Help me out... Parlay / Hedge situation

[Journeyman]

I had a nice winner earlier on game one for 500, game two Sc St (ML) was part of my two team Free parlay 300 to win 1103 tied in with Miss coming up shortly...

So I have already won 500 today, I could hedge out for another 500, I also made a bet on Miss -1 earlier for 500...

Should I just buy it back and take the 1000 profit, or let my whole day ride on MISS-1 to win a total of 2103 ?

Everytime I buy out I would have won anyway...


What would you guys do?:nono5:

 

[Toto Di Stefano]

Call me pvssy but I would buy it back.

:biggrinin

 

[Kapusta]

Wouldn't trust Ole Miss to win you a game right now. I mean Illinois st. isn't a very good team but there is a reason this game is close to a pickem. Either way it could slide i like the Redbirds at least they have 2 scorers in double-digits. Good Luck I wouldn't count on Ole Miss to bring in the cash. Hope it helps!

 

[viking611]

Don't do it. I'm confident in my alma malter losing. They are not good.

 

[Journeyman]

I think I'm just going to take the sure money...What really bugs me is everytime I do this I would have won...but thinking about how mad I will be if I lose after having a nice afternoon, I am going to take the profit and move on to the night card.

thanks

 

[Journeyman]

Maybe I will just buy back the straight bet on Miss -1 for 500

That way I will still profit for the day even if the parlay goes down...

 

[viking611]

If it was a free parlay, I would just let it ride JMan..

 

[Journeyman]

Yeah it is, but I put 500 on Miss-1 earlier too...I was afraid it would go to 2

I am overdueto be on the right side of the hedges lol

 

[viking611]

I realized afterward you put straight 500. You could buy that one back if you want to be safe. I would let it ride still. I like the bet. But buying back the 500 will still put you up nice for 2 games!

 

[DarrylParsons]

Journey,

The right thing to do is to make sure your overall risk on the MS game is no more than what the Kelly Criterion would allow...

If it's a decent play, then 1% of bankroll is what you should risk. A very good play maybe 1.5%. A GOM or GOY level play, then 2% but no more. If you've got more than that on it already then cut back enough to leave yourself with the right amount.

Staying alive is number one priority. Making good bets is number 2.

My 2c...gl in any case.

 

[Journeyman]

I'm gonna buy back the side play and let the parlay ride...I just feel awful when i buy out of winners, something I am uncanny at...I have bought out of 4-5 huge games i would have won in the past 4 weeks..including the UNDER on sunday night which was my largest play of the year....and i bought it all back at the half.

 

[Journeyman]

Also there's a decent chance I could still have that option at halftime...

GL guys thanks..

 

[MadCapper]

luckilly you hedged

 

[Journeyman]

LOL- I would like to know what all these guys saying Ill State sucks think now???

Unreal start tonight, I was hoping to have the full hedge option available at halftime...I cannot ever make the right call in these particular spots..Yes i did hedge but not fully...Still not complaining, but I have horrible luck when to hedge and when not to hedge.

 

[Journeyman]

Anything can happen in basketball, hoping for a miracle run to get even by halftime,lol..

 

[MadCapper]

and everyone had the under LOL

going way over

 

[MadCapper]

well maybe its not going over after all.

weird game this ncaa is

 

[MadCapper]

ALL Northern Ill St.

Blowout city.