Hawaii will win this game, but by how much is the ?

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Aloha gang, hope you all are having successful days. I wasn't going to release this game tonight, but since I am playing it and Coach Jones seems to be saying it. I will let you in on what is going on.

Tonights game, we can safely say Hawaii will win straight up. But will they cover the large number is another issue. My reasons here will be simple, and void of all the stats, trends, systems, etc, hopefully. Tonight, I am laying the heavy wood and taking the Warriors for 3 Units in what I see will be a rout. 63-24 .

This game is an important game, though it is not against the league leaders, it presents still a must win for the Warriors. This game, some will feel is a let down spot for the Warriors after an hard fought match on the road at La Tech. I don't think that will happen here tonight. This team, especially their star players , all fell victim to believing their press clippings on how they should dominate the WAC. Well after suffering embarrassing losses to Tulsa and UNLV, the guys could of packed it in for the year. Due to the local leadership on this team, they made a commitment to follow through on this season and not to take anything or any team for granted. Even Coach Jones pulled out all the stops, which was evident in reorganizing the travel plans throughout the year.

The practices this week were intense, and the guys know about UTEP and their game against La Tech. inwhich UTEP could have won. That game La Tech played shitty because they got caught looking ahead to the matchup with the Warriors, the following week. This is good, because the guys see Utep as a potential risk to their plans. Utep, can at times be a dangerous squad , especially if their RB is in the zone. He will definately be the target for the Warriors defense tonight. As you all know one dimension teams never fair well versus teams that put up a lot of points. Shut him down and I feel the rest of the Miners will follow. Their offense can not go blow for blow with the Warriors or strike as fast as the Warriors can. I feel, the only way to effectively, slow this team down will be by controlling the ball and line of scrimmage. This, I definately feel that UTEP will not be able to do effectively to Laboy, Fuga, Samuseva, and Sapoiga. They should be able to shut down Uteps RB and cause them to throw , which they don't do very effectively. This spells turnovers for the D, and this will be big to covering this game. The D's chance to shine I feel will be tonight. I feel that this game will mostly be dictated by the defense, giving Chang very short fields to operate.

An operate this Offense will. Coach Jones as you all know isn't afraid to light it up and will not let his team change its game plan because they are up or down in a game. He is a firm believer in that you do what you do best and stick to it. It is when you try to change or sway away from what you do best that you become wishy washy and will lack consistency. Speaking of consistency, Coach Jones likes to pass the ball. He has already commented on the fact that Timmy Chang has not had enough pass attempts, and needs to be in the range of high 60's and 70's to totally dominate. Don't look to Hawaii, ball controlling this game at any time, despite a big lead. Coach Jones is going to continue to through the ball and throw the ball all game. This is a plus for us, because it gives us no let down in the scoring column. This is another reason why giving such a larger number is Ok.

Speaking of large numbers, QB Timmy Chang has put up increadible numbers and will easily, barring any career ending injury, surpass Ty Detmers all-time passing yardage, by next season. As for this season, he is up there in that category in the nation and in the WAC, but he is not the top dog. La Tech's Rattay is the top dog and this is where Coach Jones wants his protege to be. He seemingly easily passed for 500+ yards last week on the road. Can we say 600+ at home. Coach Jones is determined to take Timmy Chang to the top of the stat board, eventhough the W's dont follow. This is another benefit for us, when laying such a larger number. Passing and more passing is what your going to get. If any a team scares me when taking a big spread, is the Off of a pass happy team with the ability to strike quick and with so much weapons.

The abundance of receivers that Chang has at his dispossal is almost mind boggling. Because so many receivers are used not as decoys but as actual targets, def's seemingly get confused and also warn out. This leads to openings all across the field for Timmy Chang to send a rocket to. This yet another advantage for us , when laying a large number.

