Handicapping College Football 101

[GoSooners]

SoonersBS...I hope you don't mind me posting this. It was too hard to sift through all of the RX threads here where you posted it last summer.. So I found it on your other site. Many of you out there already know most of this stuff. But it's always good to be reminded of some of the small details we may overlook in capping games. And it's a good refresher course that I think bares repeating:




Handicapping College Football 101
<HR style="COLOR: #ffffff; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --><!-- BEGIN TEMPLATE: ad_showthread_firstpost_start --><!-- END TEMPLATE: ad_showthread_firstpost_start -->This is kind of a BIG subject with me, but I have been asked by a couple of posters how do I go about capping college football. I want to start my answer by first mentioning that there are different approaches to capping college football for profit and mine is only one approach. I want to encourage others to add to this thread their own approaches and info on capping this great sport.

First, my handicapping begins by gathering info and researching teams from the start of April whenever they start their Spring football sessions. You cannot learn everything you need to know from these sessions, but you do get some idea as to what the coaches are going to use personnel-wise for the upcoming season. You can also gather some info on what kind of offensive and defensive schemes they intend to run if they have intentions of changing them from the previous season. From April to the start of the first game, it is also important to keep a log of injuries, suspensions, transfers and other business that causes the absence of key personnel on each team. I usually spend the Summer reading articles about each team from the internet, Phil Steele's magazine, and Blue Ribbon Magazine.

Secondly, I try to find some great situations through the season for each team where there will likely be mismatches, "look ahead" spots, or revenge games that I can play on. This helps me to assess further the strengths and weaknesses of each team so I can increase my knowledge on them. This also helps me to know what teams are likely to be "fade" teams for the season, "play on" teams for the season, "UNDER" teams for the season, and "OVER" teams for the season.

Thirdly, I look for factors that will help me in my evaluation of the strength and weaknesses of teams. Personally, my handicapping of strength and weakness in a team begins with the offensive and defensive lines. Skill players, no matter how great they are, cannot perform without solid offensive lines. A good case of this was Colt McCoy for Texas. In 2006, Texas fans were touting his greatness due to the fantastic season he had as a freshman. What was not observed was the fact that he was playing behind one of the greatest offensive lines ever to play at Texas. Last season, many of those offensive linemen moved on. McCoy's numbers and production took a nose-dive because his protection was not as great with the weakness of the offensive line (that should improve this season by the way . . . ). Defensively, offenses can establish the run game against a weak defensive line. If a team can establish the run game, it opens the entire offense up to success. So, the lines are important to me whenever I start to assess how strong a team will be. Of course, you have to have good skill players as well (QB, RB, and WR). From there the linebacking corps and defensive backs need to be assessed. A team with a piss-poor defensive backfield will be slaughtered when playing a good passing team (Anyone remember Louisville last season?) Also, special team play has become very important in college football and should be assessed for the strength and weakness of a team. Other factors are coaching and roster depth (you can find this in Phil Steele's magazine).

By the time I come to the games and through the season, I look for situations (revenge, look-ahead, previous game let-downs, rivalry, etc.) to help me decide whether a line is worth playing. I am mostly a "situational" player myself. I love to play against teams in "look ahead" spots where they are going to be playing somebody better than their present opponent and I love to play on teams that lost or didn't cover the week before because they played well below their potential. I also like to fade teams in a game where the week before they played way over their heads.

I look at factors such as power rankings and trends in games to see if anything is way out of whack with a line. However, last season wreaked havoc on power ratings. BUT, last season was an unusual season and I don't think we are likely to see it as a norm.

There is also an element that cannot be explained by numbers, trends or situations. It's called the "gut" factor. Last year in Bowl season, I dropped a lot of my normal handicapping (mainly because it didn't produce well last year) and went mostly to the "gut" factor. I relied more on my knowledge of the strength and weaknesses of teams and played on teams that I felt were more powerful and likely to cover the spread. It ended up being vastly productive! Even more interesting is the fact that I used this same factor whenever I switched over to capping the NBA. The results were to end the season at 60% (would have been even better had I quit before the playoffs started -sigh-). I can't explain to you how to go by your gut instincts. In fact, some people's guts stink! (Pardon the pun). My gut instincts are always based on nearly 10 months of continual research and knowledge on college football.

