tough day yesterday, GL today hope you clean the board
also im not happy with you on jax, i took Jets+7 and Eagles+1,5 for early games. but we can both still win this game since you got +3 in teaser
speaking of teasers i have an objection for you considering your teasers. Im sure you heard many time teasers are suckers bet, but i havent seen any math behind those statements so im gonna do it here.
Why teasers are bad bets? Short and sweet.
So let say you get -105 lines with you favorite low juice bookie. So you on average pay 5 cent for a privilege to bet.
For teaser you posted today (3 team 10 points), you get -130, but what are the real odds there (on average)?
From 2013 season up to today team cover if you get them extra 10 points 80,3% on average. So if you combine 3 of those probabilities you get 51,77% chance on average -thats -107 in odds and you are paying -130.
So you pay 23 cents instead of 5 (or 10 if you bet at standard bookie). So its clear it is better to bet those bets as singles, cuz in the long run you will win more/lose less.
As far as 6 points 2 teamers go, teasm cover 69% of those teasers, both teams 47,61% on average -thats +110 odds and you get only -110
that 20 cents juice again.
Dont know what more i can say except, if you bet teaser with low total, you are getting a better value, but atill only 3-5 cents on top of 20 or 23 juice
also, in college football, situation is even worse. so worse that you pay extremely high price on 10 point teasers (like 50 cents), because they cover at rate of 75% if you give them 10 points extra
I didnt do exact numbers for basketball but i dont expect bookies to be giving away money there either
also im not happy with you on jax, i took Jets+7 and Eagles+1,5 for early games. but we can both still win this game since you got +3 in teaser
speaking of teasers i have an objection for you considering your teasers. Im sure you heard many time teasers are suckers bet, but i havent seen any math behind those statements so im gonna do it here.
Why teasers are bad bets? Short and sweet.
So let say you get -105 lines with you favorite low juice bookie. So you on average pay 5 cent for a privilege to bet.
For teaser you posted today (3 team 10 points), you get -130, but what are the real odds there (on average)?
From 2013 season up to today team cover if you get them extra 10 points 80,3% on average. So if you combine 3 of those probabilities you get 51,77% chance on average -thats -107 in odds and you are paying -130.
So you pay 23 cents instead of 5 (or 10 if you bet at standard bookie). So its clear it is better to bet those bets as singles, cuz in the long run you will win more/lose less.
As far as 6 points 2 teamers go, teasm cover 69% of those teasers, both teams 47,61% on average -thats +110 odds and you get only -110
that 20 cents juice again.
Dont know what more i can say except, if you bet teaser with low total, you are getting a better value, but atill only 3-5 cents on top of 20 or 23 juice
also, in college football, situation is even worse. so worse that you pay extremely high price on 10 point teasers (like 50 cents), because they cover at rate of 75% if you give them 10 points extra
I didnt do exact numbers for basketball but i dont expect bookies to be giving away money there either
I agree, toples...the reason I post these ml parlays and teasers is that I got some emails a few years ago asking if i play parlays and teasers...i said i do ,with a goal of 5-10units per year. So, i told them i would post them. That's why I try and separate them out. Now, I will play few more in college hoops because I got frustrated a few years ago leading the whole game ,then someone will start missing free throws or I lose because of a half court shot at the end. It puts me in a tough spot because...I either count it in the record or if I dont, people will say....why aren't you counting that play etc...overall, I wouldnt follow any teasers or ml plays....just the straight plays. I guess the teasers/parlays give some people more action. Hope this helps but I fully agree with you.
