(Hey shrink, I cannot believe how you screwed up big time)

[sickgambler]

Shrinky boy, I cant believe a smart guy like u who everyone looks up to, who happens to be so sharp, could make such a stupid bet, then be proud of it and copy and paste it here. Shrinky, how can you make that mistake. You shouldnt be too happy kenny boy, because you didnt really win 29,000 dollars, BUT you actually cost yourself 15,000 more dollars by making the same bet. Instead of winning 29,000, you could have easily won just under 44,000 if you did it a different way. I just finished reading that long thread, and noticed this post by you..


--Posted by THE SHRINK---


<TABLE borderColor=#ffffff border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Wager Type:</TD><TD class=accountText>Future</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Wager Status:</TD><TD class=accountText>Win</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader><NOBR>Risk / To Win Amount:</NOBR></TD><TD class=accountText>5,000.00 / 29,000.00 (USD)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Date Accepted:</TD><TD class=accountText>18-October-2004</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Time Accepted:</TD><TD class=accountText>9:32:46 AM (Pacific)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Amount Paid: </TD><TD class=accountText>29,000.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Description:</TD><TD class=accountText>Baseball Series Prices</TD></TR><TR><TD class=accountText></TD><TD class=accountText>League Championship Series Prices</TD></TR><TR><TD class=accountText></TD><TD class=accountText>Series Prices (Best of Seven -2-3-2)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=accountText></TD><TD class=accountText><NOBR>Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees</NOBR></TD></TR><TR><TD class=accountText></TD><TD class=accountText><NOBR>Red Sox +580</NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>________________</NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>Shrinky boy, all you had to do if you wanted to risk ONLY 5k was to bet these games individually, </NOBR>
<NOBR>instead of parlaying it. For example, </NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>You bet Game 5- Bos -140 for 3600 to lose 5,000 </NOBR><NOBR>(if win Game 5) You bet Game 6- Bos +125 for 8600 to win 10,750 </NOBR>
<NOBR>(if win Game 6) You bet Game 7- Bos +150 For 19,350..</NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>You would have won 43,375 dollars instead of 29,000 that you won, and the most you couldve risked</NOBR>
<NOBR>was your original 5k that you already risked. </NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>Shrinky boy, you should feel sick to the stomach by not having done this, especially</NOBR>
<NOBR>a smart guy like you.. I wish you would have called me before you made the bet, kenny boy.</NOBR>
<NOBR>I still love you kenny, and of all the guys in the world i know named THE SHRINK, you are my </NOBR>
<NOBR>favorite.. </NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR>But a smart man such as yourself with all the experience you have, should</NOBR>
<NOBR>never make a mistake like this, YOU SHOULD KNOW BETTER..</NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
<NOBR></NOBR>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[SubZaero]

Who says he didn't???

 

[SportSavant]

sicko....

how much would he have made if he had "Opened" a three game Parlay...... with

Boston in Game 5.....

Then Boston in Game 6

Then Boston in Game 7......

Many Books allow Open Parlays.... No? He would have won alot more this way aswell.... no?

How come I have more posts than you?

 

[FatTony]

So he was suppose to be able to predict the lines for each game?

Boston opened at -140 in game 6. Who knew it was going to a plus.

 

[GMON]

Shrinky: Can you say....................................

DOOH !!!

 

[sickgambler]

sports savant, if our own shrinky boy had opened up a 3 team parlay instead, he would have won 42,810 dollars, instead of a lousy 29,000. He would have gotten +860, instead of his horrible +580.. What a terrible move by THE SHRINK..

 

[Hitman26]

WOW!


Sick Gambler what a fantastic point! He boasted about his big play out of left field and he pulled a complete sucker move by not betting the first game straight for 5 dimes and then if it wins, letting it all ride on the second positioning himself to where he would have lost a net 5 dimes after the second play, and the third as well. What a freshman move. If I were about to invest 5 dimes in a series price I would definetly look at the projected pitching matchups and figure out the best possible payoffs.



Maybe he isn't so sharp after all

 

[THE SHRINK]

Sick does raise a valid point but hindsite is 20-20 and who in their right mind except for SG would know that SCHLLING would go off as a huge underdog in Game 6?

But, if you also read that thread CAREFULLY SG, you would have noted that I did indeed state that I bet the RED SOX in each individual game as well (not gloating, just stating the facts), starting with their first LOSS at Home, but then having won 4 consecutive games for me against the Yankees and 2 straight in this series as well...

I think it is very easy to do the math a postero, but I didn't have the luxury at that time...

