Still not ready to come back "for real" but I have been doing a WHOLE bunch of number crunching and have found something pretty interesting, so I am going to "test drive" it in the 3 contests that are going here starting with tonight's games.
Amazing how much more objective one can be when on the outside looking in !!
There is still insufficient data to make too much of what I figured out, since I am only using Tuesday and Wednesday's games in my sample...but if the trend continues through Sunday I may be on to something.
The system is 6-4 over the last two days, but one of the losses is last night's Seattle UNDER that lost because of OT, so call that what you will. The more telling stat is this one.....over the last two days, the betting line has varied from the final score by an average of 11.45 points, while the average varience using my calcs has been 9.75
As always, this only involves totals....no sides.
In November and December, even though I was hitting at 56%, my varience was higher than the line varience.
Like I said, this is just a two day sample....19 games.....so it is WAY premature to get all worked up about, but I feel at this point like it is worth a monopoly money investment.
The calcs on tonights games are as follows..:
Chicago: 177.7
San Antonio: 202.8
Sacramento: 219.1
As much as it is said (correctly) that nobody can hit more than 60% in the long run, I think it is equally correct that nobody can come within 10 of a total in the long run, so 9.75 (while a great start) is an unreasonable long-run expectation. My hope is to keep my average in the 12-13 range.....and if that happens, I would suggest paying serious attention. But for now, let's just see what happens.
Amazing how much more objective one can be when on the outside looking in !!
There is still insufficient data to make too much of what I figured out, since I am only using Tuesday and Wednesday's games in my sample...but if the trend continues through Sunday I may be on to something.
The system is 6-4 over the last two days, but one of the losses is last night's Seattle UNDER that lost because of OT, so call that what you will. The more telling stat is this one.....over the last two days, the betting line has varied from the final score by an average of 11.45 points, while the average varience using my calcs has been 9.75
As always, this only involves totals....no sides.
In November and December, even though I was hitting at 56%, my varience was higher than the line varience.
Like I said, this is just a two day sample....19 games.....so it is WAY premature to get all worked up about, but I feel at this point like it is worth a monopoly money investment.
The calcs on tonights games are as follows..:
Chicago: 177.7
San Antonio: 202.8
Sacramento: 219.1
As much as it is said (correctly) that nobody can hit more than 60% in the long run, I think it is equally correct that nobody can come within 10 of a total in the long run, so 9.75 (while a great start) is an unreasonable long-run expectation. My hope is to keep my average in the 12-13 range.....and if that happens, I would suggest paying serious attention. But for now, let's just see what happens.
