I have a system I am using to cap hockey which produces a fair amount of ML dogs. My YTD record is 7-4-5 (31% ties!). Three or four of those ties were money line dogs. Does anyone have an opinion as to which is more profitable in the long run - taking the ML or taking the .5 goal? With the garage league defensive NHL style, ties are becoming more frequent so if anyone has any stats/opinions on this I would appreciate it.
for me - it depends.
i am more likely to just M/L a dog - and not take any pucks.
for faves - anything -125 or less - i will lay the M/L and forget the puck. if the fave is -130 or more - i am more likely to lay 1/2 a puck. for the record - i NEVER lay 1/2 a puck and anything over -125.
i am more likely to just M/L a dog - and not take any pucks.
for faves - anything -125 or less - i will lay the M/L and forget the puck. if the fave is -130 or more - i am more likely to lay 1/2 a puck. for the record - i NEVER lay 1/2 a puck and anything over -125.
Seems like three weeks ago there was an article about this exact subject (value of .5 goal) on the home page of the Rx. You could search back and see. It basically boils down to return amount vs. chance of occuring. There are charts available (like a ml chart in football).. If you don't have any luck, I could dig something up (maybe....)
This really is a simple question. At lines close to pkem "buy" the 1/2 goal if you pay less than 40 cents. Example: pkem -120 vs. -1/2 +123. Here the -1/2 is the stronger play since it would be roughtly equivalent to pm em -117 using the 40 cent adjustment.
Go over to pinnaclesports.com. Tonight they are dealing:
Bruins -1/2 -110, Bruins pkem -148
Islanders -1/2 +115, Isl pkem -125.
See the 38 and 40 cent difference? So if the best rogue lines you could get were Bruins -1/2 EV or Bruins pkem -136, you would play them -136 since it only "costs" you 36 cents to "buy" the 1/2 goal vs. the best puckline.
Now, you need to be careful if the line is not close to pkem. In general the 1/2 point "buy" is worth progressively more than 40 cents as you move away from pkem type lines.
Disregard all the posters that say "split it 50/50, look at spcific games, etc". I can assure you these are all the wrong answers.
Get used to going over to Pinnacle.com and they typically deal their MLs consistent with their puck lines, so their split lines will easily educate a hockey bettor exactly how much the 1/2 goal is worth on specific spreads away from pkem. Like a Baseball R/L you do need to be careful with how and low total games.
Go over to pinnaclesports.com. Tonight they are dealing:
Bruins -1/2 -110, Bruins pkem -148
Islanders -1/2 +115, Isl pkem -125.
See the 38 and 40 cent difference? So if the best rogue lines you could get were Bruins -1/2 EV or Bruins pkem -136, you would play them -136 since it only "costs" you 36 cents to "buy" the 1/2 goal vs. the best puckline.
Now, you need to be careful if the line is not close to pkem. In general the 1/2 point "buy" is worth progressively more than 40 cents as you move away from pkem type lines.
Disregard all the posters that say "split it 50/50, look at spcific games, etc". I can assure you these are all the wrong answers.
Get used to going over to Pinnacle.com and they typically deal their MLs consistent with their puck lines, so their split lines will easily educate a hockey bettor exactly how much the 1/2 goal is worth on specific spreads away from pkem. Like a Baseball R/L you do need to be careful with how and low total games.