Ok, I think that this is enough analysis to covering the huge number. Bottom line is Utep cannot keep up the scoring fest that playing this team sometimes demand. Utep, basically is out matched in all positions except RB , but shut him down and the off. follows. I like my odds of this happening. Coach Jones desire to air it out for who knows how many times, and having a QB with the tools needed to handle all the arm work, not to mention his backup Wheldon who is also capable of airing it out, just loves doing just that. Attitudes are right and no one is being overlooked. Captain Chad Owens, after his two game suspension, promise to Jones that he will make sure that will not get complacent and have been tremendous in leading the team by his outstanding and unselfish play, is what is motivating this team to posses the right attitude to reach great altitudes, that they are capable of.

Finally, this is Homecoming for the Warriors, and Homecoming is a special time. Last nights prep rally, you could just feel the excitment and energy in the air. I think that the win on the road has just sparked a renewed enthusiasm in this team. The current record, you wouldn't think would show this, but it will tonight I can just feel it.

Timmy Chang, Coach Jones High flying off., the Hawaiian/Samoan connection on the D line, Homecoming, a record 1 game above 500, top players returning back to team, renewed enthusiam by the fans.

vs.

Utep

Looks to me like a set up to a romp. I like my odds here, and Jones gameplan and the teams attitude for this game, confirms what I feel is about to happen. A 3 Unit Big Win on the Warriors on Homecoming night.


Aloha everyone, GL which ever way you decide to play.



[This message was edited by Co-Captain on October 25, 2003 at 10:47 PM.]

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on October 25, 2003 at 10:48 PM.]

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on October 25, 2003 at 10:51 PM.]
 

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Co-captain : I see you have the game going OVER. Would you favor the OVER 66 for the game or the OVER 33.5 for the 1st half ? Thanks - Nick
 

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I liked your write up on the game but I read about some injuries for Hawaii...any concern?
 

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Not to worried about the Def, cause the D line is intact and that is the strength of this D. As for offense they got some injuries, but like I mentioned, their is no shortage of capable receivers at Changs disposal. He has at least 12 different recs. on rotation. Not including the RB.
 

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Whats Up Nick, to be honest I'm not so much a over/under guy. If I played it I definately go with the Over, cause sometimes high potent offenses still need time to warm up and get in the grove.
 
Co thanks for the writeup. What do you think about -17 first half? I usually love the Bows in first half's because they have so much offensive firepower and at home against an awful team like UTEP I'd expect June to come out firing with Chang...especially at homecoming. ESPECIALLY against the Miners who are 91st in scoring defense (yikes).

Thanks for the info...much appreciated.
 

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Aloha Sportsbet,

Well like I mentioned about the fact that I really don't like to play the halfs to often, because sometimes, with this offense, sometimes it takes time to get into rhythm. Coming out on fire is sometimes a good things, as long as your in control and not all emotionally wound up. This offense, needs to be in control to effectively function. But like I mentioned, for me , they need some time to get a fix on the opponent and sometimes it happens fast and sometimes it happens slow. One thing that Coach Jones does is he always sticks to his game plan. This gameplan will dictate the tempo of this game, but finding that niche sometimes takes time, because he will stick to the game plan instead of really mixing things up to create an opening. Coach Jones knows that by getting in the grove he wants the off to be in, that eventually , the opportunities and openings will present itself. Thus, you need to be in the grove in order to capitalize on them when they occur.
 
Thanks Co your opinions on the Bows are well worth the investment on them. I played the half for half of the game play...it's more a play against the Miners than on the Bows because if the D line is intact I think they will be able to load up in the box and shut down Jackson. Miners can't score with the Bows that's for sure! They played Tech tough but I think it was a look ahead like you mentioned for La Tech. So let's go Bows!

sb
 

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Co-Captain

Good luck with your selection on Hawaii laying the wood. I personally feel that this is to much points for Hawaii to cover. Hawaii, has not beaten anyone by more than 27 points this year, and UTEP have been playing extremely well their last 3 games. Also UTEP had a bye the previous week and arrived on Wed to adjust to the time differnce. I wish you the best of luck, but I have a 2 unit play on UTEP +27.5.


Aloha From the Big Isle
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Its all good Winna, at least one of us Hawaiians going win. Anyways, GL tonight and tomorrow.

I got say it though, being here on Oahu, you can just feel the energy, Chang needs a break out game and this is it.
 

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Hawaii is the most OVERRATED favorite on the board this year....easily.
 

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