Lastly, how do we judge whether a line is worth playing or not? Let me start by mentioning this -- Vegas is very good at setting lines on games. I think (and this is what I learned from last season) that we need to stop analyzing lines as much as simply accepting that the line is right. Now, we need to ask ourselves, since the line is right, which team, because of situations, strengths, weaknesses, offensive and defensive schemes, personnel, or otherwise is most likely to play better than the other and cover the line. I know that sounds too simplistic, but I think sometimes we make this more difficult than we need to do. Again, this has to be done by having knowledge on the teams playing and looking for motivating factors that might give one team an edge over others. Let me help you eliminate some games: it's not wise to play on a "road" favorite laying a bunch of points ever, I don't care how good they are and how great the line may look. Always play on teams that have a great chance of winning the game straight up and are catching points at home (you will not likely find this situation often, but occasionally it does occur.) Do not play on teams that are in a "rebuilding" year at the beginning of the season. However, monitor their progress because the losses they had the beginning of the season can easily turn into wins at the end of the season as the team gets more experience and plays better. Vegas usually sets good "dog" lines on these teams because of the way they started their season. Do not play on teams that have sucked all season long but catch what looks like a great line in one of their closing games.Whenever you have games where two teams of equal strengths and situations are playing and the line is close to a "pick 'em", play on the team with the most capable coach. Again, you need to have knowledge of the teams and coaches to implement this. Do not play against teams that are playing their last home game of the season. Also known as "Senior Day." These teams are usually highly motivated and need to be played on rather than against. Fade teams that are playing their first game on the road with a new starting QB.

 

[GoSooners]

Here is another one that I had on my computer.

<CENTER>Winning College Football Handicapping

</CENTER>The 7 Habits of Highly Effective College Football Handicappers
by Jerald of Predictem.com
It is said that only 2% of all gamblers make money and that the other 98% lose money. Whether you bet on college football for a living or just for recreation, here are 7 habits that if you employ will help your bottom line.
1. Get the best number possible – You must shop around for the best price. You should have a minimum of 4 books to choose from so that you can get the best number available. Diligent line shopping can turn several losers into winners. Example - If you play 10 games a week and for 12 weeks of the regular season that would be 120 games. If you are a 54% that means you would win approximately 65 games. If you could turn just 6 of those games from losers to winners you would change your win % from 54% to 59%. Of course you may not always change a loser to winner but you can turn a loser into a push or a push into a win which will still greatly affect your win %. Compare sportsbooks at our reviews page.
2. Stick with straight bets – Many recreational players play a high volume of parlays. These bets are considered sucker bets and require a large house edge to play. Stick to straight bets and see your bottom line increase.
3. Analyze your wager after the game is completed – This is important for future reference. There are many times when a game is handicapped correctly but still loses. If you realize this then at least you know that the basis for the wager was sound and in similar circumstances in the future you can play with confidence.
4. Know where the value lies – The linemaker knows which side the people will lean to and they make the line accordingly. If a team has a great showing for a National TV appearance you can be sure that the linemaker will bump the line up by a point or 2 for next’s week game. This is also true of the teams that are always hyped up by ESPN, the general public likes to bet these teams no matter what the price is so the linemaker will inflate the line.
5. Watch the line moves – If a line moves try to determine why it is moving. Is there some information that you aren’t aware of like and injury? Is the line moving because of public perception? One thing that I like to look for is if the public is on the favorite but the line is actually decreasing. In these cases it usually means that the sharp players are on the underdog and can present a good wagering opportunity. Related: College Football Line Movement.
6. Money management – This is almost as crucial as actually picking winners. You must employ a sound money management approach and stick to it. I recommend only playing straight bets for a defined percentage of your bankroll (I suggest 2%). There are a number of people that recommend unit betting but I find that the flat bets work best for me.
7. Bankroll - You must have a defined bankroll that is money used only for your gambling. This MUST be money that is above and beyond your normal living expense. If you are playing with the rent money or your grocery money you are setting yourself up for trouble down the road.

