History for finals

[Lippman]

[FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Game 1[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
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What does history say about the 1st game of the finals series. I will just be using Finals round stats for this series and skipping all rounds. [/FONT][FONT=&quot]
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[FONT=&quot]It says the home team dominates (Pens). Hitting at a whopping 71.1%. So even at the inflated price of -150 for the Pens is in scope. So history tells us that the Pens are a great pick straight up and on the line. But as you know I would never suggest you to take a -150 fave.

If you like the Pens play them on the -1 line at +117[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]But personally I will be hoping for a Banana SPLIT for the games in Pitt.

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[Lippman]

Game 2

History said the Pens had a great shot to win the first game and lay that juice which was spot on. !! So what does history tell us about home teams that win that so important first game.

From just a finals perspective it tells us that the home team (Pens) have a 68.5% chance to win game 2, which is way more then enough to cover the -126 ML they are setting at now.

You Shark lovers can get them at +190 on the series price now, so if you still think they can pull it off this is the time to pull the trigger. But a huge note to you, in the finals when the home team wins game 1, they win the series at a 85.2% clip !! (Considering 2-2-1-1-1 series format. )

So history tells us to take the Pens and lay that low ML.

GL

 

[Lippman]

History nails it once again.

 

[Lippman]

Game 3

So what does history tell us about game 3 when the home team (Pens) won the first two games at home ? Surely the Sharks have a great shot at winning game 3 ? Right ??

You would be correct, but not by much. In the Finals this situation doesn't happen very often at all. In fact there is only a sample of 36 games to go by. That sample tells us that 55.6% of the time the home team wins in this situation. Now I said in the finals I would just concentrate on just finals numbers, but for reference for all rounds the home team wins at a 48.3% win rate.

Right now the Sharks are -145 which is way too much to lay.

History is telling us to take the Sharks going by finals numbers, but not to lay the -145. Play the -1 line to make them a dog payback.

But personally, I say play under 5. The Sharks are going to clog the middle and trap like a mother to contain the Pens.

 

[Lippman]

History for game 3 was correct once again. But the Pens really should of won that game. The 2nd and 3rd goal that the Sharks scored was all on Murray.

 

[Biz]

So you think a puck going off a SJ Shark into his own net is deserved?

 

[Lippman]

So you think a puck going off a SJ Shark into his own net is deserved?

I think Murray letting a puck go through him (2nd goal) and being on his knees and allowing the short side goal (3rd goal) is completely on Murray. It cost the Pens that game.

 

[Lippman]

Game 4

What does history tell us about game 4 when the road team is up 2-1. Does the home team tie things up and go back on the road ?

Again we have a small sample size for this game and we have conflicting numbers for finals and all rounds. For the finals small sample size of 33 games the road team hits at a 54.5% rate. But if you go by all rounds you go down to 48%. I tend to go with the all rounds data where are are sampling from 273 games.

The Sharks are around a -130 fave in which you need to hit at 56.2% to break even, so no numbers here tell you to take the Sharks according to the ML. But history does tell us that the Sharks should win this game.

But once again I like the under.....under 5 that is. Not fond of laying -156 juice on the under 5.5.
History tells us Sharks will win and with just laying -130 it's not a horrible wager. Even though in the long run you should about break even. But we are not wagering the long run tonight. So there.

GL

 

[Lippman]

History got game 4 wrong, but hey everyone was on under 5 with me.....right....? LOL

 

[Lippman]

Game 5

History for game 5

Well the Pens can close things out and win the Cup at home. Something that just doesn't usually happen in Pittsburgh. So how well does the home team do when they are up 3-1 and playing at home ? You would think pretty well.......right ?
Well you would be for sure, it's just how much juice do you want to lay. In this situation the home team wins 64.2% of the time combining all and final games. But the Pens line has jumped from -140 to around -165

. So at laying that massive amount you would have to hit at at 62.2% to break even. But even with the juiced line you have a slight advantage.
Play the -1 line, ditch the juice and get the Pens at around +108

Oh and BTW, tonight is the night to play over.

 

[Lippman]

Nailed the over, bombed the side.

 

[Riv34]

where's today's history lesson for game 6!?

 

[Lippman]

Forgot to post, here it is.

In this situation the road team (Pens) have won at a 58.3% for the finals and 51.6% overall, so where they are a short fave it would more than payoff going by just finals numbers. But there is only a 24 game sample to go from. Don't forget I am going by a 2-2-1-1-1 format for these calculations. The overall game sample is for 213 games so probably a better stat to hang your hat on.