~Hårr¥THëHÄT'S~ Picks & Bets For Week 11 NFL

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Well guys after last week with a win with Dallas game but lost to Atlanta & New England just don.t cut it with me & with money line loses also. So I increased my stats and information this week. I did some additional adjustments on the power ratings which I use. I also did some great research with 'The DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders' the group causing or relating to a complete change relating to the point spread in team match-ups with there analysis. Statistics that break down every single play of the NFL season, a outstanding tool I use with our power ratings that gives us a edge in picking games we bet.

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The Green Bay Packers has some serious problems on offense & defense and there coaching staff. Big Mike is another question in his coaching. They are loaded with major injuries and may not be able to be solved. Mr. Rodgers just can't carry this whole team on his shoulders. The Defense is giving up 31 points in there last three loses. Washington has not allowed teams over 27 points after there first week. Washington has major strength in there wide receivers and tight end positions which is a big factor in this match-up. Reed and Davis just mention a few that makes Cousins look good. Our Power Rating > Power Ranking GB +2 Off> GB +1 However Home Team Advantage +3 WAS [ wash-out ] Total Yards WAS > 412.3 to GB 337.8 Def Yds.' > WAS> 372.4 to GB> 326.1 Our Bet Washington -2 1/2[ This line just might move up before game time] No money line bet this week]] To close to nuts & bolts on this one ]]] Washington 1st half is a great value and bet for me also -1 with a 10% juice

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Baltimore has the number 1 defense in the NFL. BAL rated number 1 in rushing also. BAL has held teams to rush against them to 65 yards holding. If Flaco remains solid like the last two games, this will be a close one. I predict score will be 20-17 or 24-21 or something like that. Defense wins games if the offense can make plays. From our power rating at +3 1/2 DAL with this match-up. Our line from stats rating on our power rating> Dallas -4. Our Bet Baltimore + 7 1/2/ No Money Line Bet Because Dallas might win but won.t cover & Money is in the -$340 not with this game.

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***A personal note from the Hat> We have talked to many different handicapper's Friday and Saturday and they are telling me to stay away from BUF at CIN game because of Dalton & Team. In last couple or 3 games there has been conflicts with the players and coaching staff. Especially with Daltons performance.

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Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[indiana]

Mr. H/hat..........as always appreciate your thought's and write ups...........BOL with all your action this weekend.............indy

 

[bigwang]

Best of luck Harry.

Heard a few things here about some Bengals wanting AJ to get playing time. Team never recovered from giving away the playoff game to Pitt. Lewis era needs to be terminated after season.

 

[cgarn]

GL Mr. Hat

 

[fadetheaction]

Thanks Harry, this season has been more humbling than most for me.

 

[TimmyRules]

Respect your plays Harry!
Have Was-1x 1H
Was -2x
Bal+7x
BOL to all wagers!

 

[tmader7]

Scoot over Harry, jumping in the cab with ya. BTW, can we bring my friend Seattle Sam, he's chompin at the bit to show a rookie QB "the ropes," LOL. GLTUs today!

~T~

 

[Recon792]

All the best this week Harry.

 

[TomandJerry]

best of luck this week Harry and thanks for what you do ........ contributing posts are always welcome. Good luck to all.

 

[fadetheaction]

Indeed-Best to all!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

More Information From Different Handicappers

More information from different handicappers who like the Colts play today. Just Can't receive enough information when picking a team to win.

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One of the best handicappers with best rating of the NFL and highest percentage of wins among all the handicappers in the country ~Teddy Covers~***Teddy is now hitting 73% w*** {with Sports Bits} >>>> No team in the NFL is hotter than Dallas, winning and covering each and every game since their Week 1 home loss to the Giants. Over the last month, they’ve won tough road games at Green Bay and Pittsburgh. But at home, they were lucky to get past Philadelphia and even luckier to cover the spread in overtime; continuing a long term trend of struggles to cover as a home favorite throughout the Jason Garrett era.
The Cowboys left it all on the field with their big win over the Steelers last week, a wild game that went back and forth through the final minute. Up next? A huge divisional showdown against hated rival Washington on Thanksgiving Day; a short week ahead. In between? This non-conference affair against a Ravens team; a game they’ve got to win by more than a TD to cover the spread. For Dallas to overcome this flat spot, they’d need an opponent they can just steamroll, like they did to the Browns a few weeks back.
But the Ravens aren’t getting steamrolled by anyone these days – all four previous losses for this first place squad have come by eight points or less; competitive games. John Harbaugh’s defense is ranked #1 in the NFL against the run (yards per rush) and #3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Their offense finally found some rhythm running no-huddle in the second half last week, turning a 7-6 deficit into a 28-7 victory. And, let’s not forget – Baltimore’s in first place right now; just like Dallas; a capable football team. Too many points! Take the Ravens.

