Here is a Good Baseball futures play

[John_Kerry]

I saw at WWTS/WOS this morning that they have up the CLEVELAND INDIANS to win the AL Championship at +6000.

60 to 1 odds is pretty good here for a few reasons. First, they are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. They have very good bats and some good starting pitching. Elarton, Sabathia and Westbrook have all been pitching well. Second, they are in the easiest division in baseball. 14 of their last 17 games will be against Seattle, Detroit, and Kansas City so they could easily go 13-4 or 14-3 in their last 17 games.

I think if the Indians can get into the playoffs the Yankees will be around -250 against them, but if they win that the opponent in the AL Championship Series would be about +100 because the Indians would get respect for playing so well at the end of the year and knocking off the Yankees. So after they make the playoffs a 100/6000 bet could be hedged like this.


Yankees $2150 to win $860

If Cleveland wins then

Opponent $3000 to win $3000

So either way a $100 bet returns $860 or you could say its +760 as to whether they will make the playoffs. Considering they are only +200 or +250 to win the division, a +760 to EITHER win division OR Wild Card has to be a good play.

p.s. If you bet this play and win lots of money please remember me in November. I need all the votes I can get because we all know what that Bush guy pulled 4 years ago.

 

[ChuckSims]

Its not a good bet. The reason is a simple one: the Indians are not going to make the playoffs. Another reason is that the NYY would be in the -450 range vs. Clev.

 

[Illini]

what did the Bush guy pull four years ago?

 

[John_Kerry]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Illini:
what did the Bush guy pull four years ago? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Gave his baked bean recipe to a dog.

 

[John_Kerry]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Chuck Sims:
Its not a good bet. The reason is a simple one: the Indians are not going to make the playoffs. Another reason is that the NYY would be in the -450 range vs. Clev. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Chuck,

I know the Yankees are always overvalued just because they are the Yankees, but do you really think they would be that high ? If so, the math would have to be reworked, but I think the play would still come out to being a +300 or +400 play that they make the playoffs. Seeing as how they are only +200 or +250 to win the AL Central its still a good bet. They could very easily win the division because noone in that divsion is playing anywhere near as well as the Indians and they are only 3 out.

 

[John_Kerry]

NEW MATH


Bet 100/6000 that they win AL

1st round Yankees -450 (I dont think its this high, but for argument sake)

Bet Yankees $2520 to win $560

2nd round Bet Opponent +100

Risk $3050 to win $3050


$460 profit( get back $560 either way on $100 bet). So this way it is +460 that they will make the playoffs. Still a good bet.

 

[John_Kerry]

IF Anaheim or Texas win the Wild card , they would have to play the Yankees in the first round. This would leave Cleveland plaing Oakland. That would be about a -120 Oakland.

 

[peteep]

I would imagine if Oakland and Cleveland played, it would be closer to -150.

 

[John_Kerry]

Cleveland is playing a 3 game series starting tonight with the Twins. The Indians have been hot and the Twins havent been so its a good time. If the Indians can sweep they will be tied for first and Sunday Afternoon this will be a great play. If the Twins sweep this will be a terrible play as they will be 6 out. I think its a good play considering this.

#1) 60 to 1 odds - The White sox are 5 games out and they are only 30 to 1 odds.

#2) The Indians have a soft schedule in September.

#3) There are no power teams in the AL.

$100 bet returns $6100 thats very low risk/high return ratio for a team that is much better than most think. By the way, other books have them at 15 or 20 to 1 to win the AL, WWTS has 60 to 1.

 

[ChuckSims]

John, With Cle winning tonight it makes me want to take a closer look at your futures play! What state are you from? Would it be Cleveland?

 

[wantitall4moi]

Did the same thing with Fla lasty year, and it is a good bet. I got Cle last week at 100-1 at WWTS, not sure what they are there now, thnk they are 40-1 or something like that. I know they were over 100-1 at a few other places, but I feel a little more comfortable with WWTS.

Anytime you can et a legit contender at those odds it is worth the shot, because you don't have a lot at risk, and the potential is great.

But the thing is, IF Cle beats don't epect much respsect. Fla beat SF last year and the Cubs were still like -280 against them.

The thing is finding a happy medium. The best thing is to take a smll position befre the series, then hope they win one of the road games, that will get the odds really low. Of course that is more gamble, but if it works your outlay in that first series is much lower. Besides if you only bet 100 bux on them it isn't like a major loss if they get beat up.

But the first thing they have to do is get in. With a lot of games left against Minn, and finally starting to gel, they have a major chance. The hot teams late are always themost dangerous.

40-1 is still worth taking a shot onthem with IMO.

 

[ChuckSims]

I am really taking a closer look at the Indians.

 

[randyrohm]

I agree there is some value here

 

[FunkSoulBrother]

Clevland Indians: The flavor of the week, August 8-15, 2004.

Go Twins.

 

[drunkguy]

key to futures: hit them early and shop for bargains.

At "that other site" I posted Cleveland @ 1500-1 WS and 150-1 AL back on June 22 using Royal.

Although that line was far off, you could have also gotten 150-1 at 5 dimes, 75-1 Cascade or Carib. Olympic was only 40-1 on that day.

Taking 40-1 now seems a little late and I wouldn't consider it a terrific bet right now.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Considering they have lost 7 straight, have close to no chance of getting wild card, I would buy a hat. At least you will have something after season is over. Best Wishes...OF

My key to futures, betting teams that will make playoffs.