I usually start this thread every year. It's basically just to start conversations on who you think will be the games that appear like easy wins on paper, but may be much tougher than expected. I'm talking about a close cover or an outright upset. We've come up with some good games in the past that turned out to be true. I know in 2007 The OSU/Troy game was at the top of many posters lists. And Troy ended up getting the upset. Last year was an extra special year for HUGE upsets. Wyoming over Tennessee, Toledo over Michigan, Syracuse over Notre Dame and Arkansas St. over Texas A&M come to mind first. But I'm sure there were a few more. We usually get at least 4 or 5 real shockers every season. Here are my top 10 in no particular order:
1.Pittburgh at Buffalo (Sept 12) How much you like or hate this game depends on your opinion of Wannstadt. But he's usually good for one surprise win and one embarassing upset each year. And this looks like a good spot. With Buffalo coming off the road in what will probably be a first game loss to UTEP, they could be getting more points than they should here. Plus Pitt doesn't find themselves as favorites on the road very often. And when they have been put in that position, they have only covered one game in the last two years. So Buffalo should be a live dog here.
2.Colorado at Toledo (Sept 11) If the Buffs aren't careful this could turn into a real 9-11 for them. You've got a first year coach for Toledo making his home debut in the Glass Bowl. Which can be a tough place to play in a rowdy night game. I can see Toledo pulling out all of the stops here with probably a few things on offense that Hawkins hasn't seen in the game films.. I hope the Buffs revamped defense is up for the task. Scratch that remark. If I'm betting on Toledo I'll be a "Rocket Man" for that game.
3.North Dakota St. at Iowa State (Sept 3) It is almost a given that with all of the coaching changes that ISU has had for the few seasons, they are going to struggle early. Chizik lost to Kent St. at home in his first game two years ago. He did better last year in his first game in beating this same South Dakota team 44-17. But SD is a year older and a year wiser. And I get the feeling there won't be any shock and awe when they come into Ames this time. Line or no line this could be a close one.
4.Central Michigan at Arizona (Sept 5) After making a bowl last season, the Cats will be expected to do it again this year. But I can see a lot of first game jitters with a new QB and WR's. All I can say is Zona better put up some points here, because QB Dan LeFevour and that high octane offense can score. Many people are picking Central Michigan to win the MAC. And a couple years ago when they had a team this good they almost upset Boston College as double digit dogs. And BC went 10-3 that season. So Zona better be prepared.
5.Mississippi St. at Middle Tennessee (Oct 17) With old Croom's team this wouldn't even be that big of an upset. MSU is breaking in a new coach this year with Mullen. Who was Urban Meyer's OC last year. But I'm not sure how much this guy really had to do with running a Meyer offense. We'll just have to see how good he is on his own. All I know is he plays Middle Tenn on the road the week before his team plays his old Florida team. So there might not be a total focus on the Blue Raiders. That would be a mistake. Middle Tenn could be pretty good this year...For a SBC team.
6.La Tech at Auburn (Sept 5) Here again we have a first year coach in Chizik against a very good up and comer in Dooley. And he would like nothing more than to knock off an SEC team on the road. Plus La Tech is coming off a bowl game, and they've got a little momentum on their side. Auburn basically has the same components on offense that they had last year where they struggled. This one could be a dogfight. I hope they give me a good line for this game.
7.Utah at San Jose (Sept 12) Utah loses some key experienced offensive personnel and then hits the road for the first time against a very clever defensive type of head coach in Tomey. If San Jose has improved at all on offense this season, they could be very dangerous in this spot.
8.Central Michigan at Boston College (Oct 31) This is a sandwich spot for BC. They'll just be coming off a big game against longtime Catholic school rival Notre Dame, and then face Virigina on the road the next week. I just get that feeling that what probably will be the best or second best team in the MAC is going to knock off one of the big boys this season. And whether it be Zona or BC, CM has two good spots to do it in.
9.UCONN at Ohio (Sept 5) Ohio is another team who is predicted to make some noise in the MAC. They have just enough returning offensive starters to make them dangerous here. And UCONN don't have QB Tyler Lorenzen and most of their receivers anymore. This could be tough first game for UCONN.