But good point nonetheless from a stranger...:aktion033

Welcome back Sicko...

THE SHRINK

 

[FatTony]

He didn't make a bad move.


How could he know the lines for each game ahead of time?

 

[jjgold]

Sick Gambler is a math genius

 

[Hitman26]

Fat Tony and Shrinki:



How could he have known the lines before hand? Are you kidding me? How do you think the books price series plays? Do you think they pull them out of thin air? If they have the projected pitching matchups don't you think we can figure them out too? The books price them off of projected games prices based on projected pitching matchups. He made a bad bet because of the spread on the series price.

 

[SubZaero]

The way I see it, that's like saying "Geez I should've taken the Patriots on the ML 3 years ago instead of the +14 in the SB"

 

[THE SHRINK]

Hitman,

I'll be watching the game now but here is something to consider...

Apparently, there was a BIG DISCREPANCY in what the linesmakers thought the original line should be in Game 6 compared to the Closing Line due to the injury and uncertain status of Curt Schilling. I factored in that he was ready to go more so than others, and the result speaks for itself...

THE SHRINK

 

[FatTony]

Fat Tony and Shrinki:



How could he have known the lines before hand? Are you kidding me? How do you think the books price series plays? Do you think they pull them out of thin air? If they have the projected pitching matchups don't you think we can figure them out too? The books price them off of projected games prices based on projected pitching matchups. He made a bad bet because of the spread on the series price.

They knew Schilling was pitching game 6????? They didn't know Lowe was pitching game 7 till the day of the game!!! It was almost Wakefield.

Are you kidding?

 

[Hitman26]

SubZaero:


No it's not. Shrink was willing to invest 5 dimes that Boston would win the series when they were down 3 games to 1. Shrink believed that Boston would win the series and would gladly part with 5 dimes if they didn't.



Game 5 Shrink risks 5k on Boston to win game 5.
Game 6 Shrink risks whatever he won on game 5 and adds the original 5 dimes to it as to where if Boston lost, he would have been out a net 5 dimes for the 2 plays.


Game 7 Shrink risks whatever he won on games 5 and 6 and adds 5 dimes to it to where if Boston would have lost the game he would have been out a net 5 dimes for the entire series if Boston wins he would have won a lot more than he did by making the sucker bet series price with the high vig built in.




Look at it like this. It would be like Shrink going to a tire store and paying 1,000$ for a set of 4 tires when he could have bought each tire for 150$ and saved himself 400 bucks. Same exact principle.




Peace

 

[FatTony]

SubZaero:


No it's not. Shrink was willing to invest 5 dimes that Boston would win the series when they were down 3 games to 1. Shrink believed that Boston would win the series and would gladly part with 5 dimes if they didn't.



Game 5 Shrink risks 5k on Boston to win game 5.
Game 6 Shrink risks whatever he won on game 5 and adds the original 5 dimes to it as to where if Boston lost, he would have been out a net 5 dimes for the 2 plays.


Game 7 Shrink risks whatever he won on games 5 and 6 and adds 5 dimes to it to where if Boston would have lost the game he would have been out a net 5 dimes for the entire series if Boston wins he would have won a lot more than he did by making the sucker bet series price with the high vig built in.




Look at it like this. It would be like Shrink going to a tire store and paying 1,000$ for a set of 4 tires when he could have bought each tire for 150$ and saved himself 400 bucks. Same exact principle.




Peace

This is scary stupid. It is not the same. THERE'S NO WAY TO KNOW THE CLOSING LINE THREE DAYS IN ADVANCE FOR EACH GAME.


How about giving me the closing line for the next two games after tonight. (If it goes that far.)

 

[Glaken]

You guys settle this on the golf course at the Bash

 

[FatTony]

You guys settle this on the golf course at the Bash

You have no idea how annoyed I am right now.

 

[Hitman26]

LOL:



So you knew Schilling was gonna pitch and the linesmakers didn't? You think that Pinnacle didn't have that figured into the price. If you really want to impress me why don't you show me your rationale for the bet. Show me what you were thinking before game 5 and why you thought that the series price was worth the play? Why don't you give me YOUR projected starters and lines before hand so that you can show me your math which would justify the play mathmatically? The results speak for themselves? Why didn't you post the play before it had won? What about your play on Houston to win the series? What about your 3 "locks" earlier this year? Why don't you ever post those tickets?




Peace

 

[Dante]

You guys settle this on the golf course at the Bash

YEP :toothless


hell of a nice bet Shrinkage....and I never thought you won a bet!!! im a IDIOT!! :think: