Green Valley HOME FAVORITE system

[barbierse]

What about Pitts?

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr id="head" class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td class="columnrow" align="left" width="40%">7:05 pm</td><td class="columnrow" align="center" width="20%">Standings</td><td class="columnrow" align="center" width="20%">W-L</td><td class="columnrow" align="center" width="20%">Strk</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td class="name" align="left">Washington </td><td class="scorerow" align="center">5th NL EAST</td><td class="scorerow" align="center">(32-47)</td><td class="scorerow" align="center">L 4</td></tr><tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="middle"><td class="name" align="left">Pittsburgh </td><td class="scorerow" align="center">4th NL CENT</td><td class="scorerow" align="center">(34-45)</td><td class="scorerow" align="center">W 1</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id="alerts1198043" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="scoresrow"><td><table class="scoresrow" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td id="plays1198043" valign="top">WAS: Simontacchi (5-5, 5.81)
PIT: Gorzelanny (7-4, 3.10)</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[eppy224]

Pit won last night. Chase is over for them.

 

[eppy224]

Maybe they were not a play because Was is on a 3 game losing streak.

By the way Bookie Buster, yopu do a fantastic job with this Thread. Good Man!

 

[barbierse]

Pit won last night. Chase is over for them.

From what I understand, this is not a chase system :think2:
Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[eppy224]

No "Barb", you're right. I'm wrong. Not a chase...Sorry

 

[ToddInVegas]

I think there might be a little confusion between the two Green Valley systems.

The Home Favorite System is not a Chase system. A home favorite with a 2 or greater ERA spread is play. The Home Favorite ERA must be less then 4 and each starter must have 3 starts.

Year to Date the system is 43-16

Saturdays plays are/were:

1 - Baltimore
2 - Detroit
3 - Boston
4 - Pittsburgh

The Over/Under System is a 3 game Chase. A team with a greater then 57% Over/Under percentage is the play after the team goes two games in the opposite direction.

Example...earlier this week Tampa Bay had an Over % greater then 57. They went under two games in a row. A three game Over chase began. Unfortunately they went under all three games and the series was a loss. The series ends anytime there is a push

There were no plays for Saturday.

hope this clears it up
The year to date for the Over/Under system is 43-2-3

 

[BillyWaltersJr+]

I think there might be a little confusion between the two Green Valley systems.

The Home Favorite System is not a Chase system. A home favorite with a 2 or greater ERA spread is play. The Home Favorite ERA must be less then 4 and each starter must have 3 starts.

Year to Date the system is 43-16

Saturdays plays are/were:

1 - Baltimore
2 - Detroit
3 - Boston
4 - Pittsburgh

The Over/Under System is a 3 game Chase. A team with a greater then 57% Over/Under percentage is the play after the team goes two games in the opposite direction.

Example...earlier this week Tampa Bay had an Over % greater then 57. They went under two games in a row. A three game Over chase began. Unfortunately they went under all three games and the series was a loss. The series ends anytime there is a push

There were no plays for Saturday.

hope this clears it up
The year to date for the Over/Under system is 43-2-3

Do you know the monetary stats of each system (per a $100 bettor and such)?

Seems like a couple of solid systems, why are there so many plays today when there have only been 59 plays coming into todays action?

 

[ToddInVegas]

Do you know the monetary stats of each system (per a $100 bettor and such)?

Seems like a couple of solid systems, why are there so many plays today when there have only been 59 plays coming into todays action?

1 - As far as the monetary stats for each one. Based on a quick estimate The Home favorite system would be approx + 20 -25 units. The system is based on the moneyline and the Favorites average -140 to -150. So for the 16 losses you would be down approx 26 units. Subtract that from the 43 for your wins and you are up approx 20 units. Obviously moneylines are different on each play. This is only a rough estimate.

For the Over Under chase system each series loss would be approx a 7 to 8 unit hit, once again depending on what line you get the game at. For the Over / Under chase system you are up approximately 30 units on the season.

2 -The reason there are only 59 plays so far is because the System began May 1st, giving the teams a month to build up statistics. Also, interleague play is not included because there are too many variables between the leagues that make the system ineffective.

Again, I cant take credit for either of these systems, Green Valley is the one that introduced them. I'm just answering a few questions because I dont think he posts very often

 

[ToddInVegas]

For the Home Favorite System, something to consider would be taking the favorites at -1. I wouldnt recommend the standard -1.5 because you would be giving up too much. At -1 you will get a few more push games but you will not lose as many as you would at -1.5

Just something to consider as a lot of the favorites have high moneylines

To calculate how to get a -1 spread see this thread

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=483031&highlight=calculating

 

[Stabler12]

Thanks Todd, for the explanation of GV's system and the link to the thread for making the -1 line.:toast:

 

[Betting4Fun]

I think there might be a little confusion between the two Green Valley systems.

The Home Favorite System is not a Chase system. A home favorite with a 2 or greater ERA spread is play. The Home Favorite ERA must be less then 4 and each starter must have 3 starts.

Year to Date the system is 43-16

Saturdays plays are/were:

1 - Baltimore
2 - Detroit
3 - Boston
4 - Pittsburgh

The Over/Under System is a 3 game Chase. A team with a greater then 57% Over/Under percentage is the play after the team goes two games in the opposite direction.

Example...earlier this week Tampa Bay had an Over % greater then 57. They went under two games in a row. A three game Over chase began. Unfortunately they went under all three games and the series was a loss. The series ends anytime there is a push

There were no plays for Saturday.

hope this clears it up
The year to date for the Over/Under system is 43-2-3

Todd ,Detroit is not a play since Minnesota pitcher had only 2 starts and minimum starts to apply for a play of any of the listed pitchers must be 3.

The other 3 are the plays for today.we got 1 dog leading,Pitts got this easy and Boston seems like losing,from what i have noticed so far especially the last week or so is ,each time there is a strong favorite by the book with odds over -200 the dog wins,looks like Texas might be doing this tonight too since Boston was @ -250,so my conclusion so far is betting on the favorites as long as the odds lower than -200,if over i go with the dogs.

 

[ToddInVegas]

Todd ,Detroit is not a play since Minnesota pitcher had only 2 starts and minimum starts to apply for a play of any of the listed pitchers must be 3.

The other 3 are the plays for today.we got 1 dog leading,Pitts got this easy and Boston seems like losing,from what i have noticed so far especially the last week or so is ,each time there is a strong favorite by the book with odds over -200 the dog wins,looks like Texas might be doing this tonight too since Boston was @ -250,so my conclusion so far is betting on the favorites as long as the odds lower than -200,if over i go with the dogs.

Betting4fun...I think you are confusing starts with decisions. The system is based on minimun 3 starts.

Kevin Slowley entered todays game with 2 decision (2-0) but had made 5 starts (June 1st vs Oakland, June 6th vs LAA, June 12 vs ATL, June 17th vs Mil, June 25th vs Tor) Therefore, Detroit was a play unfortunately.

As far as the huge favorites, Green Valley mentioned that he would pass if it was too high....not really worth the risk i guess. For me I'll lay a run if I think its a good play and hopefully get the number down to a decent level. Betting the dogs is also an option too.

I guess bottom line is that you dont necessarily play it blind, you have to be comfortable with the play.

 

[quantumleap]

I believe Baltimore was a home dog today. The Angels were the favorite.

 

[Stabler12]

My suggestion on faves would be to have a cap for the price you'll lay, say -170 or -150, it could be whatever your personal limit is. The higher priced faves have to win at an extraordinary rate to be profitable, so the value of the system lies in the smaller faves and dogs, IMO.

 

[ToddInVegas]

I believe Baltimore was a home dog today. The Angels were the favorite.

Correct. My mistake. There were only the three plays for today

1- Detroit
2 -Pittsburgh
3 - Boston

 

[ToddInVegas]

My suggestion on faves would be to have a cap for the price you'll lay, say -170 or -150, it could be whatever your personal limit is. The higher priced faves have to win at an extraordinary rate to be profitable, so the value of the system lies in the smaller faves and dogs, IMO.

Exactly. The majority of the plays have been around the -140 to -150 range but there have been times when they are very high.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Correct. My mistake. There were only the three plays for today

1- Detroit
2 -Pittsburgh
3 - Boston

I see no reason to eliminate a dog in this situation. You get a good price on a pitcher with a 2 run better era at home. Why not play the dog in that situation.

 

[ToddInVegas]

I see no reason to eliminate a dog in this situation. You get a good price on a pitcher with a 2 run better era at home. Why not play the dog in that situation.

I agree. I dont think it happens that often so it would be worth the play. I think the idea of the system is to play the team with the ERA advantage regardless of whether they are the favorite. I am guessing that Green Valley only worded it that way because it would usually be the favorite with the better ERA.

 

[Bookie Buster]

There were not 3 plays today just ONE and it was the ONE I posted and it will be the ONE that is tracked.

BB

 

[Bookie Buster]

Listen talk all about the system but do not add to it and do not change it I will be tracking it as the system is stated on the 1st page.

All you are doing is confusing people that are trying to follow the system.

Thanks,

BB