive pleasure, jimmy o and roll hennessy roll.

race 8: the best race on the card. now this is grizzly group of milers. other than century city and nicobar i would not be surprised if ANY of the other horses won the race. i'll probably back touch of the blue at 10/1 or better, but if he gets bet down, i think i'll have to look at special ring. he's a total freak since he's been gelded and comes back from a 9 month layoff with sizzling works. can he win a grade 1 after such a long layoff? not sure, but he's the real deal and i think i may get a hint of a price on him. longshot players should look closely at war zone, who figures to be right behind redattore in the pace department. there's isn't much speed in here, which gives redattore the advantage, but i don't trust that he'll be at the top of his game after getting sick last month.

race 9: revello. i think this is going to be my pick six single- not b/c he's a standout by any means, but more so by process of elimination. hasty kris doesn't like to win, fonz's doesn't either, red apache is overmatched, pelirrojo just doesn't seem like the same horse since being injured and no socks dock is going the wrong way. that means olympic light is the other one that worries me, but he's coming off yet another layoff so i'll take my chances that he won't be fit enough to win. revello is in form and has a terrific record over the track.

good luck tomorrow- i will have some simulcast plays up later.
 

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adding the following simulcast plays:

Lone Star (assuming the races stay on turf):

race 7, the USA 200k: #5 On the Border. Normally, all asmussen's horses get bet down at lone star, but with all the shippers and all the money unaccustomed to playing at grand prairie. lanerie is one of the best turf riders around, on any circuit, and this one should handle grass just fine thanks. he's a bit cheap, but that just means you're going to get a big price on a sharp horse.

race 10: bien nicole. she may be a notch below these in the talent dept., but she's got a huge heart and loves to win races. the shippers in here are generally a cut below the best (the cream is running in the gamely handicap at hollywood park today-- check out that race, it should be a doozy), so it may be a good time to try to beat the big boys. 'nicole's only poor performance in the last year was nine length loss to horse of the year of azeri and right now, there aren't that many fillies that can get within 10 lengths of azeri.

also- i may play the met mile and try to beat congaree with aldabaran- hoping that najran can keep 'ree more honest up front.
 

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Only had one I liked today War Zone in the 8th
and you did give him a mention. All the others I used you and already down for the entire care.

Thanks for the writeups and picks.
 

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hmn. look like they scratched minister's wildcat. throws my pick 6 for a real loop now.
 
I'm taking a stab with Clever June in the first. I'll hook with Mazel's Shi Shi Doll and Champ's Rocket
 
I'm taking a stab with Clever June in the first. I'll hook with Mazel's Shi Shi Doll and Champ's Rocket
 

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had aldabaran got way bet down, stewards inquiry, hope it holds, had the exacta with congaree and that bum fell out of it, oh well
 

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damn, that was close, had the 3-7 exacta too, should have boxed it
 

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aldabaran was very game and we got generous prices to beat congaree. my horse in this, the 5th at hollywood, does not look very good in the post parade- i'm using him and the favorite (11) in the pick 6.
 

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yeah it died, why did aldabaran pay better on the show than the place, never seen that before??
 

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matt, the show payoff was skewed because most of the money in the show pool was bet on congaree. when that horse ran out of the money, it otherwise inflated the payouts on the other horses (i.e., all the congaree show money was distributed to the three horses that hit the board).

i might bite with tates creek if she stays up there at 5/1. otherwise, pass until the shoemaker.
 

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well, 7/2 was pretty fair for tates creek- she ran like a monster. this next race is a mess- but i think #5 jimmy o has a puncher's chance to hit the board here- he probably won't win but i think he's going to put in an honest run at a big price.
 

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what do you think about the next one? you still like touch of the blue? any exactas? nice call on tates creek and jimmy o
 

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HEY MAZEL- 10.20 TO SHOW FOR JIMMY O. COOL. THANKS FOR THE LONGSHOT. WISH I HAD THAT 30K SUPERDUPERFECTA!
 

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