gynecologist Kentucky Derby Breakdown of all horses..

[gynecologist]

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>#
</TH><TH>Silks</TH><TH>Horse</TH><TH>Trainer</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=odd><TD class=active>1
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>West Side Bernie

</TD><TD>Kelly Breen

Pretty much has no chance.. I want Revenge had 15 lengths of trouble and still blew by this horse last time.. Hold Me Back destroyed him too. Bad post and should run no better than 12th
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>2
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Musket Man

</TD><TD>Derek Ryan
Going in the right direction but has been facing much lesser competition.. Dont think he has the class to win, but at 25-1 or so isn't bad value.. I wouldn't be floored if he won, he's been in the $$ in every race but its just he seems like he doesnt have enough class to win.. I love Coa as a jock, he should give a good ride.
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>3
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Mr. Hot Stuff

</TD><TD>Eoin Harty
Full brother to Colonel John. Very good horse who hasn't shown his best yet.. Galloped out five lengths pass Nile and Candy in the SA Derby.. But for the Derby there isn't enough pace to set it up for this closer and he will be too far back and will have too much ground to make up.. Tab for the Belmont if he runs..
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>4
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Advice

</TD><TD>Todd Pletcher
Impressive turn of foot last time but against who? Lexington runners dont fare well in the DBY.. I think this horse has no chance of winning and is just not good enough.. </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>5
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Hold Me Back

</TD><TD>Bill Mott

Alot of people like this horse, personally I dont. Wouldn't be floored if he won but this horse will have to overcome to much and just seems a step below the rest.. Superfecta is the max I see.
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>6
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Friesan Fire

</TD><TD>Larry Jones
Obviously this horse is a monster, beat Papa Clem by 7 lenghts.. Has good tactical speed and should get the perfect trip laying 3rd or 4th.. Horse has the best workout going into the race with a 574 breezing. Trainer Larry Jones has ran 2nd the last two yrs of this race with Eight Bells and Hard Spun.. Fire is bred great top to bottom and he loves a wet track. Obvious major contender.
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>7
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Papa Clem

</TD><TD>Gary Stute
Nice horse, but got beat by Fire by over 7 lenghts.. I respect this horse but would be fairly surprised if he won. I think he's just a step below these. Great jockey and all but I just dont see a victory.. Not good enough
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>8
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Mine That Bird

</TD><TD>Bennie Woolley Jr.
No chance, has ran 8 times and none of those performaces would even merit a top 13 performance.. HUGE LONGSHOT with no chance..
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>9
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Join in the Dance

</TD><TD>Todd Pletcher
Will be a factor early in the race, but will quit by at least the 4 furlong pole. Hasn't ran a race that would merit a top 10 performace. no shot </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>10
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Regal Ransom

</TD><TD>Saeed bin Suroor
Probably the best speed horse in the race but I dont like the trip from Dubai to Kentucky. He has a shot because of the lack of solid front runners in the race and could definitely hit the TRI. But a win would suprise me, someone will mow this horse down..
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>11
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Chocolate Candy

</TD><TD>Jerry Hollendorfer
Improving horse, great jockey and went 7 wide last time in the SA Derby and still only lost by a length to PioneeroftheNile. No beyer over 94 turns me off and might not have the class but I have this horse at 24-1 and I think he's got a shot. If you like Nile then you have to like this one.. This one offers a better price.. Mike Smith is a great jockey who knows how to encounter traffic. Probably wont win but a big price why not..
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>12
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>General Quarters

</TD><TD>Thomas R. McCarthy
Nice consistent horse here, beat Musket Man beat Hold Me Back. Great story as trainer is a one man show as this is his only horse.. Dont think he has what it takes to win but if he hit the TRI I wouldn't be surprised.. Definitely a good horse who will probably run in the first 6-7..
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>13
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>I Want Revenge

</TD><TD>Jeff Mullins
I personally dont like favorites in the Derby and this horse is expected to be the fave..I dont see Jeff Mullins winning a derby, dont know why but I just can't imagine him winning a derby. Horse ran amazingly last time but the low price, trainer and young inexperienced jockey will make me pass. Can he win of course, this is a great horse, but not at the low price.. </TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>14
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Atomic Rain

</TD><TD>Kelly Breen
NO CHANCE, gets beat by all in here all the time.. Will be an early factor and will quit.. Might run 16th at best..
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>15
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Dunkirk

</TD><TD>Todd Pletcher
Dunkirk is the best horse in this race but has soooooo much to overcome. First no horse has won the Derby w/o running as a 2yr old in over 100 years. Dunkirk has only ran three times, and inexperienced horses have fared poorly in this race. If Dunkirk gets a perfect trip, doesn't mind the dirt in his face and can handle the 150k people yelling and screaming then he will probably win.. But thats a lot to overcome..

Pletcher 0-21 in this race.