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Sean Murphy hitting 65% w*** >>Play on: Colts -2½ or -3 -106 It seems as though a lot of folks are starting to buy into the Titans as a legitimate contender for the AFC South title. I'm not so easily convinced, however.
Keep in mind, just two games back the Titans were unable to keep pace with the Chargers in San Diego. Yes, they bounced back nicely with a blowout home win over the Packers last Sunday, but I believe they'll be in tough to repeat that effort here.
The Colts have simply owned the Titans over the years. Indianapolis comes into this one off its bye week, which came on the heels of a big road win over the aforementioned Packers. Indy has yet to deliver back-to-back wins this season, but I see this as an ideal spot for it to accomplish that.
The Titans simply haven't had any answers for the Colts offense in recent meetings, allowing at least 30 points in each of the last three matchups. With the Colts offense remaining intact, and coming off the bye week as I mentioned, I like Indy to prevail

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Art Aronson>> Colts -3
The Titans have looked great at times this year and very pedestrian in others. They’ve been alternating wins and losses over the last five games, most recently coming off a very satisfying 47-25 win over the Packers last Sunday. Indianapolis has to be feeling pretty confident here though, it also beat the Packers 31-26 before enjoying its bye last weekend. The Colts have had the Titans “number” over the years and when they met earlier this season, Indy came away with the 34-26 victory. Note that Tennessee is an absolutely horrific 2-12 ATS in its last 14 vs. the division and are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, including only 1-4 ATS this season. And note that Tennessee is an almost perfect 8-1 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of November. Consider a second look at the home side in this one.

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Mike Lundin Colts -3
The 4-5 Indianapolis Colts will host AFC South rivals Tennessee Titans (5-5) Sunday afternoon. Tennessee is coming off a 47-25 win against Green Bay, but I'm not convinced the Titans can come up with another monster performance like that. They'll face a Colts team coming off its bye week, and we can note that the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. Indy won 34-26 as a 4-point underdog at Tennessee on Oct. 23, and the Colts have now won 10 straight regular-season meetings with the Titans while going 9-1 ATS.
The Titans have struggled against division opponents in recent seasons while the Colts are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 vs. AFC South.

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Mike Lundin has put together a FANTASTIC 15-7 (68%) run with his NFL picks dating back to October 16, 2016! Dolphins -1 or -1 1/2 The big news going into this game is the Rams will be debuting rookie Jared Goff. This might not seem like a big deal, given how much the offense was struggling under quarterback Case Keenum. I'm sure even some people might view it as an upgrade. I'm not one of them. After watching Goff struggle the way he did on Hard Knocks, I wasn't surprised at all that LA waited this long to make the switch.
I know Fisher has said that he's not going to rush a rookie into action, but you don't trade up for the No. 1 pick and not expect to play him right away. Not in today's NFL. I personally think the Rams realized they made a mistake with Goff and were simply trying to save face by pushing back his debut.
I also think there's something to say about how Keenum reacted to losing his job. Given how poorly he has played, you wouldn't expect him to be so upset about losing the job, unless he feels that he gives the team the better chance to win. I get the feeling the Rams players don't think Goff has what it takes and if they aren't behind this move, things are going to go south in a hurry.

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Mike Lundin All of this and I haven't even mentioned that the Dolphins are arguably the better team here and come into this game on a roll, having won 4 straight. While Jay Ajayi and the running game is getting all the praise right now, I've really been impressed with the play of Ryan Tannehill, who I think is now on the same page with head coach and quarterback guru Adam Gase. The perception here is that this isn't a great matchup for Miami, because the Rams have such a talented defensive line. While it's definitely talented, it's much better at getting after the quarterback than stopping the run. LA is only 17th in the league against the run, giving up 103.1 ypg. On top of that, they could be missing two key pieces up front, as Quinn and Brockers are both questionable.
I just think there's too much value here with Miami not to take a shot on the Dolphins in this spot, as I just feel there's a much greater chance that Goff fails in his debut than comes out and lights the world on fire. Take Miami!

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I am also betting the Colts-3 early this morning with my other Bets. Also did some research my self and power rating and liked what I reviewed.

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COMPLEMENTS FROM ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~

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~My official bets this Sunday~

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Colts-3

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Washington -2 1/2

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Baltimore + 7 1/2 [Teddy Covers & Myself come to same conclusion// How can we both be wrong/LOL !!! Its almost like a "Oklahoma Guarantee"[ < look it up!!! LOL !!!

 

[tmader7]

Oklahoma Guarantee??? I got a bunch of gas wells in western OK, but not a damn one of them was a "guarantee," LOL. GL Harry, I took the over in that Colts game.

~T~

 

[OfficialSono]

Great write ups as usual Harry. Do you have any insight in to the Steelers/Browns game today?

 

[TonyQuotes]

Good Luck today Harry!!.........-TQ

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Great write ups as usual Harry. Do you have any insight in to the Steelers/Browns game today?