 

[SoonerBS]

Good reminders here . . . . thanks, GS!

 

[UoweDucks]

I love this stuff. Everyone caps their own way but many of these pieces of advice should be adhered too. Unfortunately it took me a few years to learn some of these on my own. I've learned a lot from some of the veteran posters here and for that I am thankful.

A few pieces of advice that have helped me for anyone interested;

Stick to what you know. Years ago I stopped betting on teams/conferences that I didn't have a real good bead on. I know the P10 inside and out. That is my advantage over the books and if I stay disciplined I make money every yr.
For other conferences I rely on input from some of the very respected posters here. I have grown to value their expertise. However any bets that I make outside of my expertise I significantly reduce my risk by betting smaller.

Use risk management: Just like in investing, when things change after you place a wager, injuries, suspensions, even line movement. Be ready to adjust your thinking. Several times in the past few years I have bought out my bet, used halftime bets, or middled when the risk/reward ratio changed IMO.

Post your plays: I can't tell you how much posting my plays has made me into a better handicapper. It forces the homer instinct out of my handicapping. It forces me to make sure that I have done my homework and it keeps me from betting games that are too close to call. I have a rule, if I don't have the confidence to post a play here and be able to back up my line of thinking, I darn sure won't be betting it. I only want to play games that I have a very high degree of confidence in.

 

[Conan]

I don't know if this will make any sense, but I have an objective when I look at lines in a game I consider betting. The objective is to get a clear picture of how I believe the game will unfold to the point where I can visualize it or very close to that. In a nutshell, what are the critical factors that will dictate how the game unfolds? How many of the most significant factors line up at the same time? Compliment each other? I also try to visualize the worst thing that can happen then decide how likely or unlikely that is, and understand the reasons.

I try to keep all of that as real as I can from actual knowledge and if I don't know the answer, I'll either find out or I'll reduce the bet or pass on the game. There will be plenty of ways to win in a given weekend so it's wrong to get hung up on betting something I don't know enough about to get a clear visual.

There will be plenty of opportunities to spot good situations that I feel favor me so I try not to get too pushy. About 4 or 5 bets maximum per weekend. Maybe one or two more small wagers on TV games if there's an opinion I respect and the guy has been hitting.

Also, I look at the board and investigate games that involve teams that I do know something about, even if they didn't pop out as possible plays when I first saw the line. Sometimes when I look at them my memory is jogged and I can look into the game with a little more insight than I first realized I had, but often they require a lot more research. Often they are OOC games and I rely heavily on the Blue Ribbon Yearbook early in the year to suppliment my study over the spring and summer.

Then if I can be right about 2/3 of the time or close, I'm doing great.

One more major issue... I also want to say that I believe everyone hits a plateau or stale point in the year. When that happens, I have found that it pays to reevaluate the teams again and look closer at my "anticipated non-contenders" performances. Or maybe one of my play-ons has suffered too many injuries in key positioins for them to keep playing the way they had been playing.

It can be a good idea to reevaluate teams periodicaly and be ready to make some reversals in my strategy. That happens normally around week 8 or week 9.

I used to think it was just a jinx but now I think it was my own failure to acknowledge that some teams will improve during the year and they all tend to blossom out at the same time as if a full moon signaled the coral to spawn all at once.

For the first couple of months, I am accurate going on what I've studied up on all spring and summer and fall. Then sometime during the year the plateau will occur. I try to remember to keep an open mind and prepare myself to make some changes when that plateau happens. There is such a thing as doubt that is legitimate and not just paranoia. I recognize that happening when I get the feeling that my momentum has for some reason left me. My judgments and impressions may no longer be as correct as they have been. Things change. Now I must change my point of view. That is one tough mutha to handle correctly. In a way it's a little like letting go of this season as if it was last season. Sometimes you have to do it but fortunately it is only in small doses.