</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>16
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Pioneerof the Nile

</TD><TD>Bob Baffert
Extremely consisent horse who always runs the same race. Baffert knows how to get them ready and he got the post he wanted.. Jon White from HRTV thinks this horse might win the Triple Crown. This May foal definitely has a shot, but you cant bet them all.. Chocolate Candy only lost by a length to Nile last time and is a much better price.. Respect but think this horse will run 3rd.. Dont know why but I think he will run 3rd or 4th.</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>17
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Summer Bird

</TD><TD>Tim Ice
Ran an awesome race last time for being so inexperienced. Not seasoned enough to win, but a nice horse nonetheless.. Wouldn't be shocked to this longshot ended up in the money. But won't win..
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>18
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Nowhere to Hide

</TD><TD>Nick Zito
Probably the worst horse in the race. No CHANCE, likely will run dead last. No factor whatsoever.
</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD class=active>19
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Desert Party

</TD><TD>Saeed bin Suroor
Horrible post position and again I dont like the Dubai to Derby trip. Good workouts from this one.. Very nice horse here but the post and trip from Dubai are too much to overcome.. Could hit the TRI with a perfect trip. If he lays third and avoids going to wide.
</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD class=active>20
</TD><TD class=silks> </TD><TD class=title>Flying Private

</TD><TD>D. Wayne Lukas
Will run 18th -20th.. No chance</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[joeyp]

very nice breakdown gman but i like either musket man or fresian fire to win this

 

[gynecologist]

I have a double ending to Musket Man. I'd like to see him win, Fresian Fire is a major contender.

 

[gremlinlad]

Thanks for your input on the horses in this year's KD. Greatly appreciated.

gl

 

[joeyp]

musket man

I have a double ending to Musket Man. I'd like to see him win, Fresian Fire is a major contender.

i got $10 doubles and $10 pick 3's ending with both of them

got 4 horse in the 10th and i would like to see a bomb either the 5 or 10 win that middle leg

 

[OAKAS]

Great breakdowns, gyno.

Thanks for posting this.

I am trying to talk myself into unloading on the 6.

Good luck tomorrow.:toast:

 

[gynecologist]

Thanks, lets cash some tickets tomorrow.

 

[Michelangelo]

Nice breakdown Gyno.

I always think price first. Especially in this race where favs have traditionally performed rather poorly. I'm gonna be on one of the Arab horses. Those guys had little luck in the Breeder's Cup 'till last year when they cleaned up. I think it's time for them to strut their stuff in the Triple Crown. Tough post for Desert Party but he has tactical speed. Shouldn't have much trouble using it to early advantage as this field is loaded with horses who like to take back early. Dominiquez is a smart rider. Remember Big Brown from the #20 hole.

Good luck man.

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Interesting read.. Thanks for posting it Gyno...

 

[Gravy]

Gyno,Just wanted to wish you good luck with your Derby picks today! Gravy

 

[billsfan]

GL today Gyno

 

[gynecologist]

Nice breakdown Gyno.

I always think price first. Especially in this race where favs have traditionally performed rather poorly. I'm gonna be on one of the Arab horses. Those guys had little luck in the Breeder's Cup 'till last year when they cleaned up. I think it's time for them to strut their stuff in the Triple Crown. Tough post for Desert Party but he has tactical speed. Shouldn't have much trouble using it to early advantage as this field is loaded with horses who like to take back early. Dominiquez is a smart rider. Remember Big Brown from the #20 hole.

Good luck man.

One good thing you have going for you is the fact that Goldophins owner Sheikh is their live.. He usually doesn't make the trip.

 

[gynecologist]

GL biillsey

 

[squeeze3]

Mr. Hot Stuff will win going away. He is the class of the field. This is gravy.

 

[gynecologist]

I dont think he's there yet.. Good horse but not developed enough.

 

[Jstack34]

Its chocolate time

 

[G.MONEY]

This is why they run the races....



Mine That Bird

Bennie Woolley Jr.
No chance, has ran 8 times and none of those performaces would even merit a top 13 performance.. HUGE LONGSHOT with no chance

 

[gynecologist]

Guess the slop really moved this horse up..

Horse looked like shit, couldn't even win at Sunland.. No Beyer over 81 3% trainer, not bred at all to run a 1 mile and 1/4..

Total fluke

 

[alteredegos]

Horses with a DI higher than 4.00 and a CD above 1.25 are considered unlikely to negotiate successfully the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. Thus, a DI higher than 4.00 and a CD higher than 1.25 mean too much speed and not enough stamina in a horse’s pedigree.


Mine That Bird (Birdstone ) 5.40 and 1.19

 

[Steelcurtain77]

Horses with a DI higher than 4.00 and a CD above 1.25 are considered unlikely to negotiate successfully the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby the first Saturday in May. Thus, a DI higher than 4.00 and a CD higher than 1.25 mean too much speed and not enough stamina in a horse’s pedigree.


Mine That Bird (Birdstone ) 5.40 and 1.19

Didn't Birdstone with the 1 1/2 Belmont Stakes? Just saying this dosage index hasn't been too accurate the last 10 years or so. I rather know that this horses sire won a 1 1/2 race, that horse's sire (Grindstone) won the Derby, and that horse's sire (Unbridled) also won the Derby.