Guys, I think Howard Dean is imploding before our eyes...

[D2bets]

I now think this is going to be a looooong race which could very possibly go to convention. It's going to be messy.

I now think Gephardt has a relatively good chance of taking Iowa, or in any case it will be a tight, unclean win for Dean. Same for NH, Clark may catch him but if not it will be tight, not a clean victory. Dean is not well prepared for Feb. 3 and with the new way delegates are split it will be very fractured.

If this were a basketball game, I'd say it's going to go to the buzzer.

 

[lander]

Let's hope so. Regardless of one's like or dislike for Governor Dean, he doesn't have much chance of winning the vote in South and/or Midwest. That's tough setback to overcome when you're facing an appointed incumbant IMO.

 

[dickman]

Before anything, I am a Republican. I think that Dean doesn't stand a chance against Pres. Bush. The ideal and much more competitive candidate would Clark. Currently, he is ideal for dealing with the current war against terrorism and is the most experienced out of all the candidates for these types of affairs.

Also, he is a southenor and that helps tremendously.

 

[D2bets]

Dean down to 57 (-133) at Tradesports. Clark up to 31. Kerry next at 9. Big move in the last 2 weeks.

 

[bunyon]

I'm a Democrat, but I'm also a realist. If things don't get a lot worse in Iraq and if the economy doesn't go in the tank, what are the Dems going to run against him on? Seriously, if the election was next week, what could any of the current candidates come up with that would be strong enough to defeat Bush?

 

[D2bets]

bunyon, reasonable concerns.

While Iraq and the economy appear better for the President now, they're still not immune from attack. Hundreds of Americans killed, endless billions spent, no WMD's found, and no clear end in sight for our occupation or overstrecthed military force. Sure, we got Saddam and he was a prick and a general menace. But at a time when OUR major concern is domestic terrorism, Osama and Al-Qaeda still have to be the target and this war has yet to be won. Bottomline on Iraq, a majority still support it but that same majority still has a general unease with how it's going and the benefit the war had to us in the global war on terror given the widespread alienation of our crucial allies. Bush is still vulberable on Iraq and national defense -- PARTICULARLY WHEN COMING FROM A 4-STAR GENERAL WHO TRULY UNDERSTANDS THE VALUE OF ALLIANCES.

As for the economy, it is clearly better than it was a year ago, particularly for those who track the economy by the smart market -- and these are indeed key voters. At the same time there is a feeling that Bush isn't focused on JOBS. This is still where Bush is weak, particularly if unemployment doesn't fall quite a bit. Frankly I've been disappointed that the candidates have scarecely talked about the deficit as this is another spot where Bush is soft, and this is where Dean scores some points.

All that aside, political realities are just that -- realities. And if a Dem is to have a prayer in 2004 then he will have to run strong in the Red states. Saw a poll today that Clark led Dean 26-14 in Red States. Overwhelmingly these are South and Midwest states. Coincedentally these are Dean's weak areas. This is not a good match. It's just the opposite for Clark, who is well-suited for the states and perfectly positioned to go toe-to-toe with Bush as events arise which will surely impact national security. Clark is in the center on tax policy wanting to reduce taxes progressively for families while rolling back cuts for the wealthy and increasing tax on the ultra-wealthy.

Where was I going with this? Oh, yeah...WESLEY CLARK CAN DEFEAT PRESIDENT BUSH (but Dean most likely cannot).

...BUT don't think for a second that Karl Rove dosn't realize this.

Ironically though, the one issue that has the greatest potential to harm Clark in the primaries -- namely that he is "really a Republican" -- is the same issue that will BENEFIT him in the General (no pun intended) Election. Hard to imagine Bush attacking Clark for being too conservative. Of course not. They want an opponent they can paint as too liberal. If they call Clark a liberal while Dems call him a Republican peple will conclude he is in the center -- and those are the voters the winner must capture. Combine that with someone they will see that understands how to keep us safe and comes off as Presidential and you have your formula to defeat Bush.