I've only taken this "jinx state" seriously for about a year or two. It has often happened for me around week 8 in the season going back for about 5 years. Taking things slow and approaching the card as if I needed to start all over, thoroughly researching some of the teams and arriving at a different oppinion. Changing my strategies. Changing the visuals. The result was that I had about 4%-5% more winners over the course of the whole season for that reason. Bad luck or no bad luck, it can be a tricky thing to wrap one's mind around. I think a lot of people can relate to this problem. How to avoid a burnout.

The key is to realize that it's never about them, it's always about you and your knowledge. Be current and be willing to change. Keep an open mind and don't let your knowledge become an ego thing. Extended celebration penalties can apply. Remember it's just a job, nothing more, but it can be demanding. If you keep an eye on what's been happening, you might just see what's coming. The work never ends.

 

[Delta00]

printing this out and closely reading it, thanks

 

[CoachLT]

LOVE, LOVE, The Situational angles!

Fading Come from Ahead Losers the next week. Gosh, how I LOVE College Football.

I feel a stirring in my loins just thinking about CFB. :toast: LT

 

[russ1945]

Handicapping 102

I think the tenets in the Handicapping 101 are sound and a good way to get started. But as Paul Harvey would say, "Here is the rest of the story".
If you bet $2,000 a week on College football for 12 weeks you would wager $24,000.00. Let's take it one week at a time. Week one you wager $2,000 and you hit 60%. You win 1200 and lose 880 (800 and the juice). You net 320.00 (13% on your 2400 investment).
Now if you can't pick parlays are sucker bets but not if you can pick well and pick consistantly.
There are a couple of us that do play parlays consistently. Let us see how big of a sucker we are. We bet 5 x 4 round robins (that is five teams on five separate 4 teamers and 1 five teamer) for $25.00 each/$150.00 total investment. If we hit 3 or less we strike out, zip, zero and we are out only $150.00. If we hit one 4 teamer that pays $275.00 and you net
$150.00 (you hit (1) 4 teamer, lose (4) 4 teamers and (1) five teamer).
If you hit hit all five (and we do this on a regular basis) that pays $1875
(you hit (5) 4 teamers @ 275 each and (1) five teamer @ 500).
Now you wagered $2,400, we have $2,250.00 left to play with.
I will leave the rest up to your imaginaion.
Now I repeat this is for the cream of the crop. A guy who is down might consider this as a possible shoot out instead of doubling up or worse.
We often play for $100.00 each ($600 total).
So we know a Razdizzle can do this, BS is way to sophisticated to do this much less figure out how to do it.
This is not meant to be a slam on handicapping 101. I am not encouraging anyone to try this or give it any guarantees. The books may consider parlays to be a sucker bet in the hands of most gamblers but it is their worst night mare to have someone with the ability to hit them with parlays. $150.00 is only 8% of the $2,000 you were going to wager anyway and you can always straight bet some of those games or other games altogether to cover your loss. You also have the option when you have a late game on your parlay and already have 4 in to bet against yourself to guarantee yourself money.
I repeat this is not for just anybody but I can assure you it works for us.
It has always been my gambling credo to bet a little to win a lot. Good luck!

 

[CoachLT]

I think the tenets in the Handicapping 101 are sound and a good way to get started. But as Paul Harvey would say, "Here is the rest of the story".
If you bet $2,000 a week on College football for 12 weeks you would wager $24,000.00. Let's take it one week at a time. Week one you wager $2,000 and you hit 60%. You win 1200 and lose 880 (800 and the juice). You net 320.00 (13% on your 2400 investment).
Now if you can't pick parlays are sucker bets but not if you can pick well and pick consistantly.
There are a couple of us that do play parlays consistently. Let us see how big of a sucker we are. We bet 5 x 4 round robins (that is five teams on five separate 4 teamers and 1 five teamer) for $25.00 each/$150.00 total investment. If we hit 3 or less we strike out, zip, zero and we are out only $150.00. If we hit one 4 teamer that pays $275.00 and you net
$150.00 (you hit (1) 4 teamer, lose (4) 4 teamers and (1) five teamer).
If you hit hit all five (and we do this on a regular basis) that pays $1875
(you hit (5) 4 teamers @ 275 each and (1) five teamer @ 500).
Now you wagered $2,400, we have $2,250.00 left to play with.
I will leave the rest up to your imaginaion.
Now I repeat this is for the cream of the crop. A guy who is down might consider this as a possible shoot out instead of doubling up or worse.
We often play for $100.00 each ($600 total).
So we know a Razdizzle can do this, BS is way to sophisticated to do this much less figure out how to do it.

