Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears 12/16/2012

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Expect a close game with the Green Bay Packers winning 59% of simulations, and the Chicago Bears 41% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Green Bay Packers commit fewer turnovers in 47% of simulations and they go on to win 80% when they take care of the ball. The Chicago Bears wins 61% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Alex Green is averaging 35 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (11% chance) then he helps his team win 80%. Matt Forte is averaging 67 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (20% chance) then he helps his team win 63%.
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