 

[bunyon]

D2....you are preaching to the converted my friend. But, I'm afraid the Dems can't drive your points home to the American people enough to defeat Bush. A lot can change it the time left before the election, but the Democratic Party is split to the point of not being able to unite. I don't care what the issues are, if the Dems don't unite & get out the vote it's over. The one thing that could really boost Clark is for the Clintons to come out of the shadows & really start pushing him. Are you expecting this to happen or is Bill & Hillary just going to go through the motions and concentrate on '08? IMO what I see happening is this....Bush will be re-elected in '04, then their will be a battle for the ages in the Democratic Party in '08 between Al Gore & Hillary Clinton. Anyone that doesn't see that coming is "blind as a bat". I believe '08 has everything to do with what Gore did & with what Hillary has done and will do.

 

[PatPatriot]

I have stated this before...look for a brokered convention...with a draft Hillary theme.This is falling into the Clintons hands perfectley.
Hillary will be annointed...and the press will be falling all over themselves covering her.She gets the nomination and dosen't have to go through the riggors or the scrutinity of the blood bath of the primaries...basically getting the nomination unscathed...Watch and see how these slippery bastards operate.
You heard it here first.

 

[PatPatriot]

Poll: Hillary Facing 2006 Trouble; Could Lose to Either Pataki or Giuliani

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton could lose her 2006 re-election bid to either former Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Gov. George Pataki, a new poll released Wednesday shows.

While Giuliani has topped Clinton in previous surveys, the latest Marist College poll shows that for the first time, she merely ties Gov. Pataki in a head-to-head match-up for 2006. Clinton had enjoyed a comfortable margin over Pataki in previous surveys for 2006.

The Marist poll shows Giuliani defeating the former first lady by a margin of 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. A Clinton-Pataki race would be a draw, 46 percent for both.

A September Marist survey had Clinton handily defeating Pataki, 52 percent to 44 percent. In October, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Giuliani defeating Clinton by a whopping 17-point margin.

Sen. Clinton's dimming 2006 prospects could cause her to reassess her stated intention not to accept a presidential draft at this summer's Democratic convention in Boston. Most experts say that she could not seek the White House in 2008 if she were to lose in 2006.

Two "Draft Hillary" organizations are currently up and running, spurred by the belief of many Democrats that only she can defeat President Bush in 2004.

In three surveys last fall - the last to include her name - more Democrats backed Clinton for president than all the other major candidates combined.

The blow to Mrs. Clinton's Senate re-election prospects comes despite an increase in her job approval rating, which now stands at a record high 55 percent, and an end-of-the-year Gallup poll which crowned her the most-admired woman in America.

Giuliani said last week that he would decide whether to challenge Mrs. Clinton after this year's elections. Gov. Pataki has not commented on the possibility of running against Clinton, but the two recently squabbled in public over the disbursement of 9/11 relief funds.

Marist surveyed 617 registered voters Jan. 6-7 and has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Editor's note:

All the more reason Hillary wants to be annointed.

 

[bunyon]

Patriot....I believe that a brokered convention is possible. Also speaking of surveys last fall, Al Gore was ahead in every poll in which his name was included versus the Dem candidates. So it's not "far fetched" to think a brokered convention could turn to him. IMO if Al Gore or Hillary Clinton had became a candidate, either of them would be so far ahead of the others by now it wouldn't be funny. But I wonder if Gore or Hillary actually thinks Bush is beatable. Its hard for me to believe both of these heavyweights would be sitting on the sidelines if they thought they had a realistic shot at beating Bush.

BTW.....Good luck to your Pats versus Indy

 

[PatPatriot]

Bunyon...thanks for wishing my beloved Pats good luck...I will be at the game.

 

[PatPatriot]

Thursday Jan. 15, 2004; 11:47 a.m. EST
Clinton Gang Behind Media Hits on Dean?

Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean is plummeting in the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire after a series of damaging reports tarnishing his image have appeared in the press.