Russ, are you and BS friends? LT

 

[russ1945]

Coach LT

Right. Apparently I don't have any friends much less BS. Coach I have a friend that uses that system in baseball, football, basketball and it is absurd how much he wins. He is the $100 a pop guy. Absolutely absurd.
I am not trying to win friends on here but I guarantee you I shoot straight and I am sincerely trying to become a better student of the game. Unlike BS, who definitely is not my friend, I am not sophisticated. In fact I have been rode hard and put up wet many times over. I was hesitant to put that on a thread. It is not a bravado thing with me, but a little nugget of info that works for some people. All I can say is don't knock it until you have tried it Coach. And by the way I forgot to mention that if you only hit one out 12 (actually 12.5) you break even. Did I mention that BS is not my friend. Good one Coach.

 

[CoachLT]

Russ, I did not know that there was a history with you and SoonerBS. Hope we ALL can learn a thing or 2 from the great pool of talent here. BOL to you, sir.:toast: LT

 

[Conan]

Russ, I did not know that there was a history with you and SoonerBS. Hope we ALL can learn a thing or 2 from the great pool of talent here. BOL to you, sir.:toast: LT

There isn't... not unless you want to call about a week or so "history"

"It's all in the mind really."
-John Lennon (renown rugby hadicapper)

Some of my best friends were once my enemies. (I killed the rest.)

 

[russ1945]

Russ, I did not know that there was a history with you and SoonerBS. Hope we ALL can learn a thing or 2 from the great pool of talent here. BOL to you, sir.:toast: LT

There is not history. I have really only seen two posts from BS. The first was poking fun at the OU team wearing pink panties during spring practice and it came when they had a team mate in critical care from a car accident. Bad joke and worse timing and I called him out on it. His remark was simply smart ass and I called him out on it. A few posters came to his aid and said I was being judgemental. There was nothing in his post that added anything to the mix. The only other post I have ever read of his was the wiseass dig at Randizzle who he also poked fun at again showing his infinite stupidity and again nothing constructive or contributary. His avatar is "I'm your dingleberry (I mean Huckleberry). That probably tells you all you need to know. I again jumped him since he was two for two on worthless posts and obviously none the wiser. Sorry if I ruffled anyone else's feathers but he is everything he says he hates.
Like I said, probably Dodgeball Sydrome, or something Freudian (like coming out of the closet before he reached puberty) have probably scarred him for life. And he apparently only graces these pages when it suits him. Apparently he sees me as some kind of threat. Sorry to drag otheres into the whole deal but I have a history of not being able to put up with his kind of (fill in the blank).

 

[russ1945]

There isn't... not unless you want to call about a week or so "history"

"It's all in the mind really."
-John Lennon (renown rugby hadicapper)

Some of my best friends were once my enemies. (I killed the rest.)

And the mind is a terrible thing to waste. Conan, when I grow up I am going to stay up late like you can. You are my hero. I think John Lennon fixed one or two rugby games in his younger days. Again, sorry if I caused a row but like superman I fight for peace, justice, and the American way....no matter who is President.

 

[SoonerBS]

One other handicapping strategy that has kind of developed over the past couple years is second half bets on teams that run a "no-huddle" offense, run it fast, and run it well. Tulsa has especially been good at this two years straight. Of course, you have to watch the game and be ready to lay the bet at halftime, but it is a good moneymaker.

 

[SoonerBS]

I don't know if this will make any sense, but I have an objective when I look at lines in a game I consider betting. The objective is to get a clear picture of how I believe the game will unfold to the point where I can visualize it or very close to that. In a nutshell, what are the critical factors that will dictate how the game unfolds? How many of the most significant factors line up at the same time? Compliment each other? I also try to visualize the worst thing that can happen then decide how likely or unlikely that is, and understand the reasons.

