There are some holes in his methodologies, but again he isn't even a statistician by trade and he got in on the ground floor of using analytics to predict politics. Doesn't mean he is the best at it but he blows away most of the partisan analysis out there and that is why he has risen up the ranks in a relatively short period of time. The internal models and data that some of the candidates have might even be better than his, atleast they should be given the incentive they have. I know the Koch brothers have an in-house firm that has a lot of info, sure Hilary's camp does as well.
There is a reason 5dimes takes a $100 max on politics 13 months before election now instead of 2k and it isn't because the smartest people are getting dumber at gambling.
Yeah, why don't you list all his failed predictions? There have a few, but very few, and certainly not in general elections. I only disagreed with him on Forida in the electoral vote, hence his very accurate and my dead on predictions. Your "flawed model" statement was a hilarious blend of stupidity and irrelevance, I don't give a flying fuck if Dem turnout exceeds GOP turnout because all Dem voters were promised a blow job, take that woudda, coudda, shoudda bullshit and stuff it.
Then you show that you're a liar or a moron-your pick-he will never predict a Republican victory-EVER?
2010 U.S. elections[edit]
Main article: FiveThirtyEight § 2010 U.S. mid-term elections
Shortly after FiveThirtyEight relocated to The New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and state Governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling. Silver eventually published detailed forecasts and analyses of the results for all three sets of elections. He correctly predicted the winner in 34 of the 37 contested Senate races. His 2010 congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in 2008, but were still within the reported confidence interval. Silver predicted a Republican pickup of 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36.[SUP][73]
In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, he correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[SUP][11][/SUP] That same year, Silver's predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states; he predicted Republican victory in North Dakota and Montana, where Democrats won.
So, you were saying, Genius? And, btw, who is YOUR polling guru, Gallup or Rasmussen, who've made fools of themselves in recent years.
ointer:azzkick(&^Slapping-silly90))^^
So, nothing to say after I refuted every "point" that you made(Silver is very accurate, your "flawed model" excuse is lame and pathetic, and Silver predicts what his research tells him will happen, NOT what you think he wants to happen. Funny how you're always flapping your gums but you don't have shit to say not, Whack Job...
Been there, done that...
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=993631&highlight=Nate+Silver
"His 'proprietary' models favor Dems. He had one good year in a Democrat cycle. Big deal. Next time the GOP wins he'll fall on his ass, like always."
Just another Nostradamus who believes he can predict future events.
It doesn't get any more moronic than that.
Yes he is. Another RINO who will do nothing but rubberstamp destructive Democrat programs and refuse to stand up for anything = surefire electoral loser.
McCain: Vote for me - Obama is a good man.
Romney: I will keep Obamacare. I mean, am I not the guy who invented it???
face)(*^%
I am so happy Donald Trump is draining the GOPe as they desperately try and defeat him.
Yeah, when you said Scott Walker would be recalled, you nailed that one.
When you said I was T-hawk & snoop, you were dead on accurate.
When you said the Tea Party was "finished" you couldn't have been more correct.
You are a dumb little boy with these idiotic phrased programmed into your phone.
Press #2 for "you're scared to post picks"
Press #5 for "I'm always right"
And on it goes...
"plus $12K!"
Pretty funny.
(Republicans) Do you think Barack Obama
was born in the United States?
29%
Yes
..................................................................
44%
No
...................................................................
26%
Not sure
..........................................................
(Republicans) Do you think Ted Cruz was born
in the United States?
40%
Yes
..................................................................
22%
No
...................................................................
39%
(Republicans) Do you think Barack Obama
was born in the United States?
29%
Yes
..................................................................
44%
No
...................................................................
26%
Not sure
..........................................................
(Republicans) Do you think Ted Cruz was born
in the United States?
40%
Yes
..................................................................
22%
No
...................................................................
39%
His models don't favor Dems but since he said they would win a few times he has become overrated. That isn't really his fault, it just speaks to how bad the political analysis is in terms of handicapping elections before he came along.
His sports betting models are entirely useless. This is because sports betting is already an efficient market with far smarter participants in it.
If memory serves me correctly, Silver uses internal Democrat polling data not available to the public. He says he's not a Democrat pollster but for all intents and purposes this exactly what he is.
The next time a Republican wins the White House you can bet Silver will get it horribly wrong.
Brazil over Germany!
That's almost as funny as when poker fraud vtard predicted Peyton Manning and the Broncos would trash the Seahawks in the Super Bowl! Final score: 43-8 Seahawks - the largest point differential in Super Bowl history!
If memory serves me correctly, Silver uses internal Democrat polling data not available to the public. He says he's not a Democrat pollster but for all intents and purposes this exactly what he is.
The next time a Republican wins the White House, you can bet Silver will get it horribly wrong.
Brazil over Germany!
That's almost as bad as when poker fraud vtard predicted Peyton Manning and the Broncos would trash the Seahawks in the Super Bowl! Final score: 43-8 Seahawks!
You have to go back years to find a losing month for me. Lmao.
"Fred Dalton Thompson will be the next president" Sheriff Joe
sdst +9 over duke.....20 point loss
mich st-4.5 over virg.... 14 point loss
If memory serves me correctly, Silver uses internal Democrat polling data not available to the public. He says he's not a Democrat pollster but for all intents and purposes this exactly what he is.
The next time a Republican wins the White House you can bet Silver will get it horribly wrong.
Brazil over Germany!
That's almost as funny as when poker fraud vtard predicted Peyton Manning and the Broncos would trash the Seahawks in the Super Bowl! Final score: 43-8 Seahawks - the largest point differential in Super Bowl history!
Even if some of the data you have is flawed, if you can model it correctly you're still going to do better than most of the pundits out there. Like I said, most of his success comes from the fact the field he is successful in was basically 99% morons until he came along.
As far as his sports predictions, he has no value at that. There are people who do that far better than him, it isn't the low hanging fruit that politics was pre-2012. Even someone like John Hollinger, who models basketball, has no chance to beat the market. That doesn't mean none of the info he is publishing has value. You could still take tons of pertinent info from it even if on it's own it isn't good enough to sustain market-beating results.
Silver could get it right, he could get it wrong, he doesn't have any bias that you speak of though. I know this is tough for some on this board to grasp, but most people would rather have a level of wealth and fame rather than give biased predictions about the political party they support. His entire career was built on political analysis, obviously he is going to try to keep that going because having people fawn over you as if you are some type of genius is pretty damn cool. If he thought a Republican was 60%+ to win then why wouldn't he make that known? He gets it right and his followers just doubled.
Like I said, if I had to guess I'd say the candidates/parties have better polling data than the stuff he is privy to. Atleast the smart ones with a lot of resources that are spending hundreds of millions to win elections do.
