I was wondering if anyone has done well over the years. It is a great and exciting day, but from a handicapping angle, it seems very difficult. With so many great horses, I like to try to find a vulnerable favorite and bet against. It is amazing how many horses pay over $20.00 that have a great shot to win. Hopefully I will be able to pull one out tomorrow. anyone with a good breeder's cup handicapping angle, please comment.
Alki, its not really an angle per sei but with all of the elite horses here now value becomes even more important. Frankel has 3 of the 8 post time favorites but is only 2 for 49 with Breeders Cup starters. I am willing to skip a low priced fav in hopes of finding a horse that would otherwise be odds on in another Grade 1 race but is about 6 or 7-1 on Saturday.
HTRC
HTRC
I agree with El jefe and hate. i think we are all on the same page. I will look at a few races tomorrow where the fav. is 6/5 and i think he can easily be beaten. I just hope i pick the right horse, and the right race. I know one thing for sure, many favorites WILL lose tomorrow. the problem for me is finding the right horse that will bring home the $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$! Good luck to all. and remember, STAY AWAY FROM CHALK!
have had reasonable success over the years ........value easy to find on BC card.....just gotta dig a little i wouldnt bet ANY horse lower than 6-1 and you shld be able to find a horse you like at that price or higher .........early genuine contenders w/ a real shot to win at a price , PEACE RULES 8-1 (turf mile)VALID VIDEO 10-1 (sprint)MEGAHERTZ 10-1 (filly/mare turf)TIGER HUNT 6-1 (juvenile) JOHAR 10-1 (turf)HOLD THAT TIGER 10-1 (classic).......go baby go !!!!!!!!
but thats horse racing.:
Juvinile Fillies - Halfbridled - Victory USA.
Distaff - Got Koko - Elloluv
Sprint - Posse - Alderabran
Fillies and Mares Turf - Heat Haze - Musical Chimes
Mile - Special Ring - Designed for Luck
Juvinile - Cuvee -Capitano
Turf - Bright Sky - Storming Home
Classic - TenMostWanted - Medaglia d' Oro
$50 Exacta boxes for action every race.
wil.
Juvinile Fillies - Halfbridled - Victory USA.
Distaff - Got Koko - Elloluv
Sprint - Posse - Alderabran
Fillies and Mares Turf - Heat Haze - Musical Chimes
Mile - Special Ring - Designed for Luck
Juvinile - Cuvee -Capitano
Turf - Bright Sky - Storming Home
Classic - TenMostWanted - Medaglia d' Oro
$50 Exacta boxes for action every race.
wil.
I've made money the past four Breeders' Cup (after getting shut out in 1997 and 1998)...in 1999, 2000 and 2001, I only had one winner each of those days but they more than made up for the losers, so I agree with what BuzzRavanaugh wrore above. Last year, I gave out Domedriver ($54 winner of the Mile) and Volponi ($89 winner of the Classic) at the Breeders' Cup seminar at Paris Las Vegas and on the webcast at www.drf.com.
I just got back from tonight's seminar at Bally's Las Vegas (still archived at drf.com...but it's 2 hours long...not sure anyone will have the time to listen to it this morning...also includes Andy Beyer, Mike Watchmaker, Brad Free, Ralph Siraco, Richard Eng and a couple of jockeys).
The beauty of betting the Breeders' Cup is that you can find quality horses that are live longshots. What I mean by that is that on a typical racing day, you can bet horses at 30-1, 40-1, 50-1, etc., but a lot of times those are horses that have a bunch of 10-place finishes, or first-time maidens, or they're coming from minor tracks and going against much better competition, etc. On Breeders' Cup Day, you see a lot of horses that get overlooked by the general public but that are fully capable of running a winning race. Whereas on a typical day you might look at the PPs after a race and say "I still wouldn't bet on that horse," on BC Day you can look at the winner's PPs and see that there was a hint that its performance was possible.
One disclaimer before listing my picks...I'm not saying these are the most likely winners of the races. These are the horses that I see as offering the best betting value...horses that should outrun their odds. Because I'm playing price horses, there's a very distinct possibility I'll go 0-fer-BC Day, but that's the risk you take when trying to beat the favorites.
