Believe me I have known Ironlock for quite some time and he speaks from experiece and wisdom...
I believe him!
What someone else ponted out so astutely is is HOW DO the LOCALS deal with the dreaded 2.5's in Foots that move to 3 and sometimes 3 minus .25 before ever getting to 3 1/2 ??
I remember one local reading me a PLUS 3 1/2 last year, when game was at 3 minus 20 and that game landed on 3.
I took the 3 1/2...
That was the last bet he took from me...
They don't go to 3 minus 20, so it has to drive them nuts...
I guess they try and read their players?
THE SHRINK
I believe him!
What someone else ponted out so astutely is is HOW DO the LOCALS deal with the dreaded 2.5's in Foots that move to 3 and sometimes 3 minus .25 before ever getting to 3 1/2 ??
I remember one local reading me a PLUS 3 1/2 last year, when game was at 3 minus 20 and that game landed on 3.
I took the 3 1/2...
That was the last bet he took from me...
They don't go to 3 minus 20, so it has to drive them nuts...
I guess they try and read their players?
THE SHRINK
Many local books that take decent limits use Don Best so they are aware of current lines. Since many just write tickets then dealing everything 11-10 is easier for grading. Some to avoid 3 and weight just don't allow buys off of 3 and ride out games only moving off for a hit or two after the money gets heavy.
Wilhelm - You are right that the clerk controls the call to limit getting hit more than once but every office had it's weaker links so the hits would occur. Ron's DR office was raided in Aug.'93 a week before the NFL start and after a traveling roadshow through the states ending with a Santa Monica bust Mar'94 wound up in Venezuela in Apr.'94 with Monte before heading to Costa Rica in '95 as Caribbean.
Wilhelm - You are right that the clerk controls the call to limit getting hit more than once but every office had it's weaker links so the hits would occur. Ron's DR office was raided in Aug.'93 a week before the NFL start and after a traveling roadshow through the states ending with a Santa Monica bust Mar'94 wound up in Venezuela in Apr.'94 with Monte before heading to Costa Rica in '95 as Caribbean.
One of the problems locals have in trying to deal added juice lines, say -3 -125 is that their players don't understand it and don't want to hear those type of lines. A lot of locals have 'older' players that they have been dealing with for years. Also, most locals shade the faves and justifialbly so, especially in the NFL. I guess you could say some locals 'profile' their customers but without using a computer to do it. Anyone that has worked with the same customers for a couple of years can almost write the player's tickets for them. Players that get into betting patterns or hate certain teams are easy to shade.... With the crackdown on moving money I don't think locals are going away anytime soon contrary to what some people here believe. But on another note I do believe the hold % for locals has dropped over the last couple of years. There is so much more 'game' info out there than there used to be. USAToday is a prime example of this and also the TV shows dispense a lot more info than they used to. The pregame shows last two hours and they talk about injuries and such. Booking has got to less profitable for the locals today than it was 10 years ago but I would assume it's still a moneymaker.
Good topic. But it is a give and take scenario.
On one hand you have more info, but in terms of betting, Info, stats, numbers, are way overrated. The more people think they know, the less they actually do know.
Because when they reach a break point, people think they know more than everyone else, then they either start looking for "sucker" lines, or looking for lines that do not make sense, and wondering why. If they know a guy was out drinking all night and partying they might assume he will have a bad game. So they bet against his team. But what if the guy always does it, and he is used to it, and they do not know that? Ignorance is sometimes bliss.
Goes with stats too. If they look up and see that a certain team is 1-15 against another team in a certan situation, they might blindly play against the losing team. Not taking anythig else into consideration. And it is compounded if they look deeper and see other thingsthat point to the better team winning. Then they think they have some bit of knowledge or have found something that no one else knows. Truest me anything you find on the net is known by a million or more other people. And Most books know it too. So thinking there is value" in the knowledge is folly in most cases.
If anything it has probaby been a windfall for the bookie. More and more clients, equals more and more losers plain and simple. Some guys might win here and there, but just enough to make them think they can win or at least keep even.
All gambling for the most part is a huge cycle for a vast majority of people. Even poker. Guys win and win and win, but what you do not see is the losing ad losing and losing. I see guys daily at the pokerroom. One day they might make a grand or two. Others they might drop a grand or two or more. Even me. I play daily. I win and I lose. If you play with the same guys over and over, and are of equal skill eventually you end up just passing the money around the table.
And depending on how they do the drops the winners usually get the worst of it over the losers. In most case where I play they have a $7/hr drop rather than a rake from each pot. But it is an unwritten rule that a certain potsize winner, generally $250 or more pays thwe drop for the table. So if there are 10 guys there, this guy just "lost" more than 25% of his pot, on a pot that is exactly 250. We do adjsut under certain circumstances, but pretyy hard fast rule And in the more basic rake system, the winner loses as well, since he won, and the money is taken from the pot.
Basically more gamblers is better for anyone taking bets period. So the internet has created miliions if not 10s of milions of gambler in just the past couple years. Maybe not created wholeheartedly, but certainly eased the trasnsition.
