[FONT="] the last decade ? only 1 year compares at this point- 2013. YTD the SPY is up 27.9%- this despite all kinds of noise, lol, including a sitting president who appears to be as stable as a 3-legged table . Can it take out 2013? 32.1%.....
my calls to be assigned . Is what it is, take the premium, be grateful .Have a bias to swing lows, so all-time highs arent my cup of tea.Set goals in my trading account, monthly /yearly and Vs the SPY, i'd recommend that to anyone: need a barometer . A habit/hobby is only useful if it makes u money on a relative basis /happy. Did not beat the spy for Nov, the 4 mth this year i did not, did beat my monthly target. Last Thursday /Friday formed double bullish pin/hammer candlesticks - I noted in post #212 but didnt pull the trigger- my calls/and position on Au affected what the candles were saying, haha, ah humanity ..
.....the Dimensional chaps edge ? (As per the seminar I attended ) institutional historical data has them with a portfolio tilted to large cap value and small cap value, in addition to giving their traders latidude when receiving portfolio managers trade requests daily. Was cool seeign the trading room, actually was awesome!..everyone is looking for an edge..
happy thanksgiving all[/FONT]
my calls to be assigned . Is what it is, take the premium, be grateful .Have a bias to swing lows, so all-time highs arent my cup of tea.Set goals in my trading account, monthly /yearly and Vs the SPY, i'd recommend that to anyone: need a barometer . A habit/hobby is only useful if it makes u money on a relative basis /happy. Did not beat the spy for Nov, the 4 mth this year i did not, did beat my monthly target. Last Thursday /Friday formed double bullish pin/hammer candlesticks - I noted in post #212 but didnt pull the trigger- my calls/and position on Au affected what the candles were saying, haha, ah humanity ..
.....the Dimensional chaps edge ? (As per the seminar I attended ) institutional historical data has them with a portfolio tilted to large cap value and small cap value, in addition to giving their traders latidude when receiving portfolio managers trade requests daily. Was cool seeign the trading room, actually was awesome!..everyone is looking for an edge..happy thanksgiving all
[/FONT]and add some bad numbers from Japan. OECD recently downgraded global growth for 2020 , projecting lowest since the financial crisis..the markets rolled over that news @)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...w-blames-governments-indecision-idUSKBN1XV124
and it looks like Japan likely planning a MASSIVE stimulus ..debt? who cares....lol...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fiscal-stimulus-with-little-concern-over-debt
Japan Eyes Big Fiscal Stimulus With Little Concern Over Debt
Japan looks set to re-embrace the power of public spending with one of its biggest ever stimulus packages.
Former deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada, a member of the opposition, says that the loosening fiscal stance of politicians both among the ruling and opposition parties is alarming.
“I’m very concerned about this emerging mood that there’s no need to address our spending and revenue,” Okada said. “There’s no doubt that Modern Monetary Theory has given some politicians the feeling of a sort of endorsement for more spending. But a frog in lukewarm water will end up boiled if the temperature keeps rising.”
fuckin' legend
Every time when I look in the mirror
All these lines on my face getting clearer
The past is gone
It went by, like dusk to dawn
Isn't that the way
Everybody's got the dues in life to pay
I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody sin
You got to lose to know how to win
Half my life
Is books, written pages
Live and learn from fools and
From sages
You know it's true, oh
All these feelings come back to you
Sing with me, sing for the years
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Dream on
Dream on4:27
Dream on
Dream until your dreams come true
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream until your dreams come true
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...w-blames-governments-indecision-idUSKBN1XV124
and it looks like Japan likely planning a MASSIVE stimulus ..debt? who cares....lol...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...fiscal-stimulus-with-little-concern-over-debt
Japan Eyes Big Fiscal Stimulus With Little Concern Over Debt
Japan looks set to re-embrace the power of public spending with one of its biggest ever stimulus packages.
Former deputy prime minister Katsuya Okada, a member of the opposition, says that the loosening fiscal stance of politicians both among the ruling and opposition parties is alarming.
“I’m very concerned about this emerging mood that there’s no need to address our spending and revenue,” Okada said. “There’s no doubt that Modern Monetary Theory has given some politicians the feeling of a sort of endorsement for more spending. But a frog in lukewarm water will end up boiled if the temperature keeps rising.”
fuckin' legend
Every time when I look in the mirror
All these lines on my face getting clearer
The past is gone
It went by, like dusk to dawn
Isn't that the way
Everybody's got the dues in life to pay
I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes
I know it's everybody sin
You got to lose to know how to win
Half my life
Is books, written pages
Live and learn from fools and
From sages
You know it's true, oh
All these feelings come back to you
Sing with me, sing for the years
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tears
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Yeah, sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Dream on
Dream on4:27
Dream on
Dream until your dreams come true
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream until your dreams come true
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Dream on
Sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
Maybe tomorrow, the good Lord will take you away
Sing with me, sing for the year
Sing for the laughter, sing for the tear
Sing with me, just for today
was cool to spend some time in beautiful Santa Monica, rental clubs were crapola had fun nonetheless. Paired with a retired senior couple and a transplanted New Yorker powerful accent at all.
i'll touch base on the Dimensional seminar later......market candles look good!! UUP with a massive green candle, punished GLD. Gold to test previous support levels ..MUST HOLD ($136), stops to be triggered if she cant , including mine
Holiday Notes:
1) Advise your Admin Asst to reschedule our Jan 4 tee time to *June 4* as I am now due in Colorado for early January to visit daughter&sonIL, checking out his state legal cannabis cultivation biz
2) Re Tesla, seems two most prominent questions are
a) In coming decade will the industry at large move towards a bigger market share for EVs or a smaller market share.....(Answer = Duh....)
b) Tesla currently manufactures approx 50% of the EVs worldwide. Will their company value increase? Or will it decrease?
FYI, I have joined the initial response to their upcoming Truck and am looking forward to it being the last truck I ever buy
VIX
3 mth daily
with volatility comes opportunity . There's a gap that formed with Friday's action; gaps fill on the VIX, always. The VIX is inversely related to the SPY.
its crazy early in the day, lets see today's candle at 3:50pm. Right NOW, the SPY has lost its 8 ema
here are some quotes from 'The Market Wizards" a series of books interviewing successful traders;
[FONT="]'The essential element is that the markets are ultimately based on human psychology, and by charting the markets you’re merely converting human psychology into graphic representations. I believe that the human mind is more powerful than any computer in analyzing the implications of these price graphs.'
'The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.'
[/FONT]
[FONT="]'Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”.I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary component of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.'[/FONT]
[FONT="]
'While the speculator doesn’t have the product knowledge or speed, he does have the advantage of not having to play. The speculator can choose to only bet when the odds are in his favor. That is an important positional advantage.'
'They personalize the market. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Whenever a trader says, “I wish,” or “I hope,” he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.'
'Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis.'
'I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstandingly intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important.'[/FONT]
3 mth daily
with volatility comes opportunity . There's a gap that formed with Friday's action; gaps fill on the VIX, always. The VIX is inversely related to the SPY.
its crazy early in the day, lets see today's candle at 3:50pm. Right NOW, the SPY has lost its 8 ema
here are some quotes from 'The Market Wizards" a series of books interviewing successful traders;
[FONT="]'The essential element is that the markets are ultimately based on human psychology, and by charting the markets you’re merely converting human psychology into graphic representations. I believe that the human mind is more powerful than any computer in analyzing the implications of these price graphs.'
'The key to long-term survival and prosperity has a lot to do with the money management techniques incorporated into the technical system. There are old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders.'
[/FONT]
[FONT="]'Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “funny-mentals”.I am primarily a trend trader with touches of hunches based on about twenty years of experience. In order of importance to me are: (1) the long-term trend, (2) the current chart pattern, and (3) picking a good spot to buy or sell. Those are the three primary component of my trading. Way down in a very distant fourth place are my fundamental ideas and, quite likely, on balance, they have cost me money.'[/FONT]
[FONT="]
'While the speculator doesn’t have the product knowledge or speed, he does have the advantage of not having to play. The speculator can choose to only bet when the odds are in his favor. That is an important positional advantage.'
'They personalize the market. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Whenever a trader says, “I wish,” or “I hope,” he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.'
'Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis.'
'I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstandingly intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important.'[/FONT]
maybe being called away was a good thing after all.....
SPY
6 month daily with 8 EMA
FINALLY loses its 8 EMA on MASSIVE volume, did fill the gap and bounced off it intra-day. 80% of the time gaps fill they reverse. A general guideline while riding an upleg , or rather, when do you take profits? a close below the 8 ema on a bearish candlestick (probabilites, nothing more....of course , other ways to do it, trailing stop etc etc.)..QQQ, DIA, IWM all lost their 8 ema's.
soft US PMI number , manufacturing drops for the 4th straight month + a knee-jerk angry Trump tariff tweet were likely today's catalyst. USD crushed. Unnerving was that Gold made no move . ...big day today, lots of sectors still overbought (xlv, ibb, xbi- severely so), $310 maybe challenged on the SPY, if so can she defend? ......more US data on Wed PMI (non-manufacturing). and then a biggie: non-farm payrolls Friday.....again that gap on the VIX will fill in due time
......
Dec opens up ugly, historically its a +ve month. Last 4 yrs have been all over the map.....
Dec 2015- -1.75%
Dec 2016- +1.82%
Dec 2017- +o.98%
Dec 2018- -9.18%
SPY
6 month daily with 8 EMA
FINALLY loses its 8 EMA on MASSIVE volume, did fill the gap and bounced off it intra-day. 80% of the time gaps fill they reverse. A general guideline while riding an upleg , or rather, when do you take profits? a close below the 8 ema on a bearish candlestick (probabilites, nothing more....of course , other ways to do it, trailing stop etc etc.)..QQQ, DIA, IWM all lost their 8 ema's.
soft US PMI number , manufacturing drops for the 4th straight month + a knee-jerk angry Trump tariff tweet were likely today's catalyst. USD crushed. Unnerving was that Gold made no move . ...big day today, lots of sectors still overbought (xlv, ibb, xbi- severely so), $310 maybe challenged on the SPY, if so can she defend? ......more US data on Wed PMI (non-manufacturing). and then a biggie: non-farm payrolls Friday.....again that gap on the VIX will fill in due time
......
Dec opens up ugly, historically its a +ve month. Last 4 yrs have been all over the map.....
Dec 2015- -1.75%
Dec 2016- +1.82%
Dec 2017- +o.98%
Dec 2018- -9.18%
enjoy the cash 
you have this chap to thank ;
President Donald Trump on Tuesday made some incendiary comments about the prospect of reaching a deal with China.
Here’s what Trump said at a London news conference: “A China trade deal is dependent on one thing — do I want to make it.” @)
Later, he added: “I have no deadline, no. In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth. But I’m not going to say that, I just think that.”
2/3 rd position in gold getting a lift .... To hopefully test her 50 SMA.
let's see today's candle for the markets. A close below 3100 on the ES is bearish for overnight. Data on wed can be positive; OPEC/US non-manu US . I'd kinda real real like for this gap to not fill today (spy gap down)
you have this chap to thank ;
President Donald Trump on Tuesday made some incendiary comments about the prospect of reaching a deal with China.
Here’s what Trump said at a London news conference: “A China trade deal is dependent on one thing — do I want to make it.” @)
Later, he added: “I have no deadline, no. In some ways, I think it’s better to wait until after the election if you want to know the truth. But I’m not going to say that, I just think that.”
2/3 rd position in gold getting a lift ...
. To hopefully test her 50 SMA.let's see today's candle for the markets. A close below 3100 on the ES is bearish for overnight. Data on wed can be positive; OPEC/US non-manu US . I'd kinda real real like for this gap to not fill today (spy gap down)
I think Lagarde delivers tomorrow with some kind of fiscal stimulus ; nice candles formed today on the international etfs in anticipation (EFA below to name one). I think what potentially can derail the SPY, send a long red candle ,is what happens on the weekend - Will Trump back off from tarifs or keep them, Dec 15th. Dunno, he likes to play hard ball when markets are strong,' , toppy (did it in May, and Aug), 'has room for a slip', if u will. NO way if the maket is tanking, not a peep from him late Dec 2018/Jan 2019. So , he could very well put the tariffs on given where the SPY is- so holding positions over the weekend is ballsy imo. Could gap down Monday. CERTAINLY, semiconductors arent blinking at his threat- all-time high for the SOXX today
EFA (international , non-N America)
3 mth daily
bettors came in on Lagarde delivering, NOT with conviction tho (lower vol); reclaims her 8 EMA, at the top of its consolidation pattern...needs GAS to blow through it. It likely gaps up if Lagarde delivers, and off it'll go
'...we got a plan, see ya'll tomorrow..........have a nice evening'
EFA (international , non-N America)
3 mth daily
bettors came in on Lagarde delivering, NOT with conviction tho (lower vol); reclaims her 8 EMA, at the top of its consolidation pattern...needs GAS to blow through it. It likely gaps up if Lagarde delivers, and off it'll go
'...we got a plan, see ya'll tomorrow..........have a nice evening'
nothing breathtaking out of Lagarde, basically falling in line with Draghi;
The European Central Bank has confirmed that it has restarted its stimulus programme, in an attempt to push inflation up.
[FONT="]It is buying €20bn of assets each month with newly-created money, and expects to keep running it “for as long as necessary”. The programme will end “shortly before” interest rates are raised, it adds.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This was Mario Draghi’s final major decision as ECB president before he stepped down at the end of October.[/FONT]
...............................
3rd time's the charm for GLD to break its 50 SMA?
The European Central Bank has confirmed that it has restarted its stimulus programme, in an attempt to push inflation up.
[FONT="]It is buying €20bn of assets each month with newly-created money, and expects to keep running it “for as long as necessary”. The programme will end “shortly before” interest rates are raised, it adds.[/FONT]
[FONT="]This was Mario Draghi’s final major decision as ECB president before he stepped down at the end of October.[/FONT]
...............................
3rd time's the charm for GLD to break its 50 SMA?
