Heads up! PLAG Bills trend in play this week!

[mendozaline]

I had a long-running thread at the other place, tracking the trend of playing against the Bills ATS the week immediately after they played the Dolphins. I've personally been playing this for about 20 years.

Having lost all the information I had in that thread, I'm going to start a new one here.

I went back and put together the Bills results in this situation. Keep in mind, the Bills sometimes find themselves in this situation just once a year when they end the season against Miami, and sometimes they get 3 shots a year if they meet the Dolphins in the playoffs or the last regular-season meeting a week before a playoff game.

Date/Opponent.........score.......ATS result v. Bills line

01/22/23 v. Cin.......10-27........L (-6)
12/24/22 v. Chi.......35-13........W (-8)
10/02/22 v. Bal........23-20........P (-3)
11/07/21 v. Jax...........6-9..........L (-14.5)
09/26/21 v. Wsh......43-21........W (-7.5)
01/09/21 v. Ind.........27-24.......L (-7)
09/27/20 v. LAR.......35-12.......W (-1.5)
11/24/19 v. Den.......37-20.......W (-7)
10/27/19 v. Phi.........13-31.......L (-1)
12/09/18 v. NYJ........23-27.......L (-4.5)
01/07/18 v. Jax..........3-10........W (+8)
12/24/17 v. NE.........16-37.......L (+11)
01/01/17 v. NYJ.......10-30.......L (-3.5)
10/23/16 v. NE.........25-41.......L (+5.5)
11/12/15 v. NYJ.......22-17.......W (+2.5)
10/04/15 v. NYG......10-24.......L (-6.5)
11/24/14 v. NYJ........38-3.........W (-2.5)
09/21/14 v. SD.........10-22........L (-2.5)
12/29/13 v. NE.........20-34........L (+7.5)
10/27/13 v. NO........17-35........L (+10.5)
12/30/12 v. NYJ........28-9.........W (-3.5)
11/25/12 v. Ind.........13-20.......L (+2)
12/24/11 v. Den........40-14......W (+2.5)
11/27/11 v. NYJ........24-28.......W (+9.5)
12/26/10 v. NE..........3-34.........L (+9)
09/19/10 v. GB.........7 -34.........L (+12.5)
12/03/09 v. NYJ........13-19.......L (+3.5)
10/11/09 v. Cle...........3-6..........L (-6)
12/14/08 v. NYJ.........27-31......W (+9)
11/02/08 v. NYJ.........17-26......L (-5)
12/16/07 v. Cle............0-8.........L (+4)
11/17/07 v. NE..........10-56......L (+16)
12/24/06 v. Ten..........29-30......L (-5.5)
09/24/06 v. NYJ.........20-28......L (-6)
12/11/05 v. NE............7-35.......L (+4)
10/16/05 v. NYJ.........27-17......W (-3)
12/12/04 v. Cle...........37-7........W (-11)
10/24/04 v. Bal............6-20........L (+5.5)
12/27/03 v. NE............0-31........L (+9.5)
09/28/03 v. Phi..........13-23.......L (-3)
12/08/02 v. NE...........17-27.......L (+4)
10/27/02 v. Det.........24-17........P (-7)
12/02/01 v. SF.............0-35.........L (+8)
12/11/00 v. Ind...........20-44.......L (+6)
10/15/00 v. SD...........27-24.......L (+10)
11/21/99 v. NYJ...........7-17........L (-2)
10/10/99 v. Pit............24-21.......L (-6.5)
11/08/98 v. NYJ.........12-34.......L (+3.5)
09/20/98 v. Stl............33-34.......L (-5)
11/23/97 v. Ten...........14-31......L (+3.5)
11/09/97 v. NE............10-31......L (+3)
12/22/96 v. KC.............20-9........W (-5)
10/20/96 v. NYJ..........25-22.......L (-7)
01/06/96 v. Pit............21-40.......L (+7)
12/24/95 v. Hou.........17-28.......L (-3)
11/05/95 v. Ind...........16-10.......W (+3)
12/11/94 v. Min..........17-21.......L (-3)
10/16/94 v. Ind...........17-27.......L (-9.5)
12/26/93 v. NYJ..........16-14.......L (-7)
10/03/93 v. NYG.........17-14.......L (-5)
01/31/93 v. Dal...........17-52........L (+6)
11/22/92 v. Atl............41-14........W (-14)
10/11/92 v. LAR...........3-20.........L (-7.5)
11/24/91 v. NE............13-16.......L (-8)

I'm showing a result of 46-16-2 playing against the Bills in this spot.