I try to keep all of that as real as I can from actual knowledge and if I don't know the answer, I'll either find out or I'll reduce the bet or pass on the game. There will be plenty of ways to win in a given weekend so it's wrong to get hung up on betting something I don't know enough about to get a clear visual.

There will be plenty of opportunities to spot good situations that I feel favor me so I try not to get too pushy. About 4 or 5 bets maximum per weekend. Maybe one or two more small wagers on TV games if there's an opinion I respect and the guy has been hitting.

Also, I look at the board and investigate games that involve teams that I do know something about, even if they didn't pop out as possible plays when I first saw the line. Sometimes when I look at them my memory is jogged and I can look into the game with a little more insight than I first realized I had, but often they require a lot more research. Often they are OOC games and I rely heavily on the Blue Ribbon Yearbook early in the year to suppliment my study over the spring and summer.

Then if I can be right about 2/3 of the time or close, I'm doing great.

One more major issue... I also want to say that I believe everyone hits a plateau or stale point in the year. When that happens, I have found that it pays to reevaluate the teams again and look closer at my "anticipated non-contenders" performances. Or maybe one of my play-ons has suffered too many injuries in key positioins for them to keep playing the way they had been playing.

It can be a good idea to reevaluate teams periodicaly and be ready to make some reversals in my strategy. That happens normally around week 8 or week 9.

I used to think it was just a jinx but now I think it was my own failure to acknowledge that some teams will improve during the year and they all tend to blossom out at the same time as if a full moon signaled the coral to spawn all at once.

For the first couple of months, I am accurate going on what I've studied up on all spring and summer and fall. Then sometime during the year the plateau will occur. I try to remember to keep an open mind and prepare myself to make some changes when that plateau happens. There is such a thing as doubt that is legitimate and not just paranoia. I recognize that happening when I get the feeling that my momentum has for some reason left me. My judgments and impressions may no longer be as correct as they have been. Things change. Now I must change my point of view. That is one tough mutha to handle correctly. In a way it's a little like letting go of this season as if it was last season. Sometimes you have to do it but fortunately it is only in small doses.

I've only taken this "jinx state" seriously for about a year or two. It has often happened for me around week 8 in the season going back for about 5 years. Taking things slow and approaching the card as if I needed to start all over, thoroughly researching some of the teams and arriving at a different oppinion. Changing my strategies. Changing the visuals. The result was that I had about 4%-5% more winners over the course of the whole season for that reason. Bad luck or no bad luck, it can be a tricky thing to wrap one's mind around. I think a lot of people can relate to this problem. How to avoid a burnout.

The key is to realize that it's never about them, it's always about you and your knowledge. Be current and be willing to change. Keep an open mind and don't let your knowledge become an ego thing. Extended celebration penalties can apply. Remember it's just a job, nothing more, but it can be demanding. If you keep an eye on what's been happening, you might just see what's coming. The work never ends.

This is really true, Conan. I remember you telling us on here last Summer that Fresno State would go all out on their non-conference schedule and then bomb in conference play. It was hard not to think about the early season FSU team during the midway to later season and start fading them. Those who did though did well. And, who of us would have thought that Virginia was going to win 4 straight SU and ATS in the middle of their season? Especially after we hit the USC/UV opener so accurately.

Some teams change dramatically through the season -- some for the better and some for the worse. I think it is one of the hardest things to figure out in handicapping college football. One thing I have learned to do to avoid this though is that if I lose bets on a team two weeks in a row. I don't play them anymore because it is obvious I don't have them figured out.

 

[Conan]

This is really true, Conan. I remember you telling us on here last Summer that Fresno State would go all out on their non-conference schedule and then bomb in conference play. It was hard not to think about the early season FSU team during the midway to later season and start fading them. Those who did though did well. And, who of us would have thought that Virginia was going to win 4 straight SU and ATS in the middle of their season? Especially after we hit the USC/UV opener so accurately.

