Due to confusion created by other "systems" being posted and debated on my previous thread, I have created this new one with my Reverse Line Movement Sytem/Plays as well as my "% Plays"...Here's the criteria...
For a Reverse Line Movement Play we need the following
1. 70% or more on 1 side
2. Line moves a full point in the opposite direction in the ALL 3 books I have posted
3. No IVY LEAGUE PLAYS
4. No TOTAL PLAYS...SPREAD ONLY
5. Any game with a top "Well Known" (use your own judgment) top 25 team playing in it, with more than 85% on that team, take the opposite...no matter what the movement...if I have to explain to you what a "Well Known" team is, then you should put your money in a CD at a bank and not with a book...
6. Any game that has over 90% on 1 side, take the other, no matter what
7. Bet the same amount on every play
*Let me preface the following with the fact that I am aware halftime bets are typically bad ideas, and that the books love halftime bettors.
8. Halftime Wagers - If a game is a play meeting the aforementioned criteria, and at half they are getting blown out, take them at half...Vegas is usually spot on with their picks, but due to unforeseen "roadblocks" (example - team shooting terribly, other team ridiculously hot, early foul trouble, etc.) sometimes at half, they look terrible...the chances of the luck continuing for another half are highly unlikely...I would not wager the same amount as your original bet (I usually go with about half), it is a great way to hedge a loss
Note - Below I have rated the conference plays based off of my success rate over the years and the number of plays usually seen
Tier 1
- Atlantic 10
- Big East
- Big 10
Tier 2
- ACC
- Missouri Valley
- Horizon
- Conference USA
Tier 3
- Pac 10
- SEC
- Mountain West
- Others
I have noticed that success during the week is much more probable than on the weekends...due to the massive slates seen on Saturdays, I think they focus on a few games rather than every game...
Some days I will be able to have time for write-ups and be able to post the %'s/answer question, and some days I won't...I will try and have a daily thread when I have time, if I can't I will post my plays in the previous day's thread...work is keeping me busy so it is hard, but I welcome you to follow along if you would like...if not, we'll see ya...G/L
For a Reverse Line Movement Play we need the following
1. 70% or more on 1 side
2. Line moves a full point in the opposite direction in the ALL 3 books I have posted
3. No IVY LEAGUE PLAYS
4. No TOTAL PLAYS...SPREAD ONLY
5. Any game with a top "Well Known" (use your own judgment) top 25 team playing in it, with more than 85% on that team, take the opposite...no matter what the movement...if I have to explain to you what a "Well Known" team is, then you should put your money in a CD at a bank and not with a book...
6. Any game that has over 90% on 1 side, take the other, no matter what
7. Bet the same amount on every play
*Let me preface the following with the fact that I am aware halftime bets are typically bad ideas, and that the books love halftime bettors.
8. Halftime Wagers - If a game is a play meeting the aforementioned criteria, and at half they are getting blown out, take them at half...Vegas is usually spot on with their picks, but due to unforeseen "roadblocks" (example - team shooting terribly, other team ridiculously hot, early foul trouble, etc.) sometimes at half, they look terrible...the chances of the luck continuing for another half are highly unlikely...I would not wager the same amount as your original bet (I usually go with about half), it is a great way to hedge a loss
Note - Below I have rated the conference plays based off of my success rate over the years and the number of plays usually seen
Tier 1
- Atlantic 10
- Big East
- Big 10
Tier 2
- ACC
- Missouri Valley
- Horizon
- Conference USA
Tier 3
- Pac 10
- SEC
- Mountain West
- Others
I have noticed that success during the week is much more probable than on the weekends...due to the massive slates seen on Saturdays, I think they focus on a few games rather than every game...
Some days I will be able to have time for write-ups and be able to post the %'s/answer question, and some days I won't...I will try and have a daily thread when I have time, if I can't I will post my plays in the previous day's thread...work is keeping me busy so it is hard, but I welcome you to follow along if you would like...if not, we'll see ya...G/L