10.Kansas at UTEP (Sept 12) UTEP looks like they will compete with Houston and Southern Miss for the CUSA title this year. Price is also on the hotseat. So bagging some big game like the Jayhawks would help solidfy at least another year for him. Otherwise it's back to retirement and tittie bars. It should be a high scoring game. And if UTEP sticks around for long in that game, El Paso can become a hot and tough place to play.
1.Pittburgh at Buffalo (Sept 12) How much you like or hate this game depends on your opinion of Wannstadt. But he's usually good for one surprise win and one embarassing upset each year. And this looks like a good spot. With Buffalo coming off the road in what will probably be a first game loss to UTEP, they could be getting more points than they should here. Plus Pitt doesn't find themselves as favorites on the road very often. And when they have been put in that position, they have only covered one game in the last two years. So Buffalo should be a live dog here.
2.Colorado at Toledo (Sept 11) If the Buffs aren't careful this could turn into a real 9-11 for them. You've got a first year coach for Toledo making his home debut in the Glass Bowl. Which can be a tough place to play in a rowdy night game. I can see Toledo pulling out all of the stops here with probably a few things on offense that Hawkins hasn't seen in the game films.. I hope the Buffs revamped defense is up for the task. Scratch that remark. If I'm betting on Toledo I'll be a "Rocket Man" for that game.
3.North Dakota St. at Iowa State (Sept 3) It is almost a given that with all of the coaching changes that ISU has had for the few seasons, they are going to struggle early. Chizik lost to Kent St. at home in his first game two years ago. He did better last year in his first game in beating this same South Dakota team 44-17. But SD is a year older and a year wiser. And I get the feeling there won't be any shock and awe when they come into Ames this time. Line or no line this could be a close one.
4.Central Michigan at Arizona (Sept 5) After making a bowl last season, the Cats will be expected to do it again this year. But I can see a lot of first game jitters with a new QB and WR's. All I can say is Zona better put up some points here, because QB Dan LeFevour and that high octane offense can score. Many people are picking Central Michigan to win the MAC. And a couple years ago when they had a team this good they almost upset Boston College as double digit dogs. And BC went 10-3 that season. So Zona better be prepared.
5.Mississippi St. at Middle Tennessee (Oct 17) With old Croom's team this wouldn't even be that big of an upset. MSU is breaking in a new coach this year with Mullen. Who was Urban Meyer's OC last year. But I'm not sure how much this guy really had to do with running a Meyer offense. We'll just have to see how good he is on his own. All I know is he plays Middle Tenn on the road the week before his team plays his old Florida team. So there might not be a total focus on the Blue Raiders. That would be a mistake. Middle Tenn could be pretty good this year...For a SBC team.
6.La Tech at Auburn (Sept 5) Here again we have a first year coach in Chizik against a very good up and comer in Dooley. And he would like nothing more than to knock off an SEC team on the road. Plus La Tech is coming off a bowl game, and they've got a little momentum on their side. Auburn basically has the same components on offense that they had last year where they struggled. This one could be a dogfight. I hope they give me a good line for this game.
7.Utah at San Jose (Sept 12) Utah loses some key experienced offensive personnel and then hits the road for the first time against a very clever defensive type of head coach in Tomey. If San Jose has improved at all on offense this season, they could be very dangerous in this spot.
8.Central Michigan at Boston College (Oct 31) This is a sandwich spot for BC. They'll just be coming off a big game against longtime Catholic school rival Notre Dame, and then face Virigina on the road the next week. I just get that feeling that what probably will be the best or second best team in the MAC is going to knock off one of the big boys this season. And whether it be Zona or BC, CM has two good spots to do it in.
9.UCONN at Ohio (Sept 5) Ohio is another team who is predicted to make some noise in the MAC. They have just enough returning offensive starters to make them dangerous here. And UCONN don't have QB Tyler Lorenzen and most of their receivers anymore. This could be tough first game for UCONN.
10.Kansas at UTEP (Sept 12) UTEP looks like they will compete with Houston and Southern Miss for the CUSA title this year. Price is also on the hotseat. So bagging some big game like the Jayhawks would help solidfy at least another year for him. Otherwise it's back to retirement and tittie bars. It should be a high scoring game. And if UTEP sticks around for long in that game, El Paso can become a hot and tough place to play.
