HNIC
Date---------record------units
10/11 -------- 2-0 ------ +2.68
10/18---------2-2------- -0.20
10/25----------1-2------ -1.10
YTD----------5-4------- +1.38
Sorry for such a long write up but lots to argue on this game.Will be back later with more...and hopefully far more abridged analysis.
Nashville -.5 (in regulation) -110
When you think of home ice advantage teams like Calgary, Minnesota, or Montreal comes to mind. However one of the most consistent winning squads playing at home since the lockout is the Nashville Predators.
Preds at home
Year------------W--L-OTL
2005-06--------32-8-1
2006-07--------28-8-5
2007-08--------23-14-4
2008-09---------4-1-0
TOTAL--------87-31-10
Furthermore their record in regulation for these four years:
Year--------W-L
2005-06----27-7
2006-07----24-3
2007-08----18-14
2008-09----4-1
TOTAL----73-25
During this period Nashville had 24 games that went to OT. If you include them the Preds record laying the half goal in regulation comes to 73-49. What’s positive expected value? Anytime you can find a 67% long term angle and need to lay only -110.
But going beyond the historical numbers I offer these current factors.
What was the strength of the Florida Panther coming into this season has become their weakness. The Panthers defense has taken a major blow to their top blue liners. Cory Murphy has a injured shoulder. Bryan Allen knee surgery. Bryan McCabe injured back. So desperate this team is they signed 35 year old Jassen Cullimore who has been keeping in shape by skating with his 4 year old daughter in Ontario. He skated in his first team practice since training camp yesterday.
When coach Pete DeBoar was asked about Cullimore’s status for today he said, “we have no choice,… Cully is playing whether he's ready or not.”
In the last four games Florida’s PK unit has allowed 6 goals in 23 chances.
Florida has opted to give backup Craig Anderson the start in net and not have Tomas Vokoun face his old teammates.
While the Panthers’ pre-season expectations on a solid defense has taken a hit through injuries, their lack of offense was to be expected. Florida owns one player that has scored more than 3 goals on this season and when your team points/goal leader is Cory Stillman you know you have some offensive issues. Not surprisingly the Panthers have scored 2 goals or less in 5 of their last 7 games.
Meanwhile Nashville’s offense is on a roll scoring 3 or more goals in their last 9 games and look to set a franchise record tonight with ten. 5 of their players are near or above point a game contributors. They have a balanced attack coming from three lines and offensive threats from the blue line in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. The Preds have always scored but are doing it in a different way this year.
Goaltender Dan Ellis said the offensive output has more to do with a change in philosophy than a change in personnel. Players are getting pucks to the net instead of faking the shot and holding the puck. That is opening up the chance for rebounds. With more traffic around the net, pucks are getting whacked home.
"We have almost simplified it where before it was a little prettier, now it's a little uglier but it's going in," Ellis said. "
Keeping the puck out of their own net has been the problem for Nashville. Ellis has struggled but did show glimpses of promise in his last start. Washington outshot Nashville 19-4 in the first period but Ellis kept them in the game although they would end up losing in a shootout. After having a game off with a tweek in his back look for Nashville’s number one back in net. I wouldn’t expect him to be tested by the anemic Florida offense.
Date---------record------units
10/11 -------- 2-0 ------ +2.68
10/18---------2-2------- -0.20
10/25----------1-2------ -1.10
YTD----------5-4------- +1.38
Sorry for such a long write up but lots to argue on this game.Will be back later with more...and hopefully far more abridged analysis.
Nashville -.5 (in regulation) -110
When you think of home ice advantage teams like Calgary, Minnesota, or Montreal comes to mind. However one of the most consistent winning squads playing at home since the lockout is the Nashville Predators.
Preds at home
Year------------W--L-OTL
2005-06--------32-8-1
2006-07--------28-8-5
2007-08--------23-14-4
2008-09---------4-1-0
TOTAL--------87-31-10
Furthermore their record in regulation for these four years:
Year--------W-L
2005-06----27-7
2006-07----24-3
2007-08----18-14
2008-09----4-1
TOTAL----73-25
During this period Nashville had 24 games that went to OT. If you include them the Preds record laying the half goal in regulation comes to 73-49. What’s positive expected value? Anytime you can find a 67% long term angle and need to lay only -110.
But going beyond the historical numbers I offer these current factors.
What was the strength of the Florida Panther coming into this season has become their weakness. The Panthers defense has taken a major blow to their top blue liners. Cory Murphy has a injured shoulder. Bryan Allen knee surgery. Bryan McCabe injured back. So desperate this team is they signed 35 year old Jassen Cullimore who has been keeping in shape by skating with his 4 year old daughter in Ontario. He skated in his first team practice since training camp yesterday.
When coach Pete DeBoar was asked about Cullimore’s status for today he said, “we have no choice,… Cully is playing whether he's ready or not.”
In the last four games Florida’s PK unit has allowed 6 goals in 23 chances.
Florida has opted to give backup Craig Anderson the start in net and not have Tomas Vokoun face his old teammates.
While the Panthers’ pre-season expectations on a solid defense has taken a hit through injuries, their lack of offense was to be expected. Florida owns one player that has scored more than 3 goals on this season and when your team points/goal leader is Cory Stillman you know you have some offensive issues. Not surprisingly the Panthers have scored 2 goals or less in 5 of their last 7 games.
Meanwhile Nashville’s offense is on a roll scoring 3 or more goals in their last 9 games and look to set a franchise record tonight with ten. 5 of their players are near or above point a game contributors. They have a balanced attack coming from three lines and offensive threats from the blue line in Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. The Preds have always scored but are doing it in a different way this year.
Goaltender Dan Ellis said the offensive output has more to do with a change in philosophy than a change in personnel. Players are getting pucks to the net instead of faking the shot and holding the puck. That is opening up the chance for rebounds. With more traffic around the net, pucks are getting whacked home.
"We have almost simplified it where before it was a little prettier, now it's a little uglier but it's going in," Ellis said. "
Keeping the puck out of their own net has been the problem for Nashville. Ellis has struggled but did show glimpses of promise in his last start. Washington outshot Nashville 19-4 in the first period but Ellis kept them in the game although they would end up losing in a shootout. After having a game off with a tweek in his back look for Nashville’s number one back in net. I wouldn’t expect him to be tested by the anemic Florida offense.
