Love the Purdue play and how it's one of your most confident plays of the day.
I know my Michigan, and whenever they're in a "must win / big game" situation like tonight against Purdue, they choke. Don't be fooled by Purdue playing a bunch of close games on the road in conference play (won by 2 at NW, won by 1 at Wisky, won by 4 at Iowa) and even dropping a few they "shouldn't" (lost in OT by 8 at OSU, lost by 3 to PSU), they're the better team.
Also, the school is on Spring Break, so the Maize Rage (aka the worst student section next to NW in the Big Ten) will be slim.