Distaff: Take Charge Lady (with everyone concerned about Sightseek, TCL could steal it on the lead)
Juvenile Fillies: Victory U.S.A. (best of the Baffert/Lukas entries, and I also recommended boxing those trainers' horses in exactas and tris)
Mile: Six Perfections (will be running late -- I also have part of a future bet on Perfect Soul at 100-1, so I won't be upset at all if Perfect Soul beats Six Perfections)
Sprint: Midas Eyes (a lot of the contenders are closers...Midas Eyes could steal this one for Frankel over stablemate Aldebaran)
Filly & Mare Turf: Tates Creek (horse for the course...benefits if Europeans can't handle climate...take this pick with grain of salt as I'm 0-for-4 since this race was added in 1999)
Juvenile: Chapel Royal (twice beaten as favorite in major 2-year-old stakes...getting value as people get off the bandwagon...could go gate to wire)
Turf: Balto Star (can you tell I like speed horses? if no one goes with him, he could steal it; again, especially dangerous if Europeans wilting in the heat)
Classic: Volponi (I tried my best to find better value horse since people would think I'm biased...but race really sets up for his late kick with so much speed in the field...we know he can get the distance...best value in the race)
Of course, as many people have said before, it's only "value" if you cash a ticket. Best of luck to everyone. Enjoy the races even if you don't enjoy the results!
I just got back from tonight's seminar at Bally's Las Vegas (still archived at drf.com...but it's 2 hours long...not sure anyone will have the time to listen to it this morning...also includes Andy Beyer, Mike Watchmaker, Brad Free, Ralph Siraco, Richard Eng and a couple of jockeys).
The beauty of betting the Breeders' Cup is that you can find quality horses that are live longshots. What I mean by that is that on a typical racing day, you can bet horses at 30-1, 40-1, 50-1, etc., but a lot of times those are horses that have a bunch of 10-place finishes, or first-time maidens, or they're coming from minor tracks and going against much better competition, etc. On Breeders' Cup Day, you see a lot of horses that get overlooked by the general public but that are fully capable of running a winning race. Whereas on a typical day you might look at the PPs after a race and say "I still wouldn't bet on that horse," on BC Day you can look at the winner's PPs and see that there was a hint that its performance was possible.
One disclaimer before listing my picks...I'm not saying these are the most likely winners of the races. These are the horses that I see as offering the best betting value...horses that should outrun their odds. Because I'm playing price horses, there's a very distinct possibility I'll go 0-fer-BC Day, but that's the risk you take when trying to beat the favorites.
Distaff: Take Charge Lady (with everyone concerned about Sightseek, TCL could steal it on the lead)
Juvenile Fillies: Victory U.S.A. (best of the Baffert/Lukas entries, and I also recommended boxing those trainers' horses in exactas and tris)
Mile: Six Perfections (will be running late -- I also have part of a future bet on Perfect Soul at 100-1, so I won't be upset at all if Perfect Soul beats Six Perfections)
Sprint: Midas Eyes (a lot of the contenders are closers...Midas Eyes could steal this one for Frankel over stablemate Aldebaran)
Filly & Mare Turf: Tates Creek (horse for the course...benefits if Europeans can't handle climate...take this pick with grain of salt as I'm 0-for-4 since this race was added in 1999)
Juvenile: Chapel Royal (twice beaten as favorite in major 2-year-old stakes...getting value as people get off the bandwagon...could go gate to wire)
Turf: Balto Star (can you tell I like speed horses? if no one goes with him, he could steal it; again, especially dangerous if Europeans wilting in the heat)
Classic: Volponi (I tried my best to find better value horse since people would think I'm biased...but race really sets up for his late kick with so much speed in the field...we know he can get the distance...best value in the race)
Of course, as many people have said before, it's only "value" if you cash a ticket. Best of luck to everyone. Enjoy the races even if you don't enjoy the results!
Im looking at these today. All WPS and some multihorse Ex's.
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Take Charge Lady
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Hollywood Story
Breeders' Cup Mile
Touch of the Blues
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Aldebaran
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Musical Chimes
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Minister Eric
Breeders' Cup Turf
Storming Home
Breeders' Cup Classic
Congaree
Enjoy the day Everyone
Breeders' Cup Distaff
Take Charge Lady
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
Hollywood Story
Breeders' Cup Mile
Touch of the Blues
Breeders' Cup Sprint
Aldebaran
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Musical Chimes
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Minister Eric
Breeders' Cup Turf
Storming Home
Breeders' Cup Classic
Congaree
Enjoy the day Everyone
Sticking with Peace Rules in the mile.This horse's best distance should be a mile.Also breeding indicates it should like the turf.Don't like morning line of 6-1,but expect it to be closer to 10-1.Also staying with Dynever in classic.Should like the pace at a price.Good luck everyone.Gonna watch me some ponies.