On one hand you have more info, but in terms of betting, Info, stats, numbers, are way overrated. The more people think they know, the less they actually do know.
Because when they reach a break point, people think they know more than everyone else, then they either start looking for "sucker" lines, or looking for lines that do not make sense, and wondering why. If they know a guy was out drinking all night and partying they might assume he will have a bad game. So they bet against his team. But what if the guy always does it, and he is used to it, and they do not know that? Ignorance is sometimes bliss.
Goes with stats too. If they look up and see that a certain team is 1-15 against another team in a certan situation, they might blindly play against the losing team. Not taking anythig else into consideration. And it is compounded if they look deeper and see other thingsthat point to the better team winning. Then they think they have some bit of knowledge or have found something that no one else knows. Truest me anything you find on the net is known by a million or more other people. And Most books know it too. So thinking there is value" in the knowledge is folly in most cases.
If anything it has probaby been a windfall for the bookie. More and more clients, equals more and more losers plain and simple. Some guys might win here and there, but just enough to make them think they can win or at least keep even.
All gambling for the most part is a huge cycle for a vast majority of people. Even poker. Guys win and win and win, but what you do not see is the losing ad losing and losing. I see guys daily at the pokerroom. One day they might make a grand or two. Others they might drop a grand or two or more. Even me. I play daily. I win and I lose. If you play with the same guys over and over, and are of equal skill eventually you end up just passing the money around the table.
And depending on how they do the drops the winners usually get the worst of it over the losers. In most case where I play they have a $7/hr drop rather than a rake from each pot. But it is an unwritten rule that a certain potsize winner, generally $250 or more pays thwe drop for the table. So if there are 10 guys there, this guy just "lost" more than 25% of his pot, on a pot that is exactly 250. We do adjsut under certain circumstances, but pretyy hard fast rule And in the more basic rake system, the winner loses as well, since he won, and the money is taken from the pot.
Basically more gamblers is better for anyone taking bets period. So the internet has created miliions if not 10s of milions of gambler in just the past couple years. Maybe not created wholeheartedly, but certainly eased the trasnsition.
Aquatic said:
Once again the point is being missed. It doesn't matter if a local is using Don Best in many circumstances. If they have players that are laying off action they have taken from other players (and all big locals do handle this type of action), they cannot keep moving the line or the layoff action will go elsewhere. If they decide to not move lines, they will get burned by players aware of line moves who will either middle games or play the better line elsewhere.
Also, SHRINK since many of us would play that +3.5, would that not cut into margins? Also, since that was the last play he took from you, his business was affected. Any and all large local operations have been affected by the internet gambling.
Since anyone with any kind of bankroll can have unlimited outlets these days, how in the hell is any local going to notice a pattern? The only way they would do so is if they move lines and you bet into them. Their alternative is to either stop moving lines or cut off a player.
Both will do what the original question in the thread asked.....will reduce margins and/or put them out of business.
Both will do what the original question in the thread asked.....will reduce margins and/or put them out of business.
Iron,
Since they are raking in the dough, I would like contact information for some of these locals sitting on basketball lines for 1-3 hours.
I am wanting and willing to demonstrate that their margins have been reduced by the internet.
Shrink,
Unless you were living in LV or had a direct line there, would you have known the line was 3 -120 without the internet?
May everyone enjoy this fine day.
:drink:
Since they are raking in the dough, I would like contact information for some of these locals sitting on basketball lines for 1-3 hours.
I am wanting and willing to demonstrate that their margins have been reduced by the internet.
Shrink,
Unless you were living in LV or had a direct line there, would you have known the line was 3 -120 without the internet?
May everyone enjoy this fine day.
:drink:
Dawoofdaddy
You don't need the internet or live in LV to know if a line isn't 3 -120 years ago or today. I had outs in different states in the 80s so I wasn't getting inflated on local events.
Different outs with a rundown over the phone would do that. The best thing the internet has brought is that the entire menu is available without a clerk having to run it down to every caller and then hear 30 minutes later when a bettor comes back to bet that the line has changed here's another rundown. Better for books since the phone bills even 5 years ago were the biggest drawback to having an off shore business. $20-50K a month at big outs.
You don't need the internet or live in LV to know if a line isn't 3 -120 years ago or today. I had outs in different states in the 80s so I wasn't getting inflated on local events.
Different outs with a rundown over the phone would do that. The best thing the internet has brought is that the entire menu is available without a clerk having to run it down to every caller and then hear 30 minutes later when a bettor comes back to bet that the line has changed here's another rundown. Better for books since the phone bills even 5 years ago were the biggest drawback to having an off shore business. $20-50K a month at big outs.
Any good local out remains in your rotation but now you also have random off shore outs. The biggest reduction in handle is that there are far fewer local books now and really a local is now just an agent for an off shore out so the player is basically doing the same thing of calling in bets and meeting up during the week to square up. So in this case many locals that are now agents have seen their handle increase. New locals jsut become agents or put in bettors at a head count store.
