[h=1]Handicapping the AL East race[/h][h=3]What was once baseball's most lopsided division is entirely up for grabs[/h]By Paul Swydan | ESPN Insider
The American League East used to be the best division in baseball. From 2007 through 2012, the East boasted at least half of the American League's 90-win teams. But last year, things changed: Of the six clubs that crossed the 90-win threshold in the AL, just two resided in the East.
The quality of play among the division's elite has regressed even further this season. FanGraphs projects all five AL East teams to finish the year with between 77.8 and 84.2 wins; this time around, it seems unlikely a single team will tally a 90th victory.
Still, as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays all fade, parity in the East has reached what might be an all-time high. In fact, the margin between the highest and lowest projected win totals in the AL East is currently the lowest in all of baseball.
In other words, what was once baseball's most lopsided division is now entirely up for grabs.
Below I have listed each team with its current projected record and playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. And I have looked into our crystal ball to envision two different end-of-season scenarios for each AL East club.
[h=3]Baltimore Orioles, 84.2-77.8 (projected record), 45.5 percent (playoff odds)[/h]
How they win the division
Kevin Gausman remains in the rotation, goes on a tear and becomes the staff ace the team hoped it had in Ubaldo Jimenez. The other starting pitchers continue to defy their decidedly dreadful FIPs. Chris Davis and Manny Machado start hitting the ball with authority again, and Steve Pearce and Nelson Cruz never cool off. The team acquires Daniel Murphy, who gives the O's a huge offensive boost down the stretch.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Why they don't
Nick Hundley, Caleb Joseph, Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty and David Lough don't hit like major leaguers, and Machado and Delmon Young struggle to fare much better. In other words, the O's quality bats fail to pick up the slack for the bad ones. ... The luck of the starting pitching staff runs out.
[h=3]Toronto Blue Jays, 84-78, 44.1 percent[/h]
How they win the division
They get back to the business of bludgeoning people, returning to the top-five offensive form they flashed in the season's first two months. ... Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison continue to pitch effectively, and the team replaces J.A. Happ in the rotation with Ian Kennedy, whom they acquire in tandem with Chase Headley. Headley ultimately replaces Juan Francisco, who stopped hitting back in June.
Why they don't
The team fails to make a move, and the dilemma of having just one quality player to man second and third base is never solved. ... Edwin Encarnacion remains out longer than the initial two- to four-week estimate. ... Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey settle back into mediocrity. ... Casey Janssen stops being Superman. ... Sergio Santos once again struggles in a high-leverage role, and Dustin McGowan gets hurt one final time.
[h=3]New York Yankees, 81.7-80.3, 23.3 percent[/h]
How they win the division
Getting rid of Alfonso Soriano proves to be the right decision, as Ichiro Suzuki and Carlos Beltran begin to hit like they once did. ... Mark Teixeira stays healthy and productive, and Michael Pineda and/or CC Sabathia returns late in the season to provide a boost to the starting rotation. In the meantime, Brandon McCarthy turns out to be the rock the rotation needed. ... Derek Jeter rides one last hot streak, and Brett Gardner continues to have the best season of his career at the dish.
Why they don't
The Über-veterans (Beltran, Suzuki, Jeter) never find their strokes, David Robertson and Dellin Betances struggle to maintain their dominance, reminding everyone of why Mariano Rivera was so special. McCarthy's HR/FB ratio does not dip in the Bronx, and Chase Whitley regresses, joining the likes of Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon and others in the dustbin of Yankees' history.
[h=3]Tampa Bay Rays, 77.7-84.3, 5.5 percent[/h]
How they win the division
They don't trade David Price or Ben Zobrist. ... Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Zobrist all experience a prolonged resurgence. ... Kevin Kiermaier keeps raking like Wil Myers was supposed to. ... Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger continue to be a dynamite relief tandem, and Alex Cobb begins pitching like he did the past two seasons.
Why they don't
The Rays' hitters finish the season just as poorly as they started it. The team concedes and trades Price and Zobrist. ... Jake Odorizzi can't balance the scales between his mediocre ERA and above-average FIP, leaving the team with just one above-average starting pitcher in Chris Archer. ... The bullpen posts its worst ERA and FIP since 2007.
[h=3]Boston Red Sox, 77.8-84.2, 6.0 percent[/h]
How they win the division
The team starts hitting again, showing similar form to the team that posted the second-best wRC+ from 2011-2013 (the Sox rank 26th this season). ... The acquisition of Drew Stubbs or Alex Rios -- or the return of Shane Victorino -- helps bolster the offense, allowing the Sox to shift Brock Holt to third base and Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop (thus jettisoning Stephen Drew). ... The underwhelming Jake Peavy is cut, Rubby De La Rosa is thrust back into the rotation and does well.
Why they don't
The team continues to stubbornly hang on to veterans who are dragging down the team's present and future, such as Peavy, Drew and Craig Breslow. ... Victorino doesn't get healthy and stay healthy, and the team doesn't make an effort to find an upgrade. ... Holt is unable to maintain his .385 batting average on balls in play, and turns back into the replacement player he was considered two months ago. ... Bogaerts doesn't pull out of his slump, and Dustin Pedroia demonstrates he is no longer capable of hitting for power.
