Hedge help

[doctor9]

Hi guys. What would you do? I have a 5 team parlay waiting for over kc tonight (46.5) if I let it ride I get back $600 if I hedge $300 either way. Do I gamble or take guaranteed ??

 

[Grindstone30]

hedge

 

[EzMoney012]

I would hedge

 

[TheFalls]

You for sure hedge. I'm not huge on parlays, but in this situation, I would make a play on the 1H under and the total game under.
Or live bet if you can.

Guessing it will be 47 closer to game time.

 

[varkeyboy]

Always hedge.....I'm on the OVER 56.5 for a 5*. I hope you hit. But you have guarantee $ awaiting your hands.

 

[doctor9]

Tnx for responses guys. Falls what are you suggesting, 150 per half on under? Or just do game for 300? Tnx again

 

[TheFalls]

Assuming you put $25 on the parlay...

I would just play the game under for $150 and 1H under for $50. And see what pops up at half.
The obvious easy choice if you don't want to sweat is $300 on under 47-but that isn't why we do this. We need a sweat.
Because deep down you are pulling for the parlay to hit.

 

[doctor9]

T u

 

[Dan2330]

Personally I would not mess around with 1H and just hedge it on the game Under. Be even better if you could widen the gap a bit maybe even buy up a hook on it. It's not a great middle ground but you would have a shot at it with a final like 27-20.

 

[playindeez]

hedge, but i personally dont do it for half. how much was the parlay for? if it was for like 50, i might hedge it for 150 or 200

 

[Spaceman1218]

It's all about your expected value. Lets say it is a $25 parlay that pays $600. Essentially the o/u is a 50/50 proposition. So what are the possibilities of you not hedging. If the game goes under you are -$25. If the game goes under you are +$600 minus your $25 investment for a $575 profit. Your expected value of not hedging is ($575-$25)/2 or $275. So what if you do hedge by putting $300 on the Under. If the game goes Under you win $300 minus your $25 parlay for a profit of $275. If the game goes over you win $600 minus your $25 investment minus the $330 Under bet for a $245 profit. So the expected value of hedging is ($275+245)/2 or $260. I am sure I will get bashed for saying this but it is accurate to say that in the long run you make more money by NOT hedging.

 

[Biz]

$200 on the game under. I always want to get paid a bit more if my initial wager is correct.

 

[BigCat]

I agree with Biz 200-225 on the under. BOL

 

[BernieVegas]

Buy 2pts and bet Under 48 1/2 and risk half of the amount you would win on your parlay $300. Buying two points would put you past two key O/U totals, 47 and 48. Then pray the total lands on 47 or 48 and you'll clean the mans asshole out. No brainer advise a sure $300 or a nice $825.00 profit. CAN'T LOSE!!!

Yours in Winners
BernieV

By the way, if a person is about to win or lose $600 and doesn't hedge they have a mental defect

 

[SherwoodBlount]

Double Down on Over or leave it alone...not the soundest advice but we all gamblers

 

[doctor9]

A lot of great advice. I bet $25. But I gotta b honest, I hit 4 teams already n my gut is repeating to me to let it go n wait for the over. Listen it not life changing money n I love to sweat it out. I'm sure I'll b called an a@@hole but I think I'm riding it out.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

There's people that will tell you to never hedge but I like guaranteed money & the position you're in, its guaranteed you receive at least half of the parlay, IMO, always hedge!

 

[TheFalls]

A lot of great advice. I bet $25. But I gotta b honest, I hit 4 teams already n my gut is repeating to me to let it go n wait for the over. Listen it not life changing money n I love to sweat it out. I'm sure I'll b called an a@@hole but I think I'm riding it out.

nice hit a@@hole!

 

[doctor9]

tnx falls! chalk one up to the gut