Here's the first chunk of my plays... more to come

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7-2 last week. 31-16 (66%) on the year.

I'm doing this week in 3 parts. First is money lines. I'll add more plays when totals come up. Then finally I'm adding some late stuff on Friday when I see how consensus data and line movement shape up.

Not handicapping every game because it takes too long. Just chose about 10-15 to look at that I liked with the eye test. If you'd like my opinion on something I didn't cap just ask and I'd be happy to weight in. Good luck to all.

Totals I'll be taking a closer look at for sure:


Virginia Tech/Pitt under
Tenn/Ole Miss under
UAB/MTSU over
WMU/Bowling Green over

NM State/Idaho over
Nebraska/Northwestern under

---------------------

My Handicapped Odds:

Minnesota -8, 48
Maryland -3, 51
WMU -1, 87
Idaho -2, 70
North Texas -8, 60
Northwestern pk, 49
LSU -3.5, 58
Oregon -15, 69

Leans:

Purdue +12.5
Washington +21

Plays:

Western Michigan +3


WMU is better on both sides of the ball. Bowling Green has that super quick offense that can put up points against anyone but the Broncos are incredibly balanced and capable of beating teams with both the run and the pass. Their defense isn't great and this will likely be a shootout but I feel WMU is better on both sides of the ball. Barring something crazy I'll be all over the over here as well when odds are released. Hoping for 75 or so.

Northwestern +7

Line is way off. Nebraska's offense has played nothing but garbage defenses thus far. They can't score against better defenses and Northwestern is very experienced on the defensive side of the football. I do worry about the Wildcats' offense but at home and likely holding Nebraska to around 24 I have to get on this one. Northwestern has enough balance in their offense to score points and they are due for some red zone success.

Kentucky +11

What's up with this line? Wildcats have a better defense and offenses are about even. I love Mark Stoops leading a defense AND Neil Brown leading an offense. Was high on this Kentucky team heading into the year and they've done well. They are a million times more experienced than LSU and could easily win this game outright. 11 is a joke line.

 

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Also email me at jaket@sportsoptions.com if you want to check out a free trial of the SportsOptions service. I have a few ways to hook you guys up.

NOTE: It's not a tout service. These are just my personal plays, and I work for SportsOptions which is a live odds/info/data service.
 

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WMU down to +2, Northwestern down to +6.5, Kentucky down to +9.5.

Hopefully everyone got in early. Totals will hopefully be up soon so I can get those out of the way.
 

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I kind of like Northwestern. But I have a feeling everybody is going to get burned with UK.
 

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I kind of like Northwestern. But I have a feeling everybody is going to get burned with UK.

This year's team is the best they've had in a long time, and LSU isn't the beast they've been in previous seasons. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the Wildcats pull the outright upset.

Good luck on the bets this week man.
 

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I have WMU favored by -4.......like the play, but didn't get my bet in early before the movement.......WMU wins outright anyway IMO.
 

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I have WMU favored by -4.......like the play, but didn't get my bet in early before the movement.......WMU wins outright anyway IMO.

I like that team a lot. Did you happen to get a number on the total? 87 for me which is one of the highest I've ever capped. No clue what this one opens at.
 

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Adding:

WMU/Bowling Green o70
 

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Lean:

Kentucky/LSU o51 (missed the 49.5 opener or I'd probably play it)
 

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Mentioned these other totals that haven't passed the eye test yet that I wanted to take a closer look at:

Virginia Tech/Pitt under
Tenn/Ole Miss under
UAB/MTSU over



My Odds:


Virginia Tech -5, 47
Ole Miss -21, 41
MTSU -1, 75


Leans:


Virginia Tech +2


Line suggests a play here but the line movement from V Tech -3 to V Tech +2 is not a spot I want to bet into.


Ole Miss/Tennessee u46.5


Missed the 48 opener which would have been a borderline play. No go as it stands.


Plays:


None.

 

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I like that team a lot. Did you happen to get a number on the total? 87 for me which is one of the highest I've ever capped. No clue what this one opens at.


I never play totals in college & some people are really good at them. I don't think my system predicts the scores as well as it it should to play totals........my score came up WMU 38-34......which is 72 points........
 

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I have V Tech at Pk, too close for me to play but I do also like your Kentucky, Wash U & Purdue plays.........

What do you think of N Dame vs Fla St? Lots of people think N Dame is over rated but I disagree, its Fla St thats over rated.........
 

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Thanks for the plays Jake T.! Look forward to more on Friday! Keep up the good work man.
 

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Last chunk of games. Games selected based on certain factors I trust such as line movement, consensus data, etc.



My Odds:


Houston -9, 57
CMU -9, 57
Cincinnati -17, 71
UCLA -9, 75
Texas Tech -10, 59
USC -15, 61
UNC -11, 73


Leans:


Houston -9

Math doesn't call for a play here at all but I feel that the Cougars are extremely underrated and the Owls are extremely overrated right now. There is a reason why everyone is taking Temple and the line is moving the other way. Might put something small on it.

Cincinnati/SMU o63.5

Cincinnati's defense is awful and SMU's scheme should allow them to put up quite a few points against awful defenses. Mustangs have played a killer schedule thus far. Not as bad as they seem. Mustangs don't have any defense either and Cincy can put up big points as well.

Colorado +21.5

Might end up playing this one small as well. Buffaloes' offense is really clicking. I don't trust their defense but the Trojans aren't really a threat to put up 40+ with all their injuries right now. USC's best defensive player is hurt as well (probable to play but not at 100%). Any thoughts from anyone on this?

Plays:

Kansas +13.5 (might be smart to wait since I think we could see 14 before gametime but I'm going now)

Texas Tech has a nice offense like usual but the Kansas defense has really limited top offenses this season. The Red Raiders don't okay any defense at all so it will be tough for the Jayhawks not to score points. They're awful offensively but should be good for 23 to 31 points. If the Kansas defense does its job as it has against better offenses this year, the Jayhawks winning outright wouldn't shock me.

North Carolina pk

My line wasn't even close, and I have the Yellow Jackets putting up 30+. I think the Tar Heels can get whatever they want against this defense. When North Carolina gets what they want they almost always put up 40+. Georgia Tech's offense isn't made to win shootouts. They grind out their 27-34 points each time out and hope the defense and pace are enough to get it done. Against North Carolina I just don't think it will be close to enough.


------------

Final card is:

Leans:

Purdue +12.5
Washington +21

Kentucky/LSU o51
Virginia Tech +2
Ole Miss/Tennessee u46.5
Houston -9
Cincinnati/SMU o63.5
Colorado +21.5

Plays:

Western Michigan +3
Northwestern +7
Kentucky +11
WMU/Bowling Green o70
Kansas +13.5
North Carolina pk
 

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Jake/T.............BOL with all your action this week end.............indy
 

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Thanks man. Also thanks to everyone else who wished me good luck earlier that I never got back to.

Hope you all win some big cash this week!
 

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