Whether you believe odds of 6 percent for the Red Sox and 5.5 percent for Rays represent statistical errors or glimmers of hope, the fact is that both teams are in a better position to reach the postseason than almost any of their cellar-dwelling peers. Aside from the Cincinnati Reds, who have a 19.6 percent chance at a postseason berth, baseball's other fourth- and fifth-place teams have playoff odds of 1.1, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 and 0.0 percent. There is even a third-place team -- the San Diego Padres -- with playoff odds of just 0.7 percent.
We've seen miracles happen in the AL East before. But this year, it won't take a miracle to make it to October. Amidst a diminished field, all any one of these teams needs to do is play a bit better than it has so far, and it'll find itself in the playoffs.
The American League East used to be the best division in baseball. From 2007 through 2012, the East boasted at least half of the American League's 90-win teams. But last year, things changed: Of the six clubs that crossed the 90-win threshold in the AL, just two resided in the East.
The quality of play among the division's elite has regressed even further this season. FanGraphs projects all five AL East teams to finish the year with between 77.8 and 84.2 wins; this time around, it seems unlikely a single team will tally a 90th victory.
Still, as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays all fade, parity in the East has reached what might be an all-time high. In fact, the margin between the highest and lowest projected win totals in the AL East is currently the lowest in all of baseball.
In other words, what was once baseball's most lopsided division is now entirely up for grabs.
Below I have listed each team with its current projected record and playoff odds, according to FanGraphs. And I have looked into our crystal ball to envision two different end-of-season scenarios for each AL East club.
Kevin Gausman remains in the rotation, goes on a tear and becomes the staff ace the team hoped it had in Ubaldo Jimenez. The other starting pitchers continue to defy their decidedly dreadful FIPs. Chris Davis and Manny Machado start hitting the ball with authority again, and Steve Pearce and Nelson Cruz never cool off. The team acquires Daniel Murphy, who gives the O's a huge offensive boost down the stretch.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Why they don't
Nick Hundley, Caleb Joseph, Jonathan Schoop, Ryan Flaherty and David Lough don't hit like major leaguers, and Machado and Delmon Young struggle to fare much better. In other words, the O's quality bats fail to pick up the slack for the bad ones. ... The luck of the starting pitching staff runs out.
They get back to the business of bludgeoning people, returning to the top-five offensive form they flashed in the season's first two months. ... Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison continue to pitch effectively, and the team replaces J.A. Happ in the rotation with Ian Kennedy, whom they acquire in tandem with Chase Headley. Headley ultimately replaces Juan Francisco, who stopped hitting back in June.
Why they don't
The team fails to make a move, and the dilemma of having just one quality player to man second and third base is never solved. ... Edwin Encarnacion remains out longer than the initial two- to four-week estimate. ... Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey settle back into mediocrity. ... Casey Janssen stops being Superman. ... Sergio Santos once again struggles in a high-leverage role, and Dustin McGowan gets hurt one final time.
Getting rid of Alfonso Soriano proves to be the right decision, as Ichiro Suzuki and Carlos Beltran begin to hit like they once did. ... Mark Teixeira stays healthy and productive, and Michael Pineda and/or CC Sabathia returns late in the season to provide a boost to the starting rotation. In the meantime, Brandon McCarthy turns out to be the rock the rotation needed. ... Derek Jeter rides one last hot streak, and Brett Gardner continues to have the best season of his career at the dish.
Why they don't
The Über-veterans (Beltran, Suzuki, Jeter) never find their strokes, David Robertson and Dellin Betances struggle to maintain their dominance, reminding everyone of why Mariano Rivera was so special. McCarthy's HR/FB ratio does not dip in the Bronx, and Chase Whitley regresses, joining the likes of Aaron Small, Shawn Chacon and others in the dustbin of Yankees' history.
They don't trade David Price or Ben Zobrist. ... Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Zobrist all experience a prolonged resurgence. ... Kevin Kiermaier keeps raking like Wil Myers was supposed to. ... Jake McGee and Brad Boxberger continue to be a dynamite relief tandem, and Alex Cobb begins pitching like he did the past two seasons.
Why they don't
The Rays' hitters finish the season just as poorly as they started it. The team concedes and trades Price and Zobrist. ... Jake Odorizzi can't balance the scales between his mediocre ERA and above-average FIP, leaving the team with just one above-average starting pitcher in Chris Archer. ... The bullpen posts its worst ERA and FIP since 2007.
The team starts hitting again, showing similar form to the team that posted the second-best wRC+ from 2011-2013 (the Sox rank 26th this season). ... The acquisition of Drew Stubbs or Alex Rios -- or the return of Shane Victorino -- helps bolster the offense, allowing the Sox to shift Brock Holt to third base and Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop (thus jettisoning Stephen Drew). ... The underwhelming Jake Peavy is cut, Rubby De La Rosa is thrust back into the rotation and does well.
Why they don't
The team continues to stubbornly hang on to veterans who are dragging down the team's present and future, such as Peavy, Drew and Craig Breslow. ... Victorino doesn't get healthy and stay healthy, and the team doesn't make an effort to find an upgrade. ... Holt is unable to maintain his .385 batting average on balls in play, and turns back into the replacement player he was considered two months ago. ... Bogaerts doesn't pull out of his slump, and Dustin Pedroia demonstrates he is no longer capable of hitting for power.
We've seen miracles happen in the AL East before. But this year, it won't take a miracle to make it to October. Amidst a diminished field, all any one of these teams needs to do is play a bit better than it has so far, and it'll find itself in the playoffs.
