Hey Quantum, here's a system I found, has it been posted?

[theriddler01]

Found this one saved on my puter this week. Do you know how this one has done? Not sure if it's been posted yet. I save so much crap then I find it by accident! My organization skills suck.

Play against any home team in the NFL who was a double digit dog last week and lost by 3 or less.

The theory associated with this is as follows....Teams that barely lose as a big dog are usually dwelling on that loss as opposed to looking to this weeks opponent. The oddsmakers also perceive the team as being better since they played a tight game hence adjusting the pointspread this week.

 

[theriddler01]

Just saw this one in the service plays. Sounds good. Thought I'd post for those interested. Situation doesn't come up too much. Who the hell thinks up these things???

PLAY AGAINST any sub .700 NFL road favorite off a win if they are scheduled to face the defending Super Bowl champs in their next game.

Play Against:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

ATS W-L Record
Since 1980: 15-1 (93%)

 

[Hamilbet]

You seem to be good with the stats. Any shot at you finding out how teams do ATS after playing the Steelers?

 

[rolltide]

riddler your 1st trend hit earlier this year when, after losing to NYG in OT, Cincy lost both SU and ATS against Cleve at home. Not sure if any other situations like that have come up this year. I know Detroit played Minny within a FG but not sure if they were a DD dog. If so, Detroit covered the following week at Houston

no situation like that this week

 

[theriddler01]

Yea I wish I found it earlier. I was cleaning up junk files and found it. I made a folder for all the stuff like this and will try to keep track of it weekly. Hope it comes up again before the season is over.

And I don't come up with these trends, I'm just a copy/paster!!! No way I would go and check out teams that played Pitt. Would take me days.

 

[quantumleap]

riddler your 1st trend hit earlier this year when, after losing to NYG in OT, Cincy lost both SU and ATS against Cleve at home. Not sure if any other situations like that have come up this year. I know Detroit played Minny within a FG but not sure if they were a DD dog. If so, Detroit covered the following week at Houston

no situation like that this week

Cincy was the only time this happened so far this year.

The system is 26-9 if fading a team in this situation.

At sportsdatabase the query string is:

H and p:line>=10 and p:margin<0 and p:margin>=-3

 

[fadethepublic1]

riddler your 1st trend hit earlier this year when, after losing to NYG in OT, Cincy lost both SU and ATS against Cleve at home. Not sure if any other situations like that have come up this year. I know Detroit played Minny within a FG but not sure if they were a DD dog. If so, Detroit covered the following week at Houston

no situation like that this week

Wouldn't Tampa qualify being that KC was a DD Dog and lost by 3 to the Jets LW?

as always... aloha.

 

[quantumleap]

Wouldn't Tampa qualify being that KC was a DD Dog and lost by 3 to the Jets LW?

as always... aloha.

KC lost by 4 to the Jets last week. If you use 4 as the criteria you get a system that has gone 32-15 ATS.

 

[theriddler01]

Damn you're good Q!! Thanks for answering, I figured if anyone knew it would be you.

 

[quantumleap]

You seem to be good with the stats. Any shot at you finding out how teams do ATS after playing the Steelers?

Teams are 157-130-13 ATS after playing the Steelers the week before:

p:team=Steelers

Since 2002 teams are 51-50-4 ATS:

p:team=Steelers and season>=2002