Hank Stram Super Bowl System Play

[LEYKIS101]

I found it and copied this - not sure if ANY figures are correct.

Super Bowl System (32-3-2 ATS)

Here is a system that some have used for the last few years. It did lose last year with Oakland. The Oakland loss was the only loss in the last 19 Super Bowls and is 32-3-2 ATS. Hank Stram had a system that was somewhat like this but this one has been changed to add numbers that can be researched.

Use Regular season stats only. Only 1 team should get points from each category. Stats can be found at different websites. Obviously, New England will get 10 points for winning a Super Bowl in the last 3 years and get another 8 since Carolina has not been in a Super Bowl. (It looks as if the Pats will be a big favorite in this system)


Points
10 If team has won the Super Bowl in last 3 years
8 if an opponent is going to their first Super Bowl
8 to the team that allows fewer defensive rushes
7 give to team with most offensive rushes
7 award the team with best overall record (straight up)
5 to the team with the lowest def. rush average per carry
4 give 4 pts. to the team with the better ATS record
4 to the team that has the superior NET penalty yards
4 to the team with the best NET kick-punt TD returns
3.5 team with the best yds per pass attempt
3.5 to the team that gave up the fewest points
3.5 allowed the fewest rushing TD's
3 award 3 points to the team with the most sacks
2.5 team with the fewest offensive pass attempts
2 team with the best NET punts (total) on the season
1.5 add to the team with the best avg. per off. rush
1 add 1 to the team with the best completion percent

System results:

Here are the system results for the last 19 Super Bowls showing the point totals, spread, difference and actual score.

19 SF 57.5 (-3.5) over Miami 12 42 WIN 38-16
20 Chi 45.5 (-10) over NE 6 29.5 WIN 46-10
21 NYG 54.5 (-9.5) over Den 13 32 WIN 39-20
22 Wash 43.5 (+3) over Den 12 34.5 WIN 42-10
23 Cin 28 (+7) over SF 27 8 WIN 16-20
24 SF 40.5 (-12.5) over Den 20 8.5 WIN 55-10
25 NYG 33.5 (+7) over Buff 24 16.5 WIN 20-19
26 Wash 53 (-7) over Buff 6.5 39.5 WIN 37-24
27 Dal 35.5 (-6.5) over Buff 21 8 WIN 52-17
28 Dal 36 (-10) over Buff 19 7 WIN 30-13
29 SF 53 (-18) over SD 14.5 20.5 WIN 49-26
30 Pitt 29.5 (+13.5) over Dal 40 3 WIN 17-27
31 GB 50.5 (-14) over NE 9 27.5 PUSH 35-21
32 Den 35.5 (+11.5) over GB 34 13 WIN 31-24
33 Den 37.5 (-7) over Atl 26 4.5 WIN 34-19
34 STL 51 (-7) over Tn 9.5 34.5 Push 23-16
35 Bal 38 (-3) over NYG 29.5 5.5 WIN 34-7
36 NE 28.5 (+14) over STL 41 1.5 WIN 20-17
37 Oak 37 (-4) over TB 20.5 16.5 Loss 21-48


the figures for this superbowl are:

n.e.57
car.20.5

good luck

 

[nyc76]

Sorry for the question but Im trying to figure out what the numbers mean like this:

35 Bal 38 (-3) over NYG 29.5 5.5 WIN 34-7

You said it showed the point totals, spread, difference and actual score.

So in this case the Point total would be 38, the spred (-3) the actual score is 34-7 so what is that "29.5" and 5.5 number mean?

 

[cfbguy]

so based on strams formula new england wins by 37?? does this factor in jake delhomme and the panther defense dying in the plane trip to houston?lol. ive put great stock in his formula but i see this game decided by 7 pts or less.the dog in carolina games this season is 15-4 now.new england is 1-5 ats as a rd fav of between 3.5 and 9.5 pts.~6killer

 

[LEYKIS101]

NYC,

Like I said, I just copied n pasted. My guess in your example is: The 29.5 is the difference between the teams #'s minus or plus the spread. Here it would be 38 -3 = 35 minus the Giants 29.5 = 5.5.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Everyone can see the Raiders were picked by the system to win by quite a bit last year and lost. It's just a system, but if this is the correct system the numbers are very good ATS.

 

[nyc76]

So I guess for this SB's figures you have NE at 57 and Carolina at 20.5. So I guess you subtract the point spread 7 from NE's total to get 50.5 and the difference is 29.5. So I guess the bigger this number the bigger favorite they are?

 

[LEYKIS101]

Correct NYC, thats what I would guess.

 

This is the same as Phil Steele's Super Bowl System. The winner is projected as the team with the most points under the system, but the points DO NOT translate into actual points scored. In other words, using this system - I have NE as 49.5 and Carolina as 24.5, a 25 point diff. This means that NE will cover-period. NOt that they will cover by 25. If NE had had 1 more point than Carolina, the system says that they will cover the 7.

Also - "Best net punts total" is number of punts - with no relationship to yardage.

-Zip

 

[Bobby_Trendy]

On its face, this looks like a bad case of data mining.

Why doesn't a "sytem" like this have some 'capping power for every football game. Is the Superbowl really such an entirely different game altogher? It's still football.

I think it's probably easy to go back over a 40 game subset and come up with some system like this that's great ATS... but that really has no predictive value for the future.

 

[PatPatriot]

Lykis 101....I Love You!

 

[LEYKIS101]

Why thanks Patriot. Just here to pass along some info to all. This system as well as 2-3 others I saw all like the Pats, now I do too.

 

[PatPatriot]

Lyk...I wonder what the record is when the teams have two week break using this system??
Also I noticed the larger the pt. rating the better.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Pat, I have no clue regarding the 2 week vs. 1 week break records. I believe it used to be 2 weeks up until a few years ago, but not certain. I have no idea how or when the NFL decides it either, it almost seems to alternate anymore. Must be something with the tv schedules or something.

Yes, I think the larger the difference usually produces the bigger blowout, but you never know I guess. Go Pats.

 

[RobFunk]

The thing I want to know is how long has he actually been using this system? I mean if he came up with this 20 years ago, its impressive. if hes only been doing it for 3 years, than yea I'd have to agree with Bobby Trendy.

 

[cains]

where do you find the stats to give out the points??

Ive been looking at nfl.com..
Cant seem to find it all...

/ cains

 

Cains - all of the data is at NFL.com. You need to go to team statistics and it will give it to you.

Basically Carolina has 24.5 points and NE has 49.5 points.

-Zip