Well not this year, but in the past 3 years I have changed alot. SOme of it was from experiences on this site as well. LIke most of you guys, I started betting seriously in college. At that time was a actually a b***kie as well. I learned one thing, the public TAKES FAVORITES.
And so was I about 15 years ago.
What I used to do, is check the football lines in the newspaper on lets say Thursday before the Saturday college football games(no such thing as a Thursday game back then.)
I will ALWAYS look at the teams on the left, favorites, and out of hte 40 games or so, usually end up picking my best 5 favorites or so.
Well that doesnt work out that bad at all, but the problem lies when you get to a situation where you have limited games and are taking favorites!'
So NOW I only look for hte BEST underdogs to bet on any given Sunday or Saturday and maybe throw in a few favorites as well, BUT NEVER a favorite of more than about 5 points or so.
For instance the only favorite that I took yesterday were the Broncos and i even bought a 1/2 point for that game in my parlay. Didnt need hte 1/2, but i did need the 1/2 on the other game in the parlay which was San Fran.
MY conclusion from the years of betting football and basketball is this. Just take underdogs!!! In basketball, go ahead and take the underdog at the moneyline instead of the spread if the line is below +4 or so, especially when the dog is at home!
Can someone check out the stats somewhere and see if you can come up with this info for me? Everyone is always talking about hitting 57-60% for the year and all. Well that isnt that tough if you do this I think, but i need some numbers from last year to back me up.
Now i only take about 5-6 games on any given Sunday, but lets use the stats this way. Lets say that you were to bet on the underdog IN ALL games where the dog was getting at least 3 points! ANd it would be nice to include in the stats that we would of course buy the half on 3 and 7, but that will be too tough I think.
But I do believe that if you took ALL underdogs from last year of +3 or higher, then CERTAINLY you would have hit lcose to 57%. Now try taking ALL DOGS over about 5 points and the NUMBER must about 60% or a little higher.
Can someone check this out because I KNOW that if you took all dogs in basketball of 7 points or higher, then you are making money. But in basketball, I usually play the moneylines as well since weird shit happens in the NBA