Haven't posted in a while -> Thursday's pick

[bryan305]

My big bet for tonight is on Nashville.
10 units (-148)

Minnesota isn't a very good team to begin with, and now they don't have their starting goalie.

Fernandez has only won 6 of the 23 games he's played in, and has also not won any after having sat out for 2 games or more.

Nashville 19-8 at home, Minnesota 8-11 away

Both have the same record for last 10, but Minnesota is a .300 team, where nashville is around .500. To me, this says that Minnesota has been playing better than usual lately, but their record indicates they are more likely to lose this one than Nashville.

I like to bet based on who's going to lose, not who's going to win

 

[SportSavant]

welcome back sir to the wonderful world of posting your plays at the RX...

bet ur kicking yourself for not laying the 1/2 puck

best of luck...nothing like a new set of plays with a Positive...

 

[bryan305]

I never play the -0.5...I can't stand to lose on a tie.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I never play the -0.5...I can't stand to lose on a tie. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

never rule out any play my friend...value is value...a 1/2 puck is worth anywhere between 40 - 60 cents in the NHL...if you were by chance shopping books & you found a shop tonite that had the Preds -.5 +120....(just as a silly example)....well in this case the -.5 +120 is a much stronger play in the long run trust me...

 

[barman]

Humble disagreement. I've done some pretty solid math on this and have concluded the 1/2 goal costs a bit more than it's worth.

40c is normal for two teams in same tier. The only time you get the 60-70c is when there's a strong favorite, and thus less chance of a tie.

Regardless, it looks as if all action on Nashville tonite says CHING! on the bottom line.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Humble disagreement. I've done some pretty solid math on this and have concluded the 1/2 goal costs a bit more than it's worth. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

barman, in the example above with the following two odds...do you agree laying the 1/2 goal would have been the better play?

 

[VegasVic]

Personally I don’t think it’s about the math at all. All games should be played out in your handicapping and if your scenario comes up with a victory than lay the half goal. If you see the game as a potential tie, ie: a team like Minnesota who not only routinely makes it into overtime but rarely plays for a decision once they do, then lay the juice if necessary and take the insurance.

Close to 44% of all O.T. games end up with a winner and loser. If I see the game I like as a potential tie after regulation I’ll consider the team’s chances against each other in a four on four game. Endurance, speed, passing skills, goaltending, did they play on two consecutive nights, etc. all figure into the math I use.

I think too much emphasis is placed on numbers and not hardly enough on motivational angles and all the intangibles that comprise what sport is all about. Like heart…it’s easy to calculate the size of the dog in the fight but very hard to create a stat on the size of the fight in the dog.

 

[bryan305]

In this case, I also didn't like the -0.5 because the goalie for Minnesota was 6-9-8, so I felt there'd be a good chance of a tie if it wasn't a blow out

 

[SportSavant]

good discussion guys....

vic I understand your reasoning, you seem to have a very good understanding of the game...

mathematics aswell as handicapping are definately both part of my capping...I dont know if you read my plays for the last two days, they were for the most part probability bets or 'value' plays in terms of the line...in both cases I was getting the dog + .5 + juice...figred 50% or slightly greater chance of tie or victory...

 

[VegasVic]

Of course I read them Savant. And again props to you on both plays . Both had sound mathematical angles and consequently value.
Personally I couldn’t see how the Chicago/Carolina game would play out so I passed. To me it was so hard to figure out what team would show up here under the circumstances of recent trades, playing out the season, showcasing Irbe, etc but if you were to play it you had the best way of doing so and it didn’t fail you.

The Ottawa/Philly game was a different animal. To me the Senators looked to be the solid choice despite their semi-erratic play of late. Playing at home in a paramount game regarding the # 1 spot in the standings I “saw” their game unfold in my mind the day before and could understand no way that they wouldn’t abuse Burke as if he had a giant X across his chest. After all in the last two weeks plus who have the Flyers beaten? With the injuries to both teams however this game had it’s questions. Although I still believe that injuries to Roenick and Primeau are devastating to this team and they simply don’t play the same without them.

With all this being said I still chose not to play this game but if I had I would have lost and taken the minus half goal. In my mind even if Ottawa didn’t beat Philly soundly in regulation, (which I would be banking on), they would go all out and have a high chance of winning it in OT. I didn’t see the whole game as I was more concerned with my backing the Islanders against the Rangers and the Canadian/Bruin game. (talk about seeing things through a fog when I tried to “see” those games!) But from what I did see your game was more than worth the price of admission and isn’t that what this whole endeavor is about? Just enjoy the games, watch some exciting hockey, hopefully win a couple dollars and if not figure out what went wrong and learn from it.

I love this game!