HELP.... Couple Capping Questions??

RickDel · Oct 21, 2008

Sorry if these three questions seem obvious or stupid. I've been betting for the past 10 years and have LOST consistently each and every year. My performance has gotten much better, but my money management is the major problem. This year I was winning consistently since the start or the season, but threw all my winnings away this past week and even owe my local some money (still can't believe how bad I did this week). Anyhow, I normally system is to just tailing "good cappers" or taking big spreads (home dog getting double digits or play the opposite on the really high/low totals) which will normally break even at worse; however, I'm ready to start learning how to do this shit right and STOP LOSING!! So, here are a couple basics questions that I'd like to start with. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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1) Are the lines set to make the games even or the betting even? (are they set to get equal amounts of money coming in on both sides, regardless of what Vegas actually feels the line should open at)<o

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2) Is there any truth or benefit to considering the Strength of Schedule when making a pick? (who cares is <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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3) When you guys ‘cap’ do you even consider the games against weaker opponents or do you leave those games out? (would I have a more accurate system if I only cap ‘conference’ games)

4) Lastly, I’ve read a lot of people criticize others for the wager/unit amounts, but can you really expect to win money if you place consistence/equal bets? (if I pay 10% juice, then I already have to win more then 60% to get ahead; however, if I fluctuate and go big on strong plays I might do better) Although, I normally win the small ones and lose the big ones, which makes me unsure as to which is the smart way to bet????? <o

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Here’s just a couple quick questions, but any advice or information would be GREATLY appreciated. I’m going to attempt to cap my own games by reviewing the stats, identifying key injured players, and comparing the coaching staff this week. I realize I’ll be doing this on a rudimentary level, but that’s why I’m asking for advice. PLEASE no sarcasm or lectures on money management. <o

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Also, any web sites or computer programs you might want to share would also be appreciated. Right now I’m using NCAA.org as my primary source for stats. <o

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Thanks - Rick

studmlb55 · Oct 21, 2008

4) Lastly, I’ve read a lot of people criticize others for the wager/unit amounts, but can you really expect to win money if you place consistence/equal bets? (if I pay 10% juice, then I already have to win more then 60% to get ahead; however, if I fluctuate and go big on strong plays I might do better) Although, I normally win the small ones and lose the big ones, which makes me unsure as to which is the smart way to bet?????

60%?? No sir, If you hit around 53% u'll do just fine!

BOL STUD

RickDel · Oct 21, 2008

Hmmmm, that must be a math thing I don't understand.... I probably should have said 55%, but I don't quite understand 53%..... (not trying to say you're wrong, just don't understand the math)

Either way, that's better for me! Thanks for the response...

CrapGame · Oct 21, 2008

#4
I just recently became a level bettor. After 5 years of betting anywhere from .5 unit up to a dime on game I have switched to the same unit every game. I might throw some sucker bet parlarys in the mix and some money line action on dogs but its level. My old way of betting I would always lose my bankroll at some point in the season. Week 4 of this year I lost everything I won plus 75% of my bankroll. At that point I decided that I will try this level betting. After a few weeks of this betting I am back to being up 4 units.
I know had I been betting my old way I would be up 4 dimes but I bet you I will still be here in the long run.

Its not the same kind of action but its fun.

CowboyT · Oct 21, 2008

Q1. No, they don't set lines to get equal action. Why? Because:
a) by creating lines to do so would make some gamblers understand that throwing darts is just as effective as picking. Thus, there would be less interest. No one could beat the house or prove that they were able to. There would probably be no therx.com if everyone was a losing -110 bettor. Yes, people would still bet, just not with the same consistency. Think slots.
b) they make more money by setting traps.
c) anyone could be a bookie. The way it is now, Vegas can have a few losing weeks to the general betting public and be fine. Local bookies who take too much action lose their ass. If you could guarantee a +5 vig on every bet, why not set up shop? Lessens competition.

Q2-3. Basically the same question. Yes, you want to look at who each team has played before and how they played them, whether good or bad. Is USC's win over Ohio State more impressive than their throttling of Wash St? Sure. But, to beat a Div 1 Pac-10 team 69-0 is impressive, and should be figured into your selections. More importantly, you need to understand that lines makers have already included these games into the line. There are very few people who can win at this and even less people who are better at breaking down games vs the line than the lines makers.

Q4. Yes, it's 53-55% depending on your juice. It's up to you whether you bet straight or unit. However, betting something like 50 units on one game and 5 units on another is ridiculous. Why? Because the 50 unit game is not even close to 10 times as likely to hit as the 5 unit. You should probably be betting .5-3 units. 10% of your games should be in the .5 unit range (to get your feet wet, if you absolutely must have action, etc.); 80% between 1-2 units (including 1.5 units - just about every bet); and 10% over 2 but under 3 (for games that you really feel certain with).