[h=3]Alex SmartNFL | Steelers vs Browns[/h]
Play on: Browns +8 -110

The Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak, and not looking very good of late, and are fade material here on the road . Note: PITTSBURGH is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and HC Tomlin is 9-18 ATS L/27 against lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of a ugly record are a team, that's desperate for a victory. Just one win , and than their free to tank, so that they can pick up North Carolina's super star under center Mitch Trubisky a Cleveland native in the draft. I know this one smells like a Norwegian fish market, but please just plug your nose, close your eyes and pull the trigger.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Browns - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-9 ATS L/38 opportunities.
Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover


*********Our rating has this match-up >>Last matchup in PIT, CLE really clobbered Steelers 31-10 in 2014 (1 of only 2 Big Ben losses to CLE in 21 games). There is lot points to cover if you take PIT.. and CLE is playing home also. This is what I have OfficialSono> Power Rating> - 5 PIT ...OFF POINTS + 5 1/2 /////PIT DEF POINTS>+7 CLE ///// TOTAL YARDS >PIT>375 To CLE>323///// Rushing Yards > PIT> 92 To CLE>98 Power Rank > PIT> 11 To CLE> 30.. Our Spread with 'The DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders' >>> CLE +6 1/2 Compared to -9 PIT

 

[OfficialSono]

Alex SmartNFL | Steelers vs Browns


Play on: Browns +8 -110

The Steelers are on a 3 game losing streak, and not looking very good of late, and are fade material here on the road . Note: PITTSBURGH is 3-13 ATS L/16 as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and HC Tomlin is 9-18 ATS L/27 against lower tier teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of a ugly record are a team, that's desperate for a victory. Just one win , and than their free to tank, so that they can pick up North Carolina's super star under center Mitch Trubisky a Cleveland native in the draft. I know this one smells like a Norwegian fish market, but please just plug your nose, close your eyes and pull the trigger.
NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Browns - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-9 ATS L/38 opportunities.
Play on the Cleveland Browns to cover


*********Our rating has this match-up >>Last matchup in PIT, CLE really clobbered Steelers 31-10 in 2014 (1 of only 2 Big Ben losses to CLE in 21 games). There is lot points to cover if you take PIT.. and CLE is playing home also. This is what I have OfficialSono> Power Rating> - 5 PIT ...OFF POINTS + 5 1/2 /////PIT DEF POINTS>+7 CLE ///// TOTAL YARDS >PIT>375 To CLE>323///// Rushing Yards > PIT> 92 To CLE>98 Power Rank > PIT> 11 To CLE> 30.. Our Spread with 'The DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders' >>> CLE +6 1/2 Compared to -9 PIT

Fantastic, thanks Harry. I was going to make a play on the ML alongside the Pats for 6k to win 3k.

 

[THawk+]

Hey Harry, great info and work as always... Always read your posts...

Could you let us know the weight of each pick? Like Wash may be 3X Wash 1st half 1X Ravens 2X etc...

Always hear you talk about your money management but you never show how you do it with your picks and how they are weighted..

Much appreciated if you can add that in from now on I am always trying to learn

TY and good luck today

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Hey Harry, great info and work as always... Always read your posts...

Could you let us know the weight of each pick? Like Wash may be 3X Wash 1st half 1X Ravens 2X etc...

Always hear you talk about your money management but you never show how you do it with your picks and how they are weighted..

Much appreciated if you can add that in from now on I am always trying to learn

TY and good luck today

Units In Nickels $ & Dimes $

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Baltimore + 7 1/2 > $$

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Washington -2 1/2>$

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*** Colts-3 $ [ This Bet Will Be A Press In Week 12 On A Pick & Bet ] Press win on point spreads is worth +3 game win and your original investment[ Nickel bets are always pressed[ If you don't press Nickel bets T Hawk you don't win on short end of money management[ Late Bob Martin[ My Mentor teached me this theory and other management money skills.
T Hawk I somtimes press money line bets when I am laying money to plus money line bet[ If I like the action in following week Monday & Thursday night games included. If you don't press laying money[-] line bets to plus[+] money line bets the lay will kill you if you lose to many bets on the lay {example -$280 press to +280 bet[ just an example ] You see T Hawk

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

~Hårr¥THëHÄT~ Win/loss Results For Week 11 NFL

~Hårr¥THëHÄT~ Win/loss Results For Week 11 NFL

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Colts -3 Win

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Washington -2 1/2-3 Win

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Washington 1st half -1 with a 10% juice Win

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Baltimore + 7 1/2 Lost

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Good Luck You All In Week 12 NFL

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Hårr¥THëHÄT

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***Yesterday is not ours to recover, but tomorrow is ours to win or lose. The price of success is hard work, dedication & motivation when you are handicapping games with betting success in the NFL

 

[Biz]

Great job Harry, appreciate your insights.