Please just overlook any possible typos in the list.

I'm only including the record against the closing line in this new thread, but there were times better lines were widely available.

Fair to note that the trend overall hasn't been doing very well in the most-recent 8 games.

Playing this trend this week with #451 Jags +5.5 or better.

 

[StackinGreen]

So with this team or similar players (recently) you admit it's a loser.

The only angle you might have here is that the Jags are still in England. Good luck if you decide to test one of the best teams in football, at a relatively small (not big) spread.

 

[mendozaline]

I'm not "admitting" anything, just reporting the trends. People generally have always appreciated this thread.

I'm also not sure that just playing the "best" teams at relatively small spreads is the long-term formula for success.

 

[cigar]

I count 12-1-1 in the month of october.

 

[jstwinn7]

Thanks for the reminder doza. Appreciate you putting this information together again. Best of luck to all

 

[indiana]

Mendoza....always appreciate your added info buddy.....thank you.....
here's to a solid weekend of winners.....indy

 

[mendozaline]

Wasn't too difficult today.

Trend is now 47-16-2 ATS

The Bills play Miami the last week of the season this year, so the only way this comes up again is if the Bills have a playoff game the next week.

 

[cigar]

13-1-1 in October.

 

[bristolnole]

Wow Doza, now that you mentioned it, I forgot about this trend from before! Very excellent that you took the time to put it back together. Thanks a lot dude, appreciate your efforts.

 

[mendozaline]

Wasn't too difficult today.

Trend is now 47-16-2 ATS

The Bills play Miami the last week of the season this year, so the only way this comes up again is if the Bills have a playoff game the next week.

The Bills play Miami the last week of the season this year, so the only way this comes up again is if the Bills have a playoff game the next week.

Last chance until next season!

Personally played #145 Pittsburgh Steelers +10 -120 (2 units) already.

 

[exploited17]

I don't think it is relevant for the playoffs. Many regular season situations don't apply. I do lean heavily this way though.
Bills are also 0-7 ats last 7 as DD favorites if the line ends 10

 

[skoalbandit33]

I don't think it is relevant for the playoffs. Many regular season situations don't apply. I do lean heavily this way though.
Bills are also 0-7 ats last 7 as DD favorites if the line ends 10

An NFL team getting 2 scores always gets my attention. Sometimes it works out some not. But NFL talent between the best and worst team can be razor thin.

 

[mendozaline]

I don't think it is relevant for the playoffs. Many regular season situations don't apply. I do lean heavily this way though.
Bills are also 0-7 ats last 7 as DD favorites if the line ends 10

I've always applied this when available in the playoffs. If you look at the 6 January games listed above, the Bills went 1-5 ATS in those games, with the lone cover being a 7-point loss as an 8-point dog.

 

[XXII]

Game9000….
Take the dogs wildcard weekend- take the favorites divisional round? Don’t quote me, Someone here has the stats and trends to back it up.
I’m interested in seeing the trend.

 

[XXII]

I've always applied this when available in the playoffs. If you look at the 6 January games listed above, the Bills went 1-5 ATS in those games, with the lone cover being a 7-point loss as an 8-point dog.

I had this in my notes from October.

Buffalo bills

Play AGAINST after week playing Miami , especially in October

 

[nevinbrett6]

Pittsburgh might cover and mostly will
But they will not win su no way
Good luck with the trend

 

[cashflow50]

And without Watt

 

[hotwired93]

Hi Doza...Titan24 from our old dead site..Good luck my friend

 

[mendozaline]

Hi Doza...Titan24 from our old dead site..Good luck my friend

Good to see you! I'm here trying to do the same stuff I was doing over there lol

BOL!

 

[mendozaline]

So close.

Trend is now 47-17-2 ATS

On to next year!