If you're having problems with money management, bet based on a percentage. I bet 2% of my bankroll per unit. As my bank goes down, so does my unit size. A $10,000 bank would make a $200 unit. A $500 bank would have a $10 unit. You might laugh, but this is how you make money. Not by betting 25% on something you REALLY think is a LOCK. I've not bet more than 8% of my bank on any one game for several years.

This also means I have 50 units in my bank always. I never have more than 25 units at risk (hard and fast rule), and rarely have more than 10 units at risk (casual rule). I have actually adjusted my unit size mid day (between the early and afternoon games).

Also, bet the over 43 tonight. Good luck.

cards52 · Oct 21, 2008

#4
If your bet size is $100 and your price is -110 on every bet, your break even point is a win rate of 52.4%:
100x - 110(1-x) = 0
x = 52.4%

If your price is -105, you break even at 51.2%
100x - 105(1-x) = 0
x = 51.2%

The point is to make sure you are getting the best price on every bet you make. A few cents of juice here and there adds up over thousands of bets. The day you sign up at an exchange you instantly start making more (or losing less) money. I carry 2 regular offshore books, an exchange, and a local to make sure I am getting the best price.

Flat betting is the way to go for me. I bet 2% of my bankroll on every bet and have never worried about going broke. Anything higher and your risk of ruin goes up pretty quick. It takes a lot of the excitement out of the gamble, but it is nice to have a steady flow of income.

Also, I agree with the over tonight.

CowboyT · Oct 21, 2008

cards52 said:
#4
If your bet size is $100 and your price is -110 on every bet, your break even point is a win rate of 52.4%:
100x - 110(1-x) = 0
x = 52.4%

If your price is -105, you break even at 51.2%
100x - 105(1-x) = 0
x = 51.2%

The point is to make sure you are getting the best price on every bet you make. A few cents of juice here and there adds up over thousands of bets. The day you sign up at an exchange you instantly start making more (or losing less) money. I carry 2 regular offshore books, an exchange, and a local to make sure I am getting the best price.

Flat betting is the way to go for me. I bet 2% of my bankroll on every bet and have never worried about going broke. Anything higher and your risk of ruin goes up pretty quick. It takes a lot of the excitement out of the gamble, but it is nice to have a steady flow of income.

Also, I agree with the over tonight.

Thanks for the math and welcome.

You're 100% right with the access to multiple lines and vigs.

Also, a very important thing to do is to track your plays. Look at trends. Star plays that you think are your best plays of the week even though you're only betting 1 unit on them. Ask yourself if your confidence is reasonable?

I say this because honestly, if you ask a bunch of your buddies (and yourself) who like football to circle their favorite ten games against the lines each week, find out of their "picks" the five-ten most popular, and then bet 2% of your bank on the opposite at an exchange (matchbook.com is probably the best IMO), you will have a + season.

Jetplane · Oct 21, 2008

#1) It really depends on who i suppose. i don't know how Vegas does it... but I incorporate the 2. I start out with what I put the line at (or adjusting vegas' line) and then tailor it to snipe in players, you find out what teams are heavy week in and week out so you "tax" it or move the line to make it harder. Sometimes I'll be 1.5 points off of Vegas.

#2 I think SOS should be a factor, why not? Its like saying WIND and RAIN are not factors.

#3 I consider any game a live game if I have an edge. If it's Texas vs WKY, I'll still play it if I think I have an edge.

#4 CrapGame is right about betting EVEN units keeping u in the long run. It keeps your head level and it's less emotional. Sometimes when yo win a big game, you think u can do it again--and it fails... sometimes on the very same team.

I try to keep my emotions out and I do bet at diff units but back in the day I remember that EVEN units (with my high %age of winning) was keeping me going all season as opposed to me being in the shitter on a few ocaissions this year because the game took a dump and I risked 50% of my money (which i do frequently on "POWER" games)

RickDel · Oct 21, 2008

A lot of GREAT (REALLY GREAT) info here guys and THANK YOU VERY MUCH!!!! I'm going to read these responses a few more times before responding myself.

FairWarning · Oct 21, 2008

RickDel - Look at some of the strengths/weaknesses of the cappers here. Conan + Railbird are real good out West. Lewis, GoSooners + SoonersBS are great for Big 12. Gravy is very good in the Big 10. Know who is giving out info here. Don't get sucked in by Game of the Year plays, money management is key.

I have tried to stay away from TV games and look for weaker conferences. Often those lines are weaker and don't get near the action that Penn St-Ohio St will get. TV games are usually very sharp lines. If people have info from Mt West, MAC, Sun Belt, WAC etc, value that info. The line movement on those games are usually very sharp.