Classic post-mortem of a day in the stock market...
Since 76ers only have a TINY mathematical chance at the playoffs, hard to believe any group would come in around 1 PM EST to pound this dog. It could be the right side, but doesn't rate to be compelling and most "moves" are AM or last two hours prior to post. My question remains, esp. to anyone around the Atlanta area who catches local sports reports.
the only assumption i can make is that $$ can be the only reason for this moment...don best has not reported anything.....i didn't know that there are specfic times that lines can move.....were talking about the atl hawks...right?
this line has move from being atl -1.5 up to -2.5 and back down to 1.5.... i'm under the assumption $$ move it up and also down...if there is any other info that indicates different i will let you know
my pr indicates that the 76ers should be -1....that's a 3.5 pt diff which determines if i make a play along with other factors...gl
i will keep you updated if any changes...
this line has move from being atl -1.5 up to -2.5 and back down to 1.5.... i'm under the assumption $$ move it up and also down...if there is any other info that indicates different i will let you know
my pr indicates that the 76ers should be -1....that's a 3.5 pt diff which determines if i make a play along with other factors...gl
i will keep you updated if any changes...
Hawks fans are a given. Refusal to risk $ on the Hawks might have left cash on the table, as they have played hard at home, particularly once Bob Sura became energized. ATL is 9-2 ATS and SU last 11 home games when they were rested, and 14-5-1 ATS at home with rest stretching further back. Their coach has made the best of a difficult situation, IMO. Philly, meanwhile, fought well at home undermanned and a couple of young players got better. However, they have won 2 of their last 16 road games SU, one without AI, and that was at the hapless Bulls, all while still being in the playoff race. I think any formula with a weighted moving average of performances and clear delineation of home/away results would find the Hawks some kind of favorite tonight. The original line move of 1.5-2.25 was a reasonable, yet small adjustment. The second move was one which would tend to indicate new information. Any group with a little savvy would otherwise have waited until late afternoon to bet Philly, when there are more bookmakers and the Hawks may have risen at some places to 3. My question is not "in the dark", nor does it reflect some "newbie" gap in understanding. At 45, I'm older than many here and have been at this for nearly 20 years in a meaningful way.
I would still appreciate any info other than what is known so far.
Thanks,
Dolphin
I would still appreciate any info other than what is known so far.
Thanks,
Dolphin
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dolphin:
Hawks fans are a given. Refusal to risk $ on the Hawks might have left cash on the table, as they have played hard at home, particularly once Bob Sura became energized. ATL is 9-2 ATS and SU last 11 home games when they were rested, and 14-5-1 ATS at home with rest stretching further back. Their coach has made the best of a difficult situation, IMO. Philly, meanwhile, fought well at home undermanned and a couple of young players got better. However, they have won 2 of their last 16 road games SU, one without AI, and that was at the hapless Bulls, all while still being in the playoff race. I think any formula with a weighted moving average of performances and clear delineation of home/away results would find the Hawks some kind of favorite tonight. The original line move of 1.5-2.25 was a reasonable, yet small adjustment. The second move was one which would tend to indicate new information. Any group with a little savvy would otherwise have waited until late afternoon to bet Philly, when there are more bookmakers and the Hawks may have risen at some places to 3. My question is not "in the dark", nor does it reflect some "newbie" gap in understanding. At 45, I'm older than many here and have been at this for nearly 20 years in a meaningful way.
I would still appreciate any info other than what is known so far.
Thanks,
Dolphin<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
nice write up Dolphin......i'm assuming you like the hawks this evening?
....will keep you posted if any new info on the game
Hawks fans are a given. Refusal to risk $ on the Hawks might have left cash on the table, as they have played hard at home, particularly once Bob Sura became energized. ATL is 9-2 ATS and SU last 11 home games when they were rested, and 14-5-1 ATS at home with rest stretching further back. Their coach has made the best of a difficult situation, IMO. Philly, meanwhile, fought well at home undermanned and a couple of young players got better. However, they have won 2 of their last 16 road games SU, one without AI, and that was at the hapless Bulls, all while still being in the playoff race. I think any formula with a weighted moving average of performances and clear delineation of home/away results would find the Hawks some kind of favorite tonight. The original line move of 1.5-2.25 was a reasonable, yet small adjustment. The second move was one which would tend to indicate new information. Any group with a little savvy would otherwise have waited until late afternoon to bet Philly, when there are more bookmakers and the Hawks may have risen at some places to 3. My question is not "in the dark", nor does it reflect some "newbie" gap in understanding. At 45, I'm older than many here and have been at this for nearly 20 years in a meaningful way.
I would still appreciate any info other than what is known so far.
Thanks,
Dolphin<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
nice write up Dolphin......i'm assuming you like the hawks this evening?
....will keep you posted if any new info on the game
Thanks Moon...
If they are healthy, I believe they will come with much of the home tone they've had lately, out to finish the year on as up a note as they can. Philly has fought as well as they could, but you may see a team whose bags are mentally packed tonight. Some late season games are other than random and I believe this may be one of them.
If they are healthy, I believe they will come with much of the home tone they've had lately, out to finish the year on as up a note as they can. Philly has fought as well as they could, but you may see a team whose bags are mentally packed tonight. Some late season games are other than random and I believe this may be one of them.
I saw the same,,,, I analyze the movements also,,, I was watching lines move and it WAS an Organized move Downward,,, Now that doesnt answer your question,,,, but I feel VERY strongly it was Organized,,,, Now with that,,, I say event he sharps are wrong sometimes,,, I have ATL,,,,
good luck,,
tater
good luck,,
tater
Dolphin,,,, Heres the thing,,,, when it comes to KEY numbers why would an (ORGASNIZED MOVE) stop at 1.5??? why not even??why not Phili -1?? so reguardless my thinking is,,,, they like the +2,,, but its a small play for them....
Dolphin,,, Youve seen my posts I NEVER play sides,,, well,, hardley ever,,, but I watch the line moves on sides and totals,, I have tracked them all YEAR,,, sooooo with that,, I am not concerned at all,,, I see this as a Value Play from some ORG. and they are just trying to get the 2,,,, I do believe still we have the right side,,
good luck,,,
Tater
Dolphin,,, Youve seen my posts I NEVER play sides,,, well,, hardley ever,,, but I watch the line moves on sides and totals,, I have tracked them all YEAR,,, sooooo with that,, I am not concerned at all,,, I see this as a Value Play from some ORG. and they are just trying to get the 2,,,, I do believe still we have the right side,,
good luck,,,
Tater
Thanks again for your thoughts...the closer we get to post, the more nearly apparent it is that indeed a perception of value was all that was involved. However, the average book moved 1 point. The board was nearly all 2.5 and now is mostly 1.5, with a bit of 1. Right after the move, most went to 1, with a single PK showing at a major out. Since this isn't a prominent game and the motivations are hard to gauge, a single piece of info wouldn't get the full effect of something on, say, LA v/ PTL.
