Why should New England faithful be dreading Gronk’s Madden 17 cover? Well, on top of the original and often stretched Madden curse – in which a series of injuries, ailments and poor play plagued past cover athletes - the Madden curse has a lot more weight behind it than just some tough breaks and off years.
Going back over the past 16 years of Madden covers, the featured players’ teams are a combined 115-150-7 ATS – covering the spread just 43 percent of the time. Overall, those teams are a collective 136-136 SU.
Last year’s cover man, receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and his New York Giants struggled to a 6-10 SU record but did managed to go 8-7-1 ATS.
The Madden “Betting” curse was especially tough on the first four solo players (and their teams) to grace the video game cover, with Eddie George (Tennessee), Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota), Marshall Faulk (St. Louis) and Michael Vick (Atlanta) totaling a 23-40-1 ATS record (30-34 SU) from 2000-01 to 2003-04. The Titans were the only team of those four to make the postseason and failed to cover in that single playoff game in 2001. Only six players featured on the Madden cover have led their team to the postseason that same season, going a collective 3-7 ATS in their playoff matchups.
Ray Lewis snapped the four-year ATS funk for Madden cover stars when Baltimore finished 9-7 ATS in 2004-05. The former Ravens linebacker is one of just four Madden cover players whose teams finished above .500 against the spread the season their Madden cover was released. Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona went 9-7 ATS the season he shared the Madden cover with Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu (5-10-1 ATS), Richard Sherman and Seattle closed the regular season with a 9-6-1 ATS record following the cornerback being voted on to the Madden 15 cover, and Beckham helped New York just squeak into the black at the book last season.
Now, there are some different ways to calculate the Madden “Betting” curse due to a few “quirks” in the Madden cover calculations, but they don’t really make much of a difference when it comes to the betting impact of the curse:
First, a retired Brett Favre was featured on the Madden 2009 cover before the 2008-09 NFL season, with EA Sports thinking the Green Bay Packers’ gunslinger had hung up his Wranglers. As we painfully now know, Favre was far from done and joined the New York Jets that season, finishing 7-9 ATS. His former team, the Packers didn’t do much better with an 8-8 ATS mark in Aaron Rodgers' first year as the No. 1 QB.
The second is the Madden 25 – or 25th Anniversary cover – which allowed fans to vote for players past and present to be featured on the front of the box. Detroit Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders won, and the Lions – even though Sanders was long retired – finished 6-10 ATS in 2013-14 (the record we used for 2013-14). However, a second Madden 25 cover was released along with the next-generation gaming consoles, Xbox One and PlayStation 4, in November 2013. That one featured Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson, and the Vikings finished the year 9-7 ATS.
The Madden "Betting" Curse hasn't impacted the ATS fortunes of all of the cover athletes, but the best ATS record in that 15-season span was Sherman and the Seahawks finished 9-6-1 ATS (12-4 SU) in 2014. The worst outbreak of the Madden "Betting" Curse was Faulk and the 2002-03 Rams, who finished 4-12 ATS (7-9 SU).