Ham's Thursday (17-8 +23.43 units YTD)

[Hamboner0182]

Yesterday was the first losing day in 5 days. I listened to this forum on the syracuse under and that was stupid. I flip flopped on the toledo game and that cost me. O well. Lets move on to today.

The first one that stands out in St Marys +9 @ Gonzaga. I love St Marys here at first glance.

 

[Hamboner0182]

St Marys @ Gonzaga

Beating Gonzaga at home is always a tough task. Heck beating Gonzaga is tough. They have maybe the most overall talent any gonzaga team has ever had. Bouldin, Daye, Heytvelt, Pargo and on and on.

Stats will tell you this a very good rebounding team. They lead the conference in defensive rebounding. I think this is a little misleading however. They are so much bigger and more athletic than the other WCC teams they have played, they should outrebound them. In their 3 loses this year against Port St, Utah and Uconn, they were outrebounded in each game by 6,7 and 8. They allowed a total of 34 offensve rebounds.

Rebounding is where I think St marys will get them. The Gaels pull down 42 rebounds per game.

They are led by Australian import Patrick Mills, who is averaging 18.7 points per game. Mills has scored in double figures in all 19 games this season.

Diamon Simpson is averaging 12.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Simpson and Omar Samhan (9.8 rebounds) pull down a combined 20.7 rebounds per game, more than any other duo in the country.

Pargo has been worked by Mills in the past. Last year in Gonzaga Mills scored 20 and Simpson had 25. Mills got to the line 18 times last year when these teams played at St Marys.

I just think Mills is the better of the point guards and has played here before which will help. St marys will outrebound them and has great shock blockers in Simpson and Samhan (1.9 BPG and 2.2 BPG)

Gonzaga is a very talented team and will be up for this game. I just think it will be a close one. The question mark about Gonzaga every year is their toughness. This will be their chance to prove it.

St. Marys +9 (4 units -109)
St. Marys ML +350 (1 units)

 

[Hamboner0182]

Cal @ UCLA

Looking at UCLA's games I have seen one major factor or common theme in their loses. Great scoring guards can hurt them shooting but especially penetrating. In loses to ASU, texas and Washington (teams with great scoring guards), they allowed Abrams to score 31 Pts, 8-9 FT- Harden for ASU to score 24 and 7-9 FT and Thomas for Wash 24 Pts 9-12 from the line.

Cal brings in Jerome Randle, the 5'10" junior from chicago averaging second in the pac-10 at 19 PPG. Randle did not play well against UCLA in their games last year, resulting in blow out loses. Randle, though, is coming off a big game, finishing with 22 points and five assists in a 76-69 win over Oregon on Saturday.

Collison is averaging a league leading 31 Minutes per game and will have a tough time trying to guard Randle. Cal can shoot from the outside, their guards are shooting near 50% from 3 point range.

UCLA wins this game but Cal keeps in close. Cal has played well on the road in conference. They are 2-1 with a loss at stanford where they didnt play much defence and looked rusty coming off a weeks rest. I think they are ready to go tonight.

Other numbers
Rebounds/game
Cal 35.1 - UCLA 32.8
3 point shooting %
Cal 47% UCLA 38%
FT%
Cal 73% UCLA 68% - i love this stat with road dogs


Cal +9.5 (3 units -101)

 

[Hamboner0182]

Drake -7 (2 units -102)

 

[Hamboner0182]

Drake looks good, up at 8 at half. Need to slow down Evansville's Ely a little more. He has 11 at half, but once again hes their only scorer and getting not very much help.

Mich St @ Iowa
Michigan st has been bad on the road under Izzo the past few years. 6-19 on the road in conference in the past 3 seasons. This year is different, they are quieting crowds, avoiding long offensive droughts and crushing opponents on the boards.

Down 24-11 early in the game against the Buckeyes on Sunday, the Spartans dominated from there, outscoring OSU 67-43 in the final 26 minutes. MSUgot 46 combined points from sophomore guards Durrell Summers and Kalin Lucas, along with a 35-19 edge on the boards.

They have been shooting well and running a very efficient offence. They scored 52 points at Ohio st on Sunday. They are rested and ready to go into Iowa to face the young Hawkeyes. I think they will cover this spread but it may be tougher than some think.

The hawkeyes are young and excited to come home after playing 3 of 4 conference games on the road. I expect an up and down game. I think Iowa keeps it close at home and maybe we can even get some fouls down the stretch, although i dont think ill need them.

MSU O 125 (2.5 units -110

 

[Hamboner0182]

B]Illinois @ Minnesota[/B]

This game may just be what Illinois needs to end its 2 game road losing streak. Illinois has won 21 straight games over Minnesota. As bad as the Illini were last season they still managed to sweep the Gophers. I love the Illini's defence going on the road here, holding opponents to only 58 PPG, while Minnesota allows 65. Illinois passes the ball well, first in the conference in assist/game, leading the nation in assist/basket ratio.

I think Minnesotas advantage is on defence, coach loves to get in your face and cause turnovers. Minnesota leads the big ten in the steals/game but Illinois can counter that, they protect the ball very well. Rebounding will also be an advantage here for Minnesota. I hoep Illinois can hold its own on the glass. Their big men are more finese.

I like Illinois's skill players in this game. Davis, McCamey, Meacham as well as Tisdale. but I love the seniors point guard on the road! Chester Frazier. illinois has 5 players averaging double figures so they can spread the ball around and hopefully get mismatches against Minnesotas aggressive defence.


Illinois -1 (2 units -110)

come on Drake!

 

[Hamboner0182]

Summary

St. Marys +9 (4 units -109)
Cal +9.5 (3 units -101)
MSU O 125 (2.5 units -110)
Illinois -1 (2 units -110)
Drake -7 (2 units -102)
St. Marys ML +350 (1 units)

 

[Hamboner0182]

drakes not gonna cover, choke job in the second half, awesome.

BOL every

 

[Hamboner0182]

drake 5-23 from 3 point range at home. yuck

 

[Hamboner0182]

Summary

St. Marys +9 (4 units -109)
Cal +9.5 (3 units -101)
MSU O 125 (2.5 units -110) W
Illinois -1 (2 units -110)
Drake -7 (2 units -102) L
St. Marys ML +350 (1 units)

 

[hannowsky77]

on st marys as well at +10 and +400...they are gonna surprise some people tonight