Capitalizing on the Dean plunge is none other than the handpicked candidate of Bill and Hillary Clinton - Gen. Wesley Clark, whose poll numbers are skyrocketing as the media ignores one outrageous Clark blunder after another.

Is it a coincidence that Dean's political problems seem to have exploded as ex-president Clinton and his minions take a more active role in Gen. Clark's campaign?

On Tuesday the New York Post's Fred Dicker reported that Mr. Clinton was personally calling potential donors on Clark's behalf - despite the ex-president's public pledge to remain neutral.

On Wednesday the Clark campaign announced that a boatload of new staffers - Clintonistas all - would be added to his campaign to supplement the already bulging ranks of ex-Clinton officials running his operation.

That same day a confidential letter written to Clinton by Gov. Dean in 1995 was splashed across the front page of USA Today. The Vermont Democrat was urging the then-president to take unilateral military action in Bosnia - a position that makes his anti-war stance in Iraq seem more than a little hypocritical.

Speculation about how the press got their hands on Gov. Dean's private missive centered on Mr. Clinton. "I'd have to guess that Clinton leaked it himself, as part of his continuing effort to derail Howard Dean's campaign to clear the way for Hillary in 2008," posited top radio talker Rush Limbaugh.

Wednesday night the Dean campaign suffered another blow, when ABC News ran with a story that some are calling Howard Dean's "Troopergate."

In fact, the allusion to Mr. Clinton's earlier use of security guards to procure sex partners bore no resemblance to the Dean imbroglio, in which the Vermont governor is said to have once helped a state trooper in a child custody dispute who was later charged with wife beating.

For those who have bucked the Clintonista machine is days gone by, it must seem like a case of deja vu. Clinton sex accuser Kathleen Willey, for instance, had the same thing happen to her when the White House decided to release her personal letters to Clinton in 1998.

Others, like former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, saw ugly details from their private life suddenly splashed across the front pages, as happened just days before Giuliani decided to end his Senate bid against Hillary Clinton.

Giuliani's replacement in the race, Rep. Rick Lazio, was immediately targeted by the Clinton S.E.C, which launched a probe into a meager $16,000 profit on a Lazio investment.

While there's no smoking gun connecting Gen. Clark's campaign to the "unfortunate" revelations that have hit Gov. Dean in recent days, two of Mr. Clinton's most effective dirt diggers do indeed currently work in the Clark campaign.

Bruce Lindsey, referred to in press accounts as Mr. Clinton's "consigliere," joined the Clark team early on. Lindsey's most memorable accomplishments include digging up information to discredit witnesses who corroborated Paula Jones, and tamping down stories of Mr. Clinton's friskiness aboard his 1992 campaign plane.

Mickey Kantor is also now helping Clark in his battle against Dean. Past press accounts have detailed Kantor's efforts in securing out-of-country work for former Clinton paramours such as Elizabeth Ward Gracen.

Other veterans of the Clinton scandal wars now working for Clark include ex-Sen. David Pryor, longtime Clinton friend Skip Rutherford, Rep. Rahm Emanuel and Chris Lehane, who, before joining the Gore campaign in 2000, co-authored the written version of Hillary's Vast Right Wing Conspiracy fantasy, then-titled, "The Communications Stream of Conspiracy Commerce."

Lehane's partner in that endeavor, Mark Fabiani, is also on board the Clark train. When he wasn't helping Hillary spin her conspiracy theories, Fabiani was the White House press secretary in charge of scandal management. [Yes, the Clintons actually needed a press secretary dedicated to answering scandal questions].

With so many veterans of the Clinton attack machine currently working for Gen. Clark, Gov. Dean shouldn't be surprised that he faces a deluge of investigative dirt spread throughout the media as he comes down the home stretch in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The only question is: will Dean connect the dots and call the Clinton gang's bluff? Or will he allow himself to be steamrolled by the former president and his minions?



Editor's note: