[h=1]Handicapping the SEC title race[/h][h=3]Georgia's path looks favorable in East, but Alabama has a gauntlet in West[/h]
By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider
There are so many contenders in the SEC, it looks more and more likely that the conference could get left out of the College Football Playoff. Outrageous, perhaps, but not unfathomable.
Through the first two weeks of the season, we don't know enough about the selection committee's priorities or whether the performances on the books so far are significant indicators of how the rest of the season will play out. But we project that half of the SEC teams could position themselves to be part of the playoff mix in December ---seven teams are currently ranked among the top 15 in our opponent-adjusted drive efficiency ratings.
But there is a lot of football left to be played, including 13 conference games among those seven contenders. And escaping the regular season with fewer than two losses will be a big challenge for pretty much everyone in the SEC.
Our updated FEI projections indicate that there is only a 29 percent chance that any team will emerge from the SEC with a perfect regular-season record, and there is a 14 percent chance that none will finish better than 10-2. Combine that with what would likely be a relative toss-up in the SEC championship game, and there is a good chance that the eventual conference winner will have at least two marks in the loss column.
The top SEC teams likely will have strong schedule-strength arguments when the committee begins its deliberations, but the top contenders in the other Power 5 conferences (including the Big Ten) are more likely to have better records. Below, we run down the obstacles that lie ahead in the SEC pecking order for best overall regular-season record.
Most likely record: 10-2 (34 percent)
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The Bulldogs have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the SEC contenders, though their most immediate challenge is Saturday at South Carolina (No. 18 in the FEI ratings) -- one of only two games remaining on their schedule in which they project to have less than a 70 percent likelihood of winning. A win over the Gamecocks would push Georgia's most likely win total to 11 games, and a big victory would make it the clear front-runner in the SEC East. Due in large part to Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley's 100-yard kickoff return against Clemson in Week 1, Georgia's special teams efficiency ranks No. 1 nationally.
Most likely record: 10-2 (34 percent)
In our preseason projections, the Crimson Tide had at least a 55 percent win likelihood in every game, and at least a 70 percent win likelihood in 11 games. Alabama still ranks as the top team in the SEC, but the surge of other contenders, especially those in the West, has lowered our expectations for Bama's overall record. The Tide now project to go 2-2 against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn -- one loss more in those games than we anticipated before the season kicked off. Of the SEC contenders listed here, Alabama is the only one off to a below-average start in managing field position, an area it excelled in a year ago (No. 4 nationally).
Most likely record: 10-2 (33 percent)
Missouri's unexpected run to the SEC championship game last season could be matched if the Tigers can successfully navigate their trickiest three-game stretch. From Sept. 27 to Oct. 18, Missouri plays at South Carolina, home against Georgia and at Florida. The latest projections give the Tigers a 64 percent chance of going 2-1 in that stretch, which would certainly keep them in the mix for a division title. After that gauntlet, Missouri projects to have at least an 85 percent win likelihood in four of its final five SEC games.
Most likely record: 10-2 (32 percent)
LSU most certainly can contend for the SEC West crown, especially because the Tigers will face projected division leader Alabama in Death Valley. LSU currently has a projected win likelihood above 50 percent in all of its remaining games, including the showdown with the Tide (55 percent), but the Tigers are still more than five times more likely to lose twice than they are to run the table. Of the SEC challengers, LSU has passed the biggest nonconference test to date, and despite the Big Ten's underwhelming overall outlook, LSU's Week 1 victory over Wisconsin may end up as one of the strongest nonconference pelts on the wall of the SEC at season's end.
Most likely record: 10-2 (33 percent)
Ole Miss has been more dominant and efficient against FBS competition through the first two weeks than any of the other SEC contenders. In the Rebels' first seven offensive possessions Saturday against Vanderbilt, they earned 88 percent of available yards, crossed midfield on every possession and scored six times. They also added an interception return for a score, and rank among the nation's leaders in field position and turnover value production. Still, the SEC West gauntlet looms -- from Oct. 4 to Nov. 1, the Rebels will face each of the four other SEC West contenders, and there is a greater chance they'll go 1-3 or worse (32 percent) than they'll go 3-1 or better (29 percent) in that stretch.
