Purely handicapping discussion here.
Dem
I see the Field at +336 at one of my books right now. How on earth do you pass this up? Hillary was vulnerable without the e-mail scandal and now that really seems to be blowing up. The rumors of the White House trying to push Biden in the race tell me the concerns about Hill lasting are very real. She already got crushed once as an "inevitable candidate" and there's no reason why it can't happen again. There are already many unions out there supporting Sanders and he continues to gather momentum, if an email server indictment hits, it's over. Her husband was a campaigning savant, but she has the charm of a 20-year old sofa. Anyone laying money on Hillary to win the nomination has more cents than sense.
Rep
Look, Trump is a ton of fun and I really enjoy watching the establishment parties squirm as he ratchets up his antics. He'd probably make a decent (and extremely entertaining) President, but let's get real, he's got virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Although some loved him fighting Megyn Kelly at the debate, and it hardened their resolve for him, it also really turned a lot of people off and I really don't see Trump getting much past the 25-30% support he's gotten. Getting past his bombastic style, he's got a tough time getting the other 70% to like him and ignore his support for left-wing positions in the past. This is probably his peak. At 6-1, he has to be a massive underlay. I don't think I'd give him greater than a 2% chance of actually winning (50-1).
Jeb Bush is the money king, and usually these guys have a pretty big advantage. Mitt Romney wasn't an excitable candidate, but he had the money and establishment in his corner and one-by-one he winged all challengers (Santorum, Cain, Gingrich) in the last cycle with his steady debate performances and huge financial edge. Bush has other problems though including his brother. Somehow he gives off even less energy than Romney did during the debates. There are a couple recent polls that have him really dropping off from that debate as others surged. I think Bush fatigue has set in and there's really very little excitement surrounding him. His money will keep him in it until the end though, so he has a chance. Probably 20% or so IMO, which makes his +150 a very poor wager.
Scott Walker really underwhelmed me in the debate. I thought this guy would be one of the major front runners for this nomination, but he didn't come off as much of an orator last Thursday and in the modern era, that is huge. I just feel like he's kind of getting lost in the mix here and that could be dangerous for his chances. He should do well in Iowa (possibly win), and that gives him a shot at getting him some momentum into the next rounds, but I think he'll continue to have trouble standing out in the debate with some of these other candidates. I've seen +550 on him, I think that's a bit cheap. I suppose he has a shot, but not a huge one. 10% at best, which makes him another poor bet.
There's a bunch of candidates I really don't see getting enough momentum/money to be a factor. This includes Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, John Kasich. I think Kasich might have the best chance from this bunch to get some momentum going. But all of these candidates have some flaws that leave them vulnerable to capturing enough delegates to win. I don't see any of them getting the "Big Mo" and exciting the GOP base. That is what is necessary to win. Maybe a lightning bolt strikes and one of them really takes off but I give each of these candidates about 2% chance each (10% combined) to pull off an upset.
Now, there's two candidates I think offer the best value.
#1 Marco Rubio - Good looks, youthful, solid campaigner/speaker, steady at the debates. He also has GOP establishment backing on a lot of positions. When/If Bush falters I could really see the party elites rallying around Rubio and trying to push him as the front runner. I think he offers tremendous value at +600. I think he has very good shot at winning, maybe 35-40% which makes him a solid wager at the books.
#2 Ted Cruz - Tea party darling which is worth a ton in these low-turnout primaries. He's also a Princeton debate champion. He already got a nice bump from the last debate without even standing out too much, and as the field whittles down I can see him really standing out at the debates and moving people into his corner. He's getting north of 20-1 at many of the books, I think 20% chance is not too high of an outlook. He did something VERY smart that no other GOP candidate did, and that was going out of his way to NOT ATTACK Trump. Trump has even made very positive comments about Cruz on Twitter. When Trump momentum dies, I predict a good chunk of Trump's followers moving into Cruz camp. Cruz has fought the establishment at every turn. He called the Senate Majority Leader of his own party a liar on the floor of the senate. This stuff plays big among the base. Another positive edge for Cruz is that he's raised a TON of SuperPAC money. I believe in overall money, he's 2nd only behind Bush. He's a pretty shrewd guy and I don't see him making a horrible gaffe to take him out of the race.
I think these two will be the main cogs left after Super Tuesday comes and goes. The establishment will be backing Rubio, the Tea Party will be behind Cruz and it'll come down to these two.
Sek
Dem
I see the Field at +336 at one of my books right now. How on earth do you pass this up? Hillary was vulnerable without the e-mail scandal and now that really seems to be blowing up. The rumors of the White House trying to push Biden in the race tell me the concerns about Hill lasting are very real. She already got crushed once as an "inevitable candidate" and there's no reason why it can't happen again. There are already many unions out there supporting Sanders and he continues to gather momentum, if an email server indictment hits, it's over. Her husband was a campaigning savant, but she has the charm of a 20-year old sofa. Anyone laying money on Hillary to win the nomination has more cents than sense.
Rep
Look, Trump is a ton of fun and I really enjoy watching the establishment parties squirm as he ratchets up his antics. He'd probably make a decent (and extremely entertaining) President, but let's get real, he's got virtually no chance of winning the nomination. Although some loved him fighting Megyn Kelly at the debate, and it hardened their resolve for him, it also really turned a lot of people off and I really don't see Trump getting much past the 25-30% support he's gotten. Getting past his bombastic style, he's got a tough time getting the other 70% to like him and ignore his support for left-wing positions in the past. This is probably his peak. At 6-1, he has to be a massive underlay. I don't think I'd give him greater than a 2% chance of actually winning (50-1).
Jeb Bush is the money king, and usually these guys have a pretty big advantage. Mitt Romney wasn't an excitable candidate, but he had the money and establishment in his corner and one-by-one he winged all challengers (Santorum, Cain, Gingrich) in the last cycle with his steady debate performances and huge financial edge. Bush has other problems though including his brother. Somehow he gives off even less energy than Romney did during the debates. There are a couple recent polls that have him really dropping off from that debate as others surged. I think Bush fatigue has set in and there's really very little excitement surrounding him. His money will keep him in it until the end though, so he has a chance. Probably 20% or so IMO, which makes his +150 a very poor wager.
Scott Walker really underwhelmed me in the debate. I thought this guy would be one of the major front runners for this nomination, but he didn't come off as much of an orator last Thursday and in the modern era, that is huge. I just feel like he's kind of getting lost in the mix here and that could be dangerous for his chances. He should do well in Iowa (possibly win), and that gives him a shot at getting him some momentum into the next rounds, but I think he'll continue to have trouble standing out in the debate with some of these other candidates. I've seen +550 on him, I think that's a bit cheap. I suppose he has a shot, but not a huge one. 10% at best, which makes him another poor bet.
There's a bunch of candidates I really don't see getting enough momentum/money to be a factor. This includes Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, John Kasich. I think Kasich might have the best chance from this bunch to get some momentum going. But all of these candidates have some flaws that leave them vulnerable to capturing enough delegates to win. I don't see any of them getting the "Big Mo" and exciting the GOP base. That is what is necessary to win. Maybe a lightning bolt strikes and one of them really takes off but I give each of these candidates about 2% chance each (10% combined) to pull off an upset.
Now, there's two candidates I think offer the best value.
#1 Marco Rubio - Good looks, youthful, solid campaigner/speaker, steady at the debates. He also has GOP establishment backing on a lot of positions. When/If Bush falters I could really see the party elites rallying around Rubio and trying to push him as the front runner. I think he offers tremendous value at +600. I think he has very good shot at winning, maybe 35-40% which makes him a solid wager at the books.
#2 Ted Cruz - Tea party darling which is worth a ton in these low-turnout primaries. He's also a Princeton debate champion. He already got a nice bump from the last debate without even standing out too much, and as the field whittles down I can see him really standing out at the debates and moving people into his corner. He's getting north of 20-1 at many of the books, I think 20% chance is not too high of an outlook. He did something VERY smart that no other GOP candidate did, and that was going out of his way to NOT ATTACK Trump. Trump has even made very positive comments about Cruz on Twitter. When Trump momentum dies, I predict a good chunk of Trump's followers moving into Cruz camp. Cruz has fought the establishment at every turn. He called the Senate Majority Leader of his own party a liar on the floor of the senate. This stuff plays big among the base. Another positive edge for Cruz is that he's raised a TON of SuperPAC money. I believe in overall money, he's 2nd only behind Bush. He's a pretty shrewd guy and I don't see him making a horrible gaffe to take him out of the race.
I think these two will be the main cogs left after Super Tuesday comes and goes. The establishment will be backing Rubio, the Tea Party will be behind Cruz and it'll come down to these two.
Sek