Some teams change dramatically through the season -- some for the better and some for the worse. I think it is one of the hardest things to figure out in handicapping college football. One thing I have learned to do to avoid this though is that if I lose bets on a team two weeks in a row. I don't play them anymore because it is obvious I don't have them figured out.

I remember one of my losses was a play on SJSU. They were rolling along just fine and their new QB Kyle Reed, who came over from CAL looked like he was going to take hold of their offense. So I sat back and checked them out and sure enough they whupped their opponent that week. Reed looked great. I assumed that would continue, to some extent anyway.

The next week they played a major opponent and I figured they were up to it and I think they were even getting points at home. Either that or just a slight favorite. But they blew it, I think lost by DD and I wondered WTF? Afterwards, they could neither score NOR cover. As it turned out, they were pummeled with injuries over a 2 week period starting with Reed in a game they had won.

Why did I wait to find out that they lost their QB? I just figured that they had their bad game for the year. But their offense looked like crap for the rest of the season. I should have done my homework and seen what was coming. My bad.

In a typical week after that, they couldn't even cover a game at home. That's not the Spartan team I knew. Their offense literally evaporated. I am still kicking myself for not catching that, perhaps looking for a play-on instead of a team to fade. I should have caught it. If I didn't like Dick Tomey as much as I do, I might have been a little colder and more objective about them and I'd have won a mess of money. But my biggest mistake was thinking that I had them figured out so I stopped reading up on them in depth and I never saw it coming. Shoot.

At least their defense was pretty good. Their secondary was sick. 3 of them were drafted by the NFL. But it didn't help them cover any games because their offense totally tanked. By the time I figured that out, the lines had also caught up to them and the value was gone.

That's the kind of thing that will kill you. Getting there a day late and a dollar short. I should have been willing to reevalutate my opinion of that team a lot sooner than I did. Last year I had only one losing week and I'm sure that was the reason why... (among a couple other similar things.)

 

[russ1945]

Conan

Keeping up with injuries is a point that phil steele has always stressed. It is always on the front page of his newletter. I always take his newletter and Pointwise. I like Steele's because of the type of info he has like injuries, and other things like turnovers making the difference, etc. I take pointwise because I like their stat format and its recaps of the prior weeks box scores. I know a lot of people run down touts but those two publications put information at your fingertips that would take hours to compile. Steele also has philsteele.com and a lot of that info is updated weekly on his site. I have no connection with either of those places but I give them credit where credit is due and you can access their publications by going on line and down loading them. So you get the info usually no later than Tuesday, plenty of time to study up.
I don't know how you guys have been doing this forum because I am new but we could set up a thread just for injuries. All of us homers could list the ones we personally know of, etc. Just a thought.

 

[Conan]

Keeping up with injuries is a point that phil steele has always stressed. It is always on the front page of his newletter. I always take his newletter and Pointwise. I like Steele's because of the type of info he has like injuries, and other things like turnovers making the difference, etc. I take pointwise because I like their stat format and its recaps of the prior weeks box scores. I know a lot of people run down touts but those two publications put information at your fingertips that would take hours to compile. Steele also has philsteele.com and a lot of that info is updated weekly on his site. I have no connection with either of those places but I give them credit where credit is due and you can access their publications by going on line and down loading them. So you get the info usually no later than Tuesday, plenty of time to study up.
I don't know how you guys have been doing this forum because I am new but we could set up a thread just for injuries. All of us homers could list the ones we personally know of, etc. Just a thought.

Yes it happened to be about an injury, in SJSU's case it was a pandemic. But it could have been anything, such as a big morale problem when CAL went into the tank a couple years back... for no apparent reason. We had been following them and no one here was willing to risk a bet on them anyway. But they seemed to get a lot more respect from SEC posters and others because they looked good in their first game vs Tenn. A let down, a look ahead by their opposition... it could have been anything aside from an injury. IMHO they fell apart because their leadership crumbled after a tough loss at home to Oregon State when Cal was literally 2 minutes away from becoming the #1 ranked team in the country. Fights were breaking out in the locker room etc. Dissention amidst the ranks. But the point is that we caught it and stayed away from them in every game, regardless of last year's stats or who they were playing. They should have been faded.

But the opposite is also true. I would look for a team with a lot of young players, talented new starters etc. who got off to a slow start. Often by the first week in November they right their ship and fool a lot of people going into a game with a losing record or even worse vs a team they aren't supposed to beat.

I remember such a case involving UCLA last season. Their offense stunk. After their season opening win vs Tennessee, a game which they were mercilessly outgained and had no business winning, their lone win afterwards was against WSU (and later UW) which were equally worthless to judge them by.

But after about 6 weeks, I had noticed that their play seemed to be improving. Even Kevin Craft's interceptions had for the most part disappeared. They also put up a pretty good fight @Oregon the in the prior week and their OL was even opening a few holes for their running backs. Their play was improving for about 3 weeks leading up to the Stanford game. They had lost 5 of their previous 6 games and nobody wanted to touch them.

But what the hell, as home dogs vs the Cardinal in W7 I took a shot at betting them straight up and won the bet. I would not have made that bet were it not for the fact that I was noticing an improvement in them a few weeks in a row leading up to that game and I LOGICALLY figured that it was time for them to win one.

That is a good example of a case where a team that was worth fading turned it around, at least for a week vs an opponent they could handle. All of the studying I had been doing and willingness to be a little flexible with my opinion of a losing team paid off. For me, it was one of my sharpest plays all year. I even laid off of them after that because that win was a high point for them and a letdown was possible afterwards. That also happened.

I am almost sure that I was alone on this board with that play. But if others had seen what I did in the weeks leading up to that game, steady improvement, I might not have been alone.

This kind of thing isn't necessarily what you look for every week, but just be aware because it happens. Don't be fooled by their standing as a poor team. It was a situational play. My point is that it's better to catch it before it happens instead of taking a loss and calling it a freak occurance. It was a calculated reversal -- Stanford was the better team last year but they were in the wrong place at the wrong time.

 

[russ1945]

No Brainers

It seems that I know more people who wager on college football than not, maybe I should get out more often. But I was in the shower trying to put my brain into neutral and I got on a train of thought I will share. How many times have you been discussing a game and someone (maybe even you) says Team A will Kill Team B it won't even be close. And then there is the simple come back that makes you wonder, can you name one player on either one of those teams, or even the coaches. As they stare at you with a blank face (or visa versa) it dons on them (or you) that you have a concept in your mind about Team A or Team B but in reality it is an opinion that your can't really explain in the depth that you would think you could. GS mentioned that he tries to get a feel for all the teams before the season starts but I do not put him in the same category as the scenario above because he does in depth studying. Until this year I was a little of both, did some homework, justified my picks to myself, and sometimes could not name a single player on a team I may have bet on or against. All of the golden rules on here about handicapping 101 have been passed down from generation to generation and the casinos just keep racking in the money. Money management is one thing, handicapping is a completely different animal. If you worry more about money management than you do doing your homework then it is all for not. That is why I feel compelled to share my findings. Because everyone does not have the time or the inclination to compile and analyze statistics and I do. I am not trying to anything more than share what I have found and continue to find so that we can begin to whittle down the edge that the casinos now have. Specifically the edges are compulsion to gamble in general, lack of money management, and the lack of knowledge and preparation that the general public does before they wager. The constant is that a gambler will gamble until he can't (runs out of money, divorce, nervous breakdown, alcohol, etc.). If times are going to get tougher than we have to get smarter if we are going to handicap and wager. I guess my point is don't wager unless you truly do your handicapping. If you rely on services you will never get there but if your aim is to wager and not to win use them. All you will do is change dollars.
I hope this kind of explains where I am coming from. Everyone that comes on here is not a GoSooner, a Sooner BS, a Conan, a Ducks, or a Coach but we can all contribute. If you read this take it upon yourself to join in, add something to the mix, focus on your home team, whatever. In the next four months we could combine a virtual library of information that can make a big difference in the long run. I am not on here to have a pissing contest or see if I can out pick anyone, I simply want to accumulate and share anything and everything I can come up with and have others do the same. I may be preaching to the choir in many cases, but like a preacher if I can convert just one person to this side then we will all be better for it.