Most likely record: 9-3 (31 percent)
The Aggies still have five games remaining against opponents listed in this countdown, three of them in College Station. Texas A&M's high-octane offense poses a big threat, led by quarterback Kenny Hill's scorching start (seven touchdowns, 71 percent completion rate, No. 3 in adjusted Total QBR, No. 2 in adjusted Total QBR among Power 5 QBs). But their defensive liabilities are a bigger threat to themselves and their opportunity to win the SEC West. A&M produced negative defensive efficiency ratings in nine games last season, and it had a similar result in its comfortable win over South Carolina to start the season.
Most likely record: 8-4 (28 percent)
Like Texas A&M, Auburn will face five teams on this list, but the Tigers also have two other big challenges -- a Sept. 18 road trip to Kansas State (FEI No. 25) and an Oct. 25 game at home against South Carolina (FEI No. 18). Including that game, Auburn will face five top-20 opponents in the final six weeks of the season, a stretch unmatched in FBS competition this year. Our projections were similarly cautious last season, but Auburn, of course, streaked through the end of the regular season in spectacular fashion to win the SEC West. Our projections give the Tigers less than a 1 percent chance of making a similar run through their final five SEC games this season.
By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider
There are so many contenders in the SEC, it looks more and more likely that the conference could get left out of the College Football Playoff. Outrageous, perhaps, but not unfathomable.
Through the first two weeks of the season, we don't know enough about the selection committee's priorities or whether the performances on the books so far are significant indicators of how the rest of the season will play out. But we project that half of the SEC teams could position themselves to be part of the playoff mix in December ---seven teams are currently ranked among the top 15 in our opponent-adjusted drive efficiency ratings.
But there is a lot of football left to be played, including 13 conference games among those seven contenders. And escaping the regular season with fewer than two losses will be a big challenge for pretty much everyone in the SEC.
Our updated FEI projections indicate that there is only a 29 percent chance that any team will emerge from the SEC with a perfect regular-season record, and there is a 14 percent chance that none will finish better than 10-2. Combine that with what would likely be a relative toss-up in the SEC championship game, and there is a good chance that the eventual conference winner will have at least two marks in the loss column.
The top SEC teams likely will have strong schedule-strength arguments when the committee begins its deliberations, but the top contenders in the other Power 5 conferences (including the Big Ten) are more likely to have better records. Below, we run down the obstacles that lie ahead in the SEC pecking order for best overall regular-season record.
[h=3]Georgia Bulldogs[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 42 percentMost likely record: 10-2 (34 percent)
The Bulldogs have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the SEC contenders, though their most immediate challenge is Saturday at South Carolina (No. 18 in the FEI ratings) -- one of only two games remaining on their schedule in which they project to have less than a 70 percent likelihood of winning. A win over the Gamecocks would push Georgia's most likely win total to 11 games, and a big victory would make it the clear front-runner in the SEC East. Due in large part to Heisman Trophy candidate Todd Gurley's 100-yard kickoff return against Clemson in Week 1, Georgia's special teams efficiency ranks No. 1 nationally.
[h=3]Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 30 percentMost likely record: 10-2 (34 percent)
[h=3]Missouri Tigers[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 28 percentMost likely record: 10-2 (33 percent)
[h=3]LSU Tigers[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 27 percentMost likely record: 10-2 (32 percent)
[h=3]Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 21 percentMost likely record: 10-2 (33 percent)
[h=3]Texas A&M Aggies[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 10 percentMost likely record: 9-3 (31 percent)
[h=3]Auburn Tigers[/h]Likelihood of finishing 11-1 or 12-0: 2 percentMost likely record: 8-4 (28 percent)
