HANDICAPPING FOR SPORTSBETTING.....MY SHAMEFUL SECRET

[dimeplayersonly]

first of all i have the utmost respect for people that are able to scrutinize stats, information, untold mountains of data,ect.. and are able to turn a profit....

i have never handicapped a sporting event ever....(horse-racing yes)...

i have relied on other peoples hard work, blood, sweat and tears....to make my decisions either for or against.....riding the coat-tails of sharps and wise-guys...information that is normally reserved for a handfull of people..

i have used other peoples ineptitude at picking winners (shrink, touts and public opinion)

...to make an obscene amount of money over the years by fading their picks.....i have a player that is so notorius at picking losers, that i fade him without blinking an eye...so bad that his picks are requested by many for fading purposes... i am convinced he is the sole cause of every bad beat in sports betting...

yet i feel no guilt or remorse when i do this.....(socio-pathic traits....i know)....

anyone could challenge me to a handicapping contest....and i would fail miserably unless i resorted to the above described practice of using other people......

call me bad names...i know i deserve it....

 

[TheGeneral+]

It appears to me that you are a savvy and smart man.

 

[Skyweasel]

share the fades with us, we won't hate you!

 

[1cheater]

DPO, would this guy's name happen to be Buggy?

My cousin has got to be the best fade, we call him "Buggy"

 

[ironlock]

I must admit that this method is a major reason for a good deal of my success as well.

Shhhhhhh.. Be Quiet about it now.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Nothing wrong with it, handicappers who hit 45 % are just as valuable as those who hit 55 %.

 

[Alejocruz+]

Good to know i still have hope, i'm not the only one with no handicappping skills.

"The important thing is not having the information, but having the numer of the dude who has it"

 

[Horseshoe]

I'd "guesstimate" that a good 20 to 30% minimum of dime-plus players, that I've met in a lifetime, from coast to coast, including some of the LV-based pros, movers, & BMs, are primarily "followers","coppers/faders", and generally extremely market-savvy individuals that "know the market", and "play it blind/play the man."

Many bettors(even many industry folks) can tell you every stat, roster, or factoid..yet can't detect a queer number, or let smart money outrule their bias, or reign in the greed,etc..

While..

..Many Wiseguys, Sharps, Movers, Followers, & BMs couldn't tell you "who's on first in Yankee Stadium" with the their left nut on the chopping block, but know money talks, and find ways to win, by following and/or fading..bet it individuals, groups, stores, the number,etc..

For as many pros as this industry has across the world, let alone the nice number in LV, there aren't but so many "real" originators of the early 'capping/mid to late handicappers/line movers/etc..to North American sports.

I know some dumb sharpies, and I know some smart losers!

 

[wilheim]

I have to believe a hybrid version of both types is sharpest. A bettor who can sniff out a bad number without any real handicapping involved combined with one who can dig into a picthers form and come up with a valued opinion how that pitcher might fare on a given day and against a particular opponent. The real problem with blindly fading or following (especially fading) is its just that 'blind'. Nothing wrong with fading losing players provided they are consistent losers, personally I have never been much for that type of betting. I can see where a bookmaker would find it attractive only because what real bookie has any time to actually handicap? The more I read of different handicapping techniques the less I hear of cappers using power rankings to make their own line, I know many still do, but it seems to be getting less popular these days. I used to work for a guy that bet strictly from his own PR number. He would make a number for a game and play if he could find a book hanging something 5 or 6 points differnet from his in the NBA for example, 3 or 4 in football. Made no difference which way favorite or dog. He did very well, once you get the PRs fine tuned they can be very effective. Some predict final scores while others a projected pointspread, either way it takes constant fine tuning because of injuries and slumps to keep the rankings sharp. Not easy, but do able. I can remember one season I had NBA totals cold for a good 5 or 6 weeks, funny when the playoffs started the numbers were useless.

wil.

 

[Horseshoe]

I agree Wil, yet most true cappers that I know of, use a multitude of PRs to form their own numbers, then fine tune their areas of expertise.

Most all of the early cappers and parameter guys I know of, hitting the openers aren't playing by feel, they are playing off their guidelines/parameters.

I remember years ago before the net, and daily updates, having to make GoldSheet, Sagarin, BlueSheet,etc..multiple set numbers to every football game on the card..current, week old sets, two week old #'s, season start numbers,etc..then use a Feist Weekly Year Game Log Book game observation/notations to adjust..still do somewhat.

Would your old boss be from "the island" mentioned above?

 

[wilheim]

Shoe, I know the PR game is more complex these days. I have seen more than a few real pros do their thing with spit out computer power numbers, the best was (still is to an extent) a founding member of the computer group (not BW). My old boss was from Oklahoma not sure if you know him or not, he was never in the top echelon of Vegas movers. To be honest my first power rankings came from gold sheets going way back into the 70s'. I would let the season get a little meat on its bones then fine tune my numbers off played games tweaking them until they gave me past post winners - then trying them out with live action, all the time fine tuning. I never looked at that stuff as work for some reason. Gambling can do that to ya.

wil.

 

[Horseshoe]

As a kid I grew up keeping my father's baseball pitcher's logs updated from newspaper boxscores in graphed spiral notebooks, including the amount of runs & which innings allowed, for my weekly allowance, with special notes(errors that allowed big innings, 1st inning allowances,etc..)in the margins from writeups, and/or watching the games live on the big dish.

Don Best and the net have eased much of the workload for many pros these days.

My father had an extended stay in OKC many years ago to work from an office there, he may know your guy?

I know of the man and the college parameters you speak of.