historic investing charts

[Willie99]

lots of people mocking the stock and real estate markets recently, as if we haven't had down cycles in the past.

I'll let history speak for itself.

start off with two charts for the DJIA over the last 100+ years

 

[Willie99]

real estate anyone

 

[Willie99]

and gold

 

[Willie99]

As for me, I ventured into the real world mid 1980's, a few years after college.

In that time frame, my residence has appreciated 300% and the DJIA has increased over 1,000%.

You can't spin that.

I'm from the school of long term growth and prosperity, and I'm not concerned about economic downturns or market fluctuations. History teaches us time and time and time again that shit happens, and then the trend of growth resumes.

 

[tiznow]

might want to toss in a chart of purchasing power of the dollar while your at it

the dow gains don't seem all that huge when you take that into consideration

anyway u right shit goes in cycles and that time frame one shows you well my feelings for the long term

in 2000 we hit a secular bear market which lasts like and average of 15 years or so

we'll probably bounce around sideways till 2015 or somewhere around there....and maybe later based on that chart since the past ones at least 17 years

anyway hard to say if history means all that much too.....as we fiscally going somewhere we've never gone before so will just have to see how this all plays out over the next several years....

 

[LineTamer+]

4 famous words...

"this time, it's different"

Said each and every time this happens.

 

[D2bets]

But if you look at the top in 1929, it looks like it took until around 1956 to reach the 1929 highs. That's 27 years. The top this time was actually in 2007. Is it going to take to 2029 to get back to that level? That's a long fucking time.

 

[tiznow]

2000 was the top when u factor inflation that was a farse cyclical bull inside a secular bear because we had as gas prices food prices utility bills health care rent and home prices alot higher at the 2nd peak than it was in 2000

 

[Willie99]

and in 2000, I believe the P/E ratios were totally out of whack, with companies selling at 50 to 1 or dotcoms surging on speculation and no profits.

the dotcom market was a fraud

 

[tiznow]

2007 a bigger fraud in my mind in that it was built on a mountain of leverage and unsustainable debt

Valuations may have been crazy but our financial system wasn't threatened at that time

Also it probably won't take 27 years for the markets to return to the hoghs because they been more aggresive deflation fighting but regardless of where the numbers go American standard of living is likely peaked out for a long time

Zimbabwes stock market is a beast in terms of zimbabwe dollars but the people live like shit and the currency is worthless

 

[Brooklynbomber]

Good Lord - perma bull Willie getting brave again - might be time to sell

real estate anyone

 

[tiznow]

Yeah was a bit perplexed why willie posted a chart showing the biggest housing bubble in history by far

So we halfway down eh sounds about right we cleared through the subprime resets next up in 2010 and 11 are alt-a and option arms

Plus when over shoot the upside that much u tend to shoot below median historical values to the downside

 

[Willie99]

again? as if I ever wavered

I've been making the same argument consistently my entire adult life, through good times and bad, and it has served me well.

When everything everywhere is getting pounded in every way possible, I'm the one sitting here saying "this too will pass".

 

[Brooklynbomber]

Another interesting Chart

Ya think that long term DOW chart has anything to do with this ?

 

[Willie99]

"this time, it's different"

but this time really is different, just wait and see.

and if not this time, then next time will be fursur

 

[Willie99]

gee, with all those problems some think we have, and have had for some time now, the standard of living in this country must really suck, eh?

LOL

it's different, really

 

[tiznow]

My uncle that's worked in printing industry his whole life hitting the ue line a many other Americans after today on top of having to worry about getting his pension pay that may not be there down the road

But y it's all good as long as willie is doing okay

 

[Brooklynbomber]

Not a personal knock against you Willie, but your whole Baby Boomer generation seems to be under some sort of a strange spell

All the while America is being looted of tens of trillions of dollars by offshore bankers.

 

[Willie99]

tizdoom, we have down cycles and we're in one right now

but there is a whole culture of people out there that predict the next great depression during every down cycle

I'm sorry, history tells me I can't take that too serious



Of course, I have concerns. We cannot allow our debt to triple in the next decade like Obama is trying to do, something is going to give there on the political front. Just as you correctly point out Bush made Obama possible, Obama will bring back fiscal conservatism when his far left extremism is rejected. The debt can grow as the economy grows, but it cannot explode.

I'm also concerned about the social security and medicare debt. These two programs will have to have major overhauls, but that too will happen out of necessity.

So I don't think everything is rosey, it's never been perfect and it will never be perfect. But when this bust ends, there will be another boom and after that, another bust. God willing, I'll be around to